Thai Central Bank Contender Touts Need to Work With Government
'As we have very limited resources, every bullet that we use would have to be more effective,' Deputy Governor Roong Mallikamas said in an interview in Bangkok on Tuesday. 'That probably could be done only if we were in collaboration and our policies are directed in the same direction in a cohesive manner and better coordinated.'
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5 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Japan's Ishiba vows to stay on after election defeat
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition has failed to secure a majority in Sunday's election for the 248-seat upper house of parliament, Japan's public NHK TV outlet said. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), already in a minority in the lower house since last October's snap election, faced mounting public discontent over inflation, political scandals, and a surge in anti-immigration sentiment. LDP, Komeito fall short in upper house The LDP and its junior partner Komeito needed to win 50 of the 125 contested seats, on top of the 75 seats they already have. They fell short, however, getting only 46 of the seats up for grabs. In recent years, such an electoral defeat has usually led to a prime minister's resignation. Ishiba, however, vowed to stay on in order to lead Japan through the difficult terrain of striking a trade deal with the US in the face of looming tariffs. "We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United must never ruin these negotiations," he told a press conference after vowing to stay on as party leader through the trade talks. The loss is another blow to Ishiba's coalition, making it a minority in both houses following its October defeat in the lower house election, It is the first time the LDP has lost a majority in both houses of parliament since the party's foundation in 1955. The poor performance in the election will not immediately trigger a change of government because the upper house lacks the power to file a no-confidence motion against a leader. Despite his determination to stay on, Ishiba could face calls from within his party to step down or find another coalition partner. Rise of the 'Japanese First' party The surge of the right-wing populist Sanseito party complicated the election. Once a fringe movement, spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and global elites during the COVID-19 pandemic on YouTube, the party is now gaining momentum with its "Japanese First" rhetoric and criticism of immigration, globalism, and foreign capital. Sanseito is expected to win 14 seats in the upper house, appealing especially to young male voters. Its leader, Sohei Kamiya, has drawn comparisons to Trump and Germany's AfD for his anti-establishment stance and social media reach. On Sunday, a Sanseito candidate's interview by Russia's Sputnik news agency courted controversy and prompt denials of ties to Russia by Kamiya, according to AFP news agency. The European Union has banned Sputnik along with other Russian state media for "disinformation and information manipulation." Edited by: Alex Berry, Wesley Dockery
Yahoo
8 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Singapore NODX surges 13% y-o-y in June, economists mixed on forecasts
Some analysts see that frontloading could dampen growth in the second half, compounded by potential drag from US reciprocal tariffs. Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) 13% y-o-y climb in the month of June on the back of continued frontloading ahead of US President Donald Trump's July 8 deadline has inspired largely neutral outlooks from economists. Economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee Shun Rong at Maybank Securities (Maybank) have upgraded their 2025 NODX forecast to 4%, which they note implies a slower growth of 2.8% in the second half. At the same time, the pair are reiterating their 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 3.2%. Chua and Lee had previously upgraded their GDP forecast to 2.4%, following stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter. RHB Bank Singapore's (RHB) Barnabas Gan and Laalitha Raveenthar have also upgraded their NODX forecast for the full year to 2.0% from an initial 0.0%. At the same time, they retain their 2025 GDP forecast at 2.0% Fellow economist from UOB Global Economics and Market Research (UOB) Jester Koh is keeping his 2025 NODX forecast of 1.0% to 3.0% unchanged, while Oxford Economics' Sheana Yue has kept her 2025 GDP projection of 2.0% growth unchanged. The 13.3% surge included a $1.3 billion contribution from gold, without which NODX growth would have come in at 3.4% y-o-y. Non-oil re-export (NORX) growth meanwhile grew 18.5% y-o-y. Chua and Lee note that Singapore's exports of semiconductors, specialised machinery and other electronic components have benefited from broadening artificial intelligence (AI) demand and exemptions from reciprocal tariffs. Around 61% of Singapore's exports to the US, by their estimates, are currently exempted from reciprocal tariffs, including semiconductors, electronics, pharmaceuticals and energy. Electronics NODX accelerated, growing 8% y-o-y on the back of double-digit expansions in integrated circuits (IC), personal computers (PC) and bare printed circuit boards (PCB). By market, demand climbed the most in Japan at 76.6%, Hong Kong at 45.9%, Indonesia at 29.8% and South Korea at 27.2%. Meanwhile, electronics NORX grew by 26.2% y-o-y in June, owing to PCs, ICs and telecommunications equipment. Aggregate NORX rose by 18.5% y-o-y, after a 16.2% increase in the preceding month, led by Taiwan at 96%, the US at 64.3% and Hong Kong at 26.7%. Growth in non-electronics exports climbed to 14.5% y-o-y, driven by non-monetary gold which leapt 211.9% y-o-y, specialised machinery at 31.4% y-o-y and lastly, other specialty chemicals at 20.1%. On the other hand, the export of pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals contracted 13.7% y-o-y and 10.2% y-o-y respectively in June, with the latter declining for the fourth consecutive month. NODX declines in Europe (EU), Thailand, Malaysia, US, Indonesia and Japan were offset by growth across Hong Kong at 54.4%, Taiwan at 28.3%, South Korea at 33% and China at 8.5%. 