Latest news with #stormprediction
CBC
4 days ago
- Climate
- CBC
Hail-focused research projects 'long past due' in Canada, U.S., prof says
A new project that aims to better predict when hail will hit and how big it will be might save people big bucks in damage repairs someday. Project ICECHIP (In-situ Collaborative Experiment for the Collection of Hail In the Plains) involved dozens of researchers who spent six weeks chasing, driving and running into storms across the Great Plains in the U.S. to collect fresh hail and study it by measuring, weighing, slicing and crushing the stones to reveal what's inside. Researchers hope the hailstones will reveal secrets about storms, damage and maybe the air itself. The research was done to help improve radar-based hail detection, hail models and forecasting. The aim is to better predict hailstorms and lessen the costly damage they cause. The project, which was the largest hail-focused study in the U.S. in over four decades, involved two teams of researchers, 15 different research institutions and three international partners — including Canada's Northern Hail Project. Becky Adams-Selin, Project ICECHIP's lead principal investigator, says although hail is a worldwide problem, it hasn't gotten much attention until recent decades because it "doesn't kill people like tornadoes do." "There was a lot of focus on tornadoes first to kind of get that warning system down, which makes sense," she said. "Hail didn't really start hitting people's pocketbooks until maybe the last two decades." 40,000 hail-related claims Hail, combined with urban sprawl and deteriorating roofing materials, has created "a perfect storm," she said, and insurance companies are starting to feel the pinch. "It's become a lot more evident that some of the things we don't know about hail are really causing a lot of problems," Adams-Selin said. Data from Manitoba's public auto insurer suggests how the number of hailstorms has varied in the province over the last five years. Manitoba Public Insurance says it has received over 40,000 hail-related claims since 2021. There were 1,300 hail-related claims in 2021 and nearly 3,700 claims in 2022, but the number skyrocketed in 2023, with nearly 28,000 claims submitted. It received almost 9,300 hail-related claims in 2024. So far this year, MPI has gotten just over 700 claims submitted as of Friday. a temporary hail-damage estimate centre in order to deal with a barrage of claims, on top of claims from a massive storm in Winnipeg in August 2023 that brought golf-ball-sized hail to some areas, MPI said. Hail-focused research in Canada and the U.S. is "long past due," said John Hanesiak, a professor at the University of Manitoba's department of environment and geography who works with the Northern Hail Project, which is conducting similar research in Alberta this summer. "This is sort of one of the first projects that's been dedicated to hail [in the U.S.] in 40 years, and the same thing can be said in Canada," he said. Canada's last major hail-focused research project was the Alberta Hail Project, which ran from 1956 to 1985, Hanesiak said. Predicting when hail will hit and how big it will be is "an evolving science," but cutting open a hailstone and analyzing its shape and density can give researchers a better idea of how it grew, he said. "If we're able to measure at the ground, if we're able to measure the size distributions of the hail and collect hailstones from real storms, we can much better understand how they grow in certain conditions." Weather balloons can also help researchers understand what meteorological conditions produce specific hailstorms and hail sizes, but Hanesiak said weather balloons are limited in Canada. The balloons gather weather data from the upper atmosphere, including temperature, humidity and air pressure. In southern parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there are no readings from weather balloons, he said. Hanesiak said his hope is that the projects will help researchers determine whether there are any differences between American and Canadian hailstorms. Keith Porter, chief engineer at the Ontario-based Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, which partially funds the Northern Hail Project, says hail is rarely deadly but can be extremely costly. A Calgary hailstorm in August was Canada's most destructive weather event of 2024, damaging homes, businesses, cars and the Calgary International Airport, resulting in $3 billion in insured losses, according to Catastrophe Indices and Quantification, which provides data to the insurance industry. The best way to protect property from hail damage is by parking in a garage and installing impact-resistant roofing and siding on houses and other buildings, Porter said. "The research helps us to tell [people] what the benefit of doing that is, why they should do it, [and] what's in it for them to save." Porter said hail damage is everyone's problem.
E&E News
10-06-2025
- Climate
- E&E News
House lawmakers revive bipartisan forecasting bill
A bipartisan group of House lawmakers introduced legislation Friday to help the National Weather Service make critical upgrades to its forecasting and storm prediction capabilities. The 'Weather Act Reauthorization bill,' H.R. 3816, would 'fund ongoing critical research programs while also establishing new programs to advance forecasting, expand commercial data partnerships, strengthen emergency preparedness, and advance tools for farmers, ranchers and resource managers,' according to a release from sponsor Rep. Frank Lucas. The Oklahoma Republican used to chair the Science, Space and Technology Committee. The panel's current ranking member, Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), is the bill's main co-sponsor. Advertisement The legislation would fund the modernization of weather research programs, including for tornado warning and hurricane forecasting technologies. And it would increase NOAA's access to forecasting data by expanding its authority to contract with the private sector.
