logo
Risk of Severe Weather Looms Over Eastern Half of the U.S.

Risk of Severe Weather Looms Over Eastern Half of the U.S.

New York Times16-05-2025
Large portions of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic are at significant risk of severe weather on Friday, as a multiday storm system moves slowly to the East. A bull's-eye centered over southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois and Indiana and central and western Kentucky highlighted an area at risk for some of the most severe thunderstorms.
These storms will be capable of unleashing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, possibly some strong ones.
'I'd be surprised if we didn't see some tornadoes in that corridor,' said Aaron Gleason, a meteorologist with the Storm Prediction Center.
Here are the key things to know:
The threat of thunderstorms on Friday generally stretches from eastern Texas into the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast and is concentrated over the middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley with varying degrees of risk.
'It's a fairly broad area for severe potential, and it looks like all hazards could be possible,' Mr. Gleason said.
The area of highest concerns includes the cities of Bloomington, Ind.; Evansville, Ind.; Louisville, Ky.; and St. Louis.
Those areas are at particular risk of supercells, highly organized, longer-lasting storms that produce even stronger winds and larger hail — in the case of Friday, bigger than baseballs — than typical thunderstorms.
'The same storms that produce very large hail are also the ones that we tend to be most concerned about from a tornado perspective,' Mr. Gleason said. 'There are probably going to be a lot of storms and a lot severe reports if things work out as forecast, unfortunately.'
The National Weather Service office in St. Louis warned of hail of nearly three inches, damaging winds and a 'low chance of a strong tornado.'
The clash between a cool air mass dropping down from the north and warm, moist air coming in from the Gulf will help create the sort of instability in the atmosphere on Friday that can fuel powerful thunderstorms. That moisture flow will also deliver some rain over the Ohio Valley into the mid-Mississippi Valley and the South on Friday.
'Parts of Kentucky particularly and southern Ohio will have the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms and each producing heavy rain,' said Richard Bann, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.
The threat of thunderstorms comes to the Midwest in a week marked by unseasonably warm weather. The heat is expected to continue on Friday with many locations across the region forecast to record afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s. Lower temperatures are predicted to arrive this weekend as cooler drier air sweeps in from the northwest.
'It's an active period and nothing unusual for May,' Mr. Gleason said. 'This is typically when a lot of severe weather tends to occur across the country.'
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Long-duration heat wave grips Denver and eastern Colorado, fire danger rising
Long-duration heat wave grips Denver and eastern Colorado, fire danger rising

CBS News

time14 minutes ago

  • CBS News

Long-duration heat wave grips Denver and eastern Colorado, fire danger rising

A long-duration heat wave is underway across Denver and much of eastern Colorado, with 7 to 10 straight days of highs at or above 90 degrees expected. The hottest afternoons will be on Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures near 98 degrees. A few showers are possible each day, but the chance is only 10 to 20 percent. With dry air at the surface, most areas will see more wind than rain as virga occurs. Any rainfall won't be enough to ease the heat or growing fire danger. Red flag warnings are in place for the Crosho Fire and portions of the Continental Divide on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widespread high fire danger will spread across the high country and the Continental Divide, reaching the foothills by Thursday and Friday. Dry thunderstorms could spark new fires, making the end of the week potentially active for fire weather across Colorado.

FEMA's Flood Maps Are Basically Lies
FEMA's Flood Maps Are Basically Lies

Gizmodo

time43 minutes ago

  • Gizmodo

FEMA's Flood Maps Are Basically Lies

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Maps, often referred to simply as flood maps, outline flood risk. The maps are critical to determining the need for flood insurance, construction restrictions, floodplain management, and hazard mitigation. There's just one problem—75% of FEMA's maps are out of date. Writing for The Conversation, Jeremy Porter, a City University of New York researcher who studies flood-risk mapping at the nonprofit organization First Street, argues that the maps' overreliance on historical data and failure to include climate change impact are partially to blame. After horrific flash floods claimed over 100 lives in Texas' Kerr County in July, including children at a summer camp, the inaccurate flood maps' public safety implications are once again in the spotlight. 'While FEMA has improved the accuracy and accessibility of the maps over time with better data, digital tools and community input, the maps still don't capture everything—including the changing climate,' Porter wrote. 'There are areas of the country that flood, some regularly, that don't show up on the maps as at risk.' Specifically, a 2023 assessment by First Street, which conducts climate risk financial modeling, revealed that over two times as many properties in the United States were at risk of a 100-year flood (a flood that has a 1% chance of taking place any year) than those outlined in the FEMA maps. In the case of Kerr County, First Street identified over 4,500 homes at risk of flooding near the Guadalupe River. According to FEMA data, however, it was just 2,560. That means that people in areas not included in the official flood risk zones might not just be uninsured but also tragically unprepared. According to Porter, one of the problems is that the maps focus on river channels and coastal flooding mostly without taking into account flash flooding, specifically in areas with smaller channels of water. This is particularly notable within the context of climate change and global warming, which sees warmer air holding more moisture, which translates into more extreme rainstorms. Another issue is conflicts of interest. As NBC News reported, it's common for property owners to conduct their own flood risk analyses and then petition FEMA to change the flood zone designation accordingly. 'One of the problems with FEMA is it appears to be negotiable as opposed to an empirical or science-based understanding of risk,' Porter told NBC News. 'It's based on the ability to create an engineering study and negotiate with FEMA.' If you think most people ask the agency to label their area as high flood risk so they can better prepare, you're probably putting more faith in humanity than we deserve. The truth is that official flood zones can mean expensive flood insurance obligations, lower property values, and stricter construction regulations. What's more, 'Congress controls FEMA's mapping budget and sets the legal framework for how maps are created. For years, updating the flood maps has been an unpopular topic among many publicly elected officials, because new flood designations can trigger stricter building codes, higher insurance costs and development restrictions,' Porter explained on The Conversation. With President Trump threatening to potentially 'remake' FEMA, it remains to be seen what's in store for the agency's future and what that means for American lives.