'Some exports may have been diverted from the EU during the 90-day reprieve, as manufacturing supply cannot be ramped up quickly to meet import demand,' write Chua and Lee. Exports to Europe, note Chua and Lee, will 'likely recover and catch up' following the oncoming US reciprocal tariffs effective August. They add: 'This will help offset and cushion any export slowdown to the US in the second half.' In June, NODX to Hong Kong at 54.4% and Taiwan at 28.3% were led by specialised machinery and semiconductor chips, while exports to South Korea were driven by specialised machinery at 77.9%, measuring instruments at 202.7% and PCs at 195.3%. Chua and Lee note that non-monetary gold was a prominent driver of exports to China and Hong Kong, with gold exports to China surged 2222% y-o-y in June. Excluding gold, NODX to China fell 3.3% y-o-y, for the ninth consecutive month, while gold exports to Hong Kong jumped 71.1% y-o-y. Overall, Maybank's Chua and Lee expect the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) to upgrade its GDP forecast range for 2025 to 2% to 3%, once final numbers on the 2Q2025 GDP are released in August. They also expect Enterprise Singapore to upgrade its full year export forecast from the current conservative 1% to 3% range, as first half NODX growth came in higher than expected at 5.2%. Exports and manufacturing growth will likely slow after higher reciprocal tariffs for the region kick in on Aug 1, note Chua and Lee. According to them, positives that will mitigate the payback and severity of the second half export slowdown are relatively lower US tariffs, broadening global AI demand and US-China de-escalation with a probable extension of the US-China tariff truce beyond Aug 12. 'Singapore faces the lowest US reciprocal tariff in Asia, at about 5.1% in effective terms by our estimates, below the 10% baseline tariff rate due to the current exemptions,' write Chua and Lee. In the US, wholesale inventories have been rising modestly over the last few months as companies stock up, but US retail inventories have not shown any visible increase. On this, Chua and Lee write: 'We think that the US inventory overhang post-reciprocal tariffs may only last several months before companies have to replenish their stock and order more imports.' While they see export growth to 'likely moderate' in the second half, given the stronger-than-expected growth in the first half, Chua and Lee expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its current modest appreciation bias for the upcoming meetings. 'We lower our three-month Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) forecast to 1.5% by end-2025 and 1.2% by end-2026, as safe haven flows continue to dampen domestic interest rates,' write Chua and Lee. Should the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) cut rates in the second half, this could also drive short-term interest rates lower, the pair add. Looking ahead, UOB's Koh sees that 'payback' from earlier frontloading is likely to dampen growth in the second half, compounded by potential drag from US reciprocal tariffs. 'However, in our view, the eventual growth 'payback' may be more pronounced in trade-related services rather than in manufacturing, as frontloading seems to be more pronounced in electronics exports and less so in non-electronics exports and manufacturing,' writes Koh. Any further growth drag in these sectors, he adds, is likely to stem from weaker demand due to the tariffs themselves. RHB's Gan and Raveenthar note that although June's NODX numbers offer a 'welcome reprieve' and underscore the resilience of Singapore's trade architecture—especially its regional diversification—it 'should not be viewed' as a structural re-rating of the external sector. The pair adds: 'The fundamental backdrop remains mixed, with a delicate balance between cyclical recovery and looming protectionist headwinds.' Meanwhile, on Singapore's GDP in the second quarter, Oxford Economics' Yue sees that readings from the quarter will be 'revised upwards' from advanced estimates released earlier this week. On NODX, Yue has a slightly more prolonged outlook with regards to the frontloading boost than her fellow economists, noting that the process is "straightforward". 'The extension of the tariff suspension deadline to Aug 1 could further support goods exports. That said, we anticipate any remaining resilience to diminish over the upcoming months, especially if higher tariffs are imposed in the 3Q2025,' writes Yue. She adds that Singapore could benefit from an established re-exporting sector and a lower reciprocal tariff, while a structural shift in AI-linked electronics demand should continue to be a tailwind. Yue surmises: 'Therefore, although export growth is expected to decelerate, a collapse in 2025 is unlikely.' Senior economist at DBS Bank, Chua Han Teng, agrees that NODX of 16.5% y-o-y in the 1H2025 is unsustainable, with the front-loading of shipments eventually being followed by a 'payback' through decelerating trade and manufacturing production to materialise in the second half. 'The city-state's external demand will likely face downward pressures, due to still-high global trade frictions and continued uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, such as the potential imposition of US sectoral tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceutical goods,' writes Chua. See Also: Click here to stay updated with the Latest Business & Investment News in Singapore Economists raise 2025 GDP forecast following 2Q flash estimate but stay wary on 2H Singapore, London are costliest cities for luxury spending New grant for local firms to seek advice, subsidies as Trump's tariffs bite Read more stories about where the money flows, and analysis of the biggest market stories from Singapore and around the World Get in-depth insights from our expert contributors, and dive into financial and economic trends Follow the market issue situation with our daily updates Or want more Lifestyle and Passion stories? 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Yahoo
35 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Shareholders in Metis Energy (SGX:L02) are in the red if they invested three years ago
Metis Energy Limited (SGX:L02) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 23% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 44% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return. With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. Because Metis Energy made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size. Over the last three years, Metis Energy's revenue dropped 33% per year. That means its revenue trend is very weak compared to other loss making companies. On the face of it we'd posit the share price fall of 13% compound, over three years is well justified by the fundamental deterioration. It would probably be worth asking whether the company can fund itself to profitability. The company will need to return to revenue growth as quickly as possible, if it wants to see some enthusiasm from investors. The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail). You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic. A Different Perspective Investors in Metis Energy had a tough year, with a total loss of 23%, against a market gain of about 27%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 1.6% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Metis Energy is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are a bit unpleasant... But note: Metis Energy may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast). Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
