Severe Weather Continues to Threaten the Middle of the U.S.

New York Times

18-05-2025

Days after storms tore a path of destruction across the Midwest, severe weather is once again expected in the middle of the United States on Sunday into Monday. The forecast is potentially for 'all severe hazards,' including hail larger than golf balls, strong winds and tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
The risk is spread across a broad slice of the middle of the country, but it is focused over the south and central Great Plains and the northern High Plains on Sunday, and then the central Plains into Missouri on Monday.
The storm warnings come as the Midwest and the Northeast continue to recover from a spate of deadly storms that generated several strong tornadoes on Friday. In Missouri and Kentucky alone, tornadoes killed at least 25 people, officials said. A rare dust storm swept across central Illinois and into Chicago.
'We're probably one to two notches below what occurred,' Aaron Gleason, a meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, said of the weather he expected for Sunday and Monday. 'There certainly could be strong tornadoes though, but not over as large of an area.'
The severe weather is hitting at a time when the Weather Service is facing staffing shortages, with nearly 600 people having departed through layoffs and retirements after cuts ordered by the Trump administration.
A forecasting office in Jackson, Ky., which was directly in the line of Friday night's tornadoes, is one of four that no longer have enough staff to operate around the clock. It would have been without an overnight forecaster on Friday, said Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the union that represents Weather Service employees. But after an 'all hands on deck' scramble, he said, the office stayed open and was fully staffed, issuing 11 tornado warnings.
The three other forecasting offices are in Sacramento; Hanford, Calif.; and Goodland, Kan. Four more, Mr. Fahy said, are also days away from losing their overnight staffing; those offices are in Cheyenne, Wyo.; Marquette, Mich.; Pendleton, Ore.; and Fairbanks, Alaska.
On Monday, there are two separate areas at an enhanced risk — level 3 out of 5, in the Weather Service's categories — for severe weather: One is centered over far northeast Colorado into western Nebraska, and another over central Kansas into northern Oklahoma.
In Kansas, Wichita and Topeka are two of the more heavily populated areas where thunderstorms could develop. The area is also at risk for supercells, which are highly organized, longer-lasting storms that generate large hail and stronger winds than typical thunderstorms. They can also spawn powerful tornadoes.
Sunday's severe threat is a classic storm scenario across an area notorious for tornadoes, hail and wind.
'The forecast environment for the southern Plains predicts a volatile setup that has not been seen in five to 10 years,' said Sean Waugh, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Severe Storms Laboratory. 'Potentially marking the return of the classic southern Plains outbreak event.'
As of Saturday night, there was less confidence in the forecast for Monday, Mr. Gleason said, but, 'It could be a big day.'
A large area of the Plains and the Midwest has some risk for severe thunderstorms, with eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, a portion of north Texas, eastern Missouri and the northwest corner of Arkansas in the bull's-eye of an enhanced threat.
'It's one of those days you have to pay better attention to the weather,' Mr. Gleason said.
There is also expected to be some rain in the mix. Showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy rain over parts of the southern Plains and into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, and they are expected to be more focused over the central Plains into Missouri and north Arkansas on Monday.