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Gold prices rise as Iran-Israel conflict fuels safe-haven demand
Gold prices rose on Monday as escalating Iran-Israel tensions boosted safe-haven demand, with markets closely monitoring developments in the region.
Spot gold gained 0.5per cent at $3,384.59 an ounce, as of 1245 a.m. EDT (1645 GMT). US gold futures was up 0.4per cent at $3,400.70.
"Prices are up partly because of political uncertainty following the US bombing of Iran," said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group.
The United States over the weekend launched multiple missile strikes against Iran targeting its nuclear sites, while President Donald Trump openly mused about overthrowing the Iranian government.
Axios, citing an Israeli official, reported on Monday that Iran had launched six missiles toward US bases in Qatar.
Israel's military bombed Evin prison in northern Tehran, a potent symbol of Iran's governing system, in what Israel called its most intense bombing yet of the Iranian capital.
Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation and a safe haven during times of uncertainty.
"We expect gold and silver prices to remain strong and to rise further as long as the political and economic problems continue and we don't see them ending anytime soon. Our expectation is that the price of gold could hit $3,500/oz within the next couple months," Christian added.
Gold hit its highest-ever mark on April 22 at $3,500.05.
Investors also await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data due later this week.
Last week, the Federal Reserve left the US policy rate in its current 4.25per cent-4.50per cent range with policymakers hinting at possible rate cuts later this year.
Bullion, a non-yielding asset, tends to thrive when interest rates are low.
Spot silver was up 0.7per cent at $36.22 per ounce and platinum rose 1.5per cent to $1,284.08.
Palladium gained 2.5per cent to $1,070.47, reaching its highest level since June 11.
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Hindustan Times
an hour ago
- Hindustan Times
US strikes on Iran add to global travel disruptions and flight cancellations
The US entry into Israel's war with Iran has caused travel disruptions to pile up globally. Israelis disembark a bus after they were flown back to Israel in a special flight, on June 16, 2025, in Tel Aviv.(AFP) Following unprecedented bombings ordered by President Donald Trump on three Iranian nuclear and military sites over the weekend, Iran on Monday launched a missile attack on US forces at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base. Qatar had closed its airspace just hours earlier, after both the U.S. and U.K. also urged their citizens to shelter in place there. The region has been on edge following the weekend strikes from the US — and since Israel began the war with a surprise bombardment on Iran, which has responded with its own missile and drone strikes, earlier this month. As deadly attacks escalated between Israel and Iran over recent weeks, sections of airspace and airports throughout the region have temporarily closed. And airlines cancelled more flights in recent days, with some halting select routes through the middle of the week — particularly in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, just across the Persian Gulf from Iran. Singapore Airlines, for example, canceled some flights to and from Dubai starting Sunday and through Wednesday, citing 'a security assessment of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.' And British Airways has similarly suspended flights to and from Doha through Wednesday. 'Safety is always our highest priority,' British Airlines said in a statement confirming its cancellations to The Associated Press, adding that it 'will keep the situation under review.' Air India on Monday announced it was ceasing 'all operations to the region as well as to and from the East Coast of North America and Europe' immediately until further notice. The airline, which is still reeling from a plane crash that killed at least 270 people earlier this month, added that India-bound flights from North America were being diverted or re-routed away from closed airspaces. Air tracking data from FlightAware showed 705 cancellations worldwide as of Monday afternoon. Dubai International Airport topped the list with 75 cancellations in and out of the airport as of around 5 p.m. ET. And Air India had had the highest amount of cancellations among carriers, totaling 38 as of 5 p.m. ET. Such disruptions have snarled travel, particularly as central hubs in the Middle East often connect flights worldwide — but experts stress that these kind of airspace closures and flight diversions are critical to ensuring safety, especially if future escalation emerges suddenly. 