Some Juneau Residents Evacuate as Melting Glacier Threatens to Flood Town
Some Juneau Residents Evacuate as Melting Glacier Threatens to Flood Town

New York Times

time43 minutes ago

  • New York Times

Some Juneau Residents Evacuate as Melting Glacier Threatens to Flood Town

Residents of Juneau, Alaska, have been urged to evacuate after an overflowing glacial lake sent water surging down the Mendenhall River. Forecasters said river levels could break a record between 8 a.m. and noon local time on Wednesday, threatening homes and roads in parts of the state capital, which has a population of more than 30,000. Such floods have been a recurring problem in Juneau since 2011, but recent years have seen record-setting surges as rising temperatures cause glaciers in the area to melt more rapidly. Alaska has warmed faster than the global average, and the fastest of any state, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Flooding from the glacial lake in Juneau last August inundated several hundred homes with four to six feet of water, although no deaths or injuries were reported. The city put up a temporary levee along the river in response. Here's what to know about these floods. What's a glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF? As glaciers melt, they tend to retreat uphill, leaving an empty bowl at the bottom of the valley where the ice once sat. Meltwater from the glacier starts pooling in this bowl, and over time a lake forms. But the sides of the lake are fragile. They might be formed of loose dirt and rock or ice. If one day an avalanche or a landslide occurs, or a piece of a nearby cliff plunges into the water, the disturbance can cause the sides of the lake to collapse. In a flash, most of the lake's water might cascade down the valley, threatening towns and cities below. Glacial lake outburst floods can be catastrophic because, by the time the water reaches downstream settlements, it has picked up huge amounts of sediment and boulders along the way, turning it into a thick slurry that can knock down buildings. In 2023, a GLOF in northern India killed at least 55 people and destroyed a hydropower dam. All in all, 15 million people around the world live within 50 kilometers, or 31 miles, of a glacial lake and less than a kilometer from the potential path of a GLOF, scientists estimated in a 2023 study. How common are they in Alaska? The glacial lake that is overflowing this week in Alaska sits at the foot of the Suicide Glacier, an ice mass north of Juneau. Decades ago, the Suicide Glacier flowed into a much larger river of ice, the Mendenhall Glacier. But as the Suicide melts and shrinks, a steep gap has opened up between it and the Mendenhall. This gap is now called Suicide Basin. (Experts have proposed renaming Suicide Basin to Kʼóox Ḵaadí Basin, which in the Tlingit language translates to 'Marten's Slide Basin.' A marten is a lithe, weasel-like animal found in the area.) Snowmelt and rain accumulate in the basin, and when the water is high enough, it starts draining through cracks in the Mendenhall Glacier before flooding the Mendenhall River. The first time this happened was in July 2011, and it took downstream communities by surprise. The basin has since filled and drained at least 39 times, according to the National Weather Service. Early Wednesday, as the basin drained once more, the Mendenhall River crossed into major flood stage, the National Weather Service said, indicating water levels of above 14 feet. The river was expected to crest at 16.75 feet on Wednesday. The glaciers in this region are part of the Juneau Ice Field, a sprawling area of interconnected ice that is melting twice as quickly as it did before 2010, scientists reported last year. More of the area's glaciers are detaching from one another, the researchers also found, which can lead to the formation of lakes like Suicide Basin. Accelerated melting is producing more water to fill these lakes and hence more water that eventually floods neighborhoods downstream, said Bob McNabb, a glaciologist at Ulster University who has studied the Juneau Ice Field. 'As you get more and more melting coming down, that will fill up the basin a bit more each time,' Dr. McNabb said. How is climate change affecting GLOFs? The world's high mountains are warming more quickly than Earth as a whole. That is causing thousands of glaciers to shrink and new lakes to form beneath them. Since 1990, the number, area and volume of glacial lakes around the world have all grown by roughly 50 percent, scientists estimated in a 2020 study. But bigger lakes don't directly translate into greater GLOF hazards. Each glacial lake and valley has distinct features that influence how likely it is to burst, and what the consequences would be if it did. So predicting future flood risks is 'very complex,' Dr. McNabb said. In the Mendenhall Valley, for instance, rising temperatures are the reason the Suicide Glacier has withered away and Suicide Basin has formed. But as the planet warms further, the Mendenhall Glacier might melt by so much that the flood threat actually decreases. The reason? There would no longer be enough ice at the side of Suicide Basin to trap large amounts of meltwater. Instead, the water would just empty into the valley gradually. Scientists in Alaska have predicted that this could come to pass within the next decade or two. Until then, the people of Juneau will continue to live with the dangers from the warming landscape just a few miles to their north.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store