Yahoo
08-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Chance for severe weather returns Monday
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — After a dry and sunny Sunday, stormy weather returns to our area on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 1 out of 5 and a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday. Want the forecast delivered directly to your inbox? Sign up for the News 2 Forecast Newsletter A cold front will set off a line of thunderstorms on Monday afternoon, and within the strongest thunderstorms, we could see damaging wind gusts over 60 mph. FORECAST: Middle Tennessee & Southern Kentucky Weather The line of thunderstorms will cross our area between 11 a.m. and 6 p.m. on Monday. Tap through the slideshow below for the latest hour-by-hour timing. After the storms exit, we will see a nice stretch of quiet weather on Tuesday and Wednesday! Don't forget to take the power and reliability of the WKRN Weather Authority with you at all times by downloading the News 2 Storm Tracker app. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Kansas City under enhanced severe weather risk Monday, multiple rounds of storms expected
Severe thunderstorms are possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk, level 3 out of 5, for the Kansas City area. While many ingredients favorable for severe thunderstorms will come together on Monday, the setup remains messy across the Enhanced Risk area.
New York Times
18-05-2025
- Climate
- New York Times
Severe Weather Continues to Threaten the Middle of the U.S.
Days after storms tore a path of destruction across the Midwest, severe weather is once again expected in the middle of the United States on Sunday into Monday. The forecast is potentially for 'all severe hazards,' including hail larger than golf balls, strong winds and tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. The risk is spread across a broad slice of the middle of the country, but it is focused over the south and central Great Plains and the northern High Plains on Sunday, and then the central Plains into Missouri on Monday. The storm warnings come as the Midwest and the Northeast continue to recover from a spate of deadly storms that generated several strong tornadoes on Friday. In Missouri and Kentucky alone, tornadoes killed at least 25 people, officials said. A rare dust storm swept across central Illinois and into Chicago. 'We're probably one to two notches below what occurred,' Aaron Gleason, a meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, said of the weather he expected for Sunday and Monday. 'There certainly could be strong tornadoes though, but not over as large of an area.' The severe weather is hitting at a time when the Weather Service is facing staffing shortages, with nearly 600 people having departed through layoffs and retirements after cuts ordered by the Trump administration. A forecasting office in Jackson, Ky., which was directly in the line of Friday night's tornadoes, is one of four that no longer have enough staff to operate around the clock. It would have been without an overnight forecaster on Friday, said Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the union that represents Weather Service employees. But after an 'all hands on deck' scramble, he said, the office stayed open and was fully staffed, issuing 11 tornado warnings. The three other forecasting offices are in Sacramento; Hanford, Calif.; and Goodland, Kan. Four more, Mr. Fahy said, are also days away from losing their overnight staffing; those offices are in Cheyenne, Wyo.; Marquette, Mich.; Pendleton, Ore.; and Fairbanks, Alaska. On Monday, there are two separate areas at an enhanced risk — level 3 out of 5, in the Weather Service's categories — for severe weather: One is centered over far northeast Colorado into western Nebraska, and another over central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. In Kansas, Wichita and Topeka are two of the more heavily populated areas where thunderstorms could develop. The area is also at risk for supercells, which are highly organized, longer-lasting storms that generate large hail and stronger winds than typical thunderstorms. They can also spawn powerful tornadoes. Sunday's severe threat is a classic storm scenario across an area notorious for tornadoes, hail and wind. 'The forecast environment for the southern Plains predicts a volatile setup that has not been seen in five to 10 years,' said Sean Waugh, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Severe Storms Laboratory. 'Potentially marking the return of the classic southern Plains outbreak event.' As of Saturday night, there was less confidence in the forecast for Monday, Mr. Gleason said, but, 'It could be a big day.' A large area of the Plains and the Midwest has some risk for severe thunderstorms, with eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, a portion of north Texas, eastern Missouri and the northwest corner of Arkansas in the bull's-eye of an enhanced threat. 'It's one of those days you have to pay better attention to the weather,' Mr. Gleason said. There is also expected to be some rain in the mix. Showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy rain over parts of the southern Plains and into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, and they are expected to be more focused over the central Plains into Missouri and north Arkansas on Monday.
