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New York Times
18-05-2025
- Climate
- New York Times
Severe Weather Continues to Threaten the Middle of the U.S.
Days after storms tore a path of destruction across the Midwest, severe weather is once again expected in the middle of the United States on Sunday into Monday. The forecast is potentially for 'all severe hazards,' including hail larger than golf balls, strong winds and tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. The risk is spread across a broad slice of the middle of the country, but it is focused over the south and central Great Plains and the northern High Plains on Sunday, and then the central Plains into Missouri on Monday. The storm warnings come as the Midwest and the Northeast continue to recover from a spate of deadly storms that generated several strong tornadoes on Friday. In Missouri and Kentucky alone, tornadoes killed at least 25 people, officials said. A rare dust storm swept across central Illinois and into Chicago. 'We're probably one to two notches below what occurred,' Aaron Gleason, a meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, said of the weather he expected for Sunday and Monday. 'There certainly could be strong tornadoes though, but not over as large of an area.' The severe weather is hitting at a time when the Weather Service is facing staffing shortages, with nearly 600 people having departed through layoffs and retirements after cuts ordered by the Trump administration. A forecasting office in Jackson, Ky., which was directly in the line of Friday night's tornadoes, is one of four that no longer have enough staff to operate around the clock. It would have been without an overnight forecaster on Friday, said Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the union that represents Weather Service employees. But after an 'all hands on deck' scramble, he said, the office stayed open and was fully staffed, issuing 11 tornado warnings. The three other forecasting offices are in Sacramento; Hanford, Calif.; and Goodland, Kan. Four more, Mr. Fahy said, are also days away from losing their overnight staffing; those offices are in Cheyenne, Wyo.; Marquette, Mich.; Pendleton, Ore.; and Fairbanks, Alaska. On Monday, there are two separate areas at an enhanced risk — level 3 out of 5, in the Weather Service's categories — for severe weather: One is centered over far northeast Colorado into western Nebraska, and another over central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. In Kansas, Wichita and Topeka are two of the more heavily populated areas where thunderstorms could develop. The area is also at risk for supercells, which are highly organized, longer-lasting storms that generate large hail and stronger winds than typical thunderstorms. They can also spawn powerful tornadoes. Sunday's severe threat is a classic storm scenario across an area notorious for tornadoes, hail and wind. 'The forecast environment for the southern Plains predicts a volatile setup that has not been seen in five to 10 years,' said Sean Waugh, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Severe Storms Laboratory. 'Potentially marking the return of the classic southern Plains outbreak event.' As of Saturday night, there was less confidence in the forecast for Monday, Mr. Gleason said, but, 'It could be a big day.' A large area of the Plains and the Midwest has some risk for severe thunderstorms, with eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, a portion of north Texas, eastern Missouri and the northwest corner of Arkansas in the bull's-eye of an enhanced threat. 'It's one of those days you have to pay better attention to the weather,' Mr. Gleason said. There is also expected to be some rain in the mix. Showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy rain over parts of the southern Plains and into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, and they are expected to be more focused over the central Plains into Missouri and north Arkansas on Monday.
New York Times
16-05-2025
- Climate
- New York Times
Risk of Severe Weather Looms Over Eastern Half of the U.S.
Large portions of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic are at significant risk of severe weather on Friday, as a multiday storm system moves slowly to the East. A bull's-eye centered over southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois and Indiana and central and western Kentucky highlighted an area at risk for some of the most severe thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of unleashing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, possibly some strong ones. 'I'd be surprised if we didn't see some tornadoes in that corridor,' said Aaron Gleason, a meteorologist with the Storm Prediction Center. Here are the key things to know: The threat of thunderstorms on Friday generally stretches from eastern Texas into the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast and is concentrated over the middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley with varying degrees of risk. 'It's a fairly broad area for severe potential, and it looks like all hazards could be possible,' Mr. Gleason said. The area of highest concerns includes the cities of Bloomington, Ind.; Evansville, Ind.; Louisville, Ky.; and St. Louis. Those areas are at particular risk of supercells, highly organized, longer-lasting storms that produce even stronger winds and larger hail — in the case of Friday, bigger than baseballs — than typical thunderstorms. 'The same storms that produce very large hail are also the ones that we tend to be most concerned about from a tornado perspective,' Mr. Gleason said. 'There are probably going to be a lot of storms and a lot severe reports if things work out as forecast, unfortunately.' The National Weather Service office in St. Louis warned of hail of nearly three inches, damaging winds and a 'low chance of a strong tornado.' The clash between a cool air mass dropping down from the north and warm, moist air coming in from the Gulf will help create the sort of instability in the atmosphere on Friday that can fuel powerful thunderstorms. That moisture flow will also deliver some rain over the Ohio Valley into the mid-Mississippi Valley and the South on Friday. 'Parts of Kentucky particularly and southern Ohio will have the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms and each producing heavy rain,' said Richard Bann, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center. The threat of thunderstorms comes to the Midwest in a week marked by unseasonably warm weather. The heat is expected to continue on Friday with many locations across the region forecast to record afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s. Lower temperatures are predicted to arrive this weekend as cooler drier air sweeps in from the northwest. 'It's an active period and nothing unusual for May,' Mr. Gleason said. 'This is typically when a lot of severe weather tends to occur across the country.'
