Will Nasdaq Stock Move On Its Approachinging Earnings?
Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ) is expected to release its earnings on Thursday, July 24, 2025, covering a quarter that experienced a surge in both the Nasdaq 100 index and U.S. stocks, reaching new all-time high levels. Revenues are anticipated to increase by approximately 9% year-over-year to $1.26 billion, while earnings are forecasted to be around $0.79 per share, reflecting an increase of about $0.10 compared to the same time last year. Several factors have been affecting the company's performance in recent months, such as heightened demand for technology and data solutions, as well as a greater proportion of recurring and software-based sales driven by a transition to subscription models. Furthermore, the exchange has been observing strong interest in Nasdaq-linked index products, which may enhance trading volume and fee income.The company possesses a current market capitalization of $51 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated revenue of $7.8 billion and achieved operational profitability with $2.1 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.3 billion. While much will rely on how the outcomes compare to consensus and expectations, recognizing historical trends could potentially give an advantage if you are an event-driven trader. There are two methods to achieve this: comprehend the historical odds and position yourself before the earnings release, or analyze the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns following the earnings announcement and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are disclosed. That being said, if you are looking for growth with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and yielded returns surpassing 91% since its launch.
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Nasdaq's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized alongside the statistics in the table provided below.
5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky approach (though not beneficial if the correlation is weak) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair that exhibits the strongest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves as 'long' for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) historical trends. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can affect the stock's reaction following earnings. In fact, the pricing-in may commence prior to the earnings announcement. Below is some historical data regarding the past post-earnings performance of Nasdaq stock in comparison to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Nasdaq. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
Correlation With Peer Earnings
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