'It is the responsibility of states, countries to ensure that their airspace is safe for passage of aircraft,' Hassan Shahidi, president and CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation. He added that on Monday 'the Qataris did the absolutely right thing to close their airspace because of the threat of conflict.' Beyond Qatari airspace, Flightradar24 reported that UAE airspace was also closed on Monday. After several hours of diversions, flights appeared to be landing and taking off in the country again. Monday marks the latest 'dramatic increase' in this kind of impact, said Ian Petchenik, director of communications at Flightradar24. And while the future is unknown, he added that it's important to remember airspace closures and flight cancellations reflect that 'airlines, air traffic controllers and flight crews are doing their best to keep everybody safe.' Shahidi adds that it's important for travelers to monitor government guidance — such as safety notices from the US State Department. How long the war lasts and what, if any, future escalation comes next could carry more widespread implications. Beyond disrupting global flight networks farther down the road, Shahidi stresses that it's very difficult for people who may need or want to evacuate countries impacted by the war to do so without access to commercial flights. At the same time, he adds, it's critical that state authorities focus on keeping their skies safe — pointing to past tragedies of passenger flights that were shot down by strikes. That includes Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which was shot down by Russian-backed forces while flying over Ukraine in 2014, killing 298 people. 'We are all praying and urging resolution to this conflict — and especially as it relates to protection of civilian air travel," Shahidi said. "We do not want to have an MH17, with innocent lives being lost in a missile strike ... We do not want to repeat that history.'
Indian Express
an hour ago
- Indian Express
Jaishankar likely to be in US for meeting of Quad on July 1
Preparations are underway for a meeting of the Quad Foreign Ministers in the US on July 1 and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is likely to travel to Washington DC, sources have told The Indian Express. But given the fluid situation in the wake of the conflict in West Asia where the US has entered the war after bombing nuclear facilities in Iran, a final confirmation is awaited. Jaishankar will also be able to brief the American leadership on India's position on the Israel-Iran issue, as was articulated by PM Narendra Modi after his conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezekshkian in which he called for 'dialogue and diplomacy'. Sources said if all goes to plan, the meeting of the Quad Foreign Ministers will be hosted by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Although the four Quad Foreign Ministers had met in Washington DC at the first multilateral meeting that Rubio held on January 21 — after the inauguration a day earlier of US President Donald Trump — the grouping hasn't been able to focus on the Indo-Pacific agenda over the last five months. The US administration has been focused on the two ongoing wars — in Ukraine and in West Asia — and Trump has put much of his bandwidth on these issues, apart from the trade wars he started following the imposition of tariffs. So, this will be an opportunity for the Quad partners to refocus on strategic threats in the Indo-Pacific, where China's assertive behaviour is a cause for concern. For India, this will be the first opportunity for the External Affairs Minister to engage with the Quad partners — with whom the country has close strategic partnership — after the India-Pakistan military confrontation over four days in May this year. This will also be Jaishankar's first meeting with Rubio and top officials in the US administration, after Modi spoke to Trump over the phone on June 18, weeks after the US President claimed credit for brokering a 'ceasefire' between India and Pakistan and linked it to a trade deal with India. Modi told Trump that at no point was there any discussion, at any level, on an India-US trade deal, or any proposal for mediation by the US between India and Pakistan. The meeting of Foreign Ministers is also crucial before the Quad leaders' Summit to be held later this year in India, sometime in September-October — for which Trump, Australian PM Anthony Albanese and Japan PM Shigeru Ishiba will be travelling to India. This visit by Jaishankar will also take place just over a week before the July 9 tariff deadline. It is expected that the US and India will have concluded a bilateral trade agreement before the deadline for suspension of reciprocal tariffs expires. In an interview to French daily Le Figaro earlier this month, Jaishankar said, 'The threat of reciprocal tariffs was raised on April 2, but we had already begun bilateral negotiations for a trade agreement. Prime Minister Modi was hosted by Donald Trump in February, and they agreed to expand access to each other's markets. We are hopeful of reaching an agreement before the tariff suspension ends on July 9.' Officials said that while travel plans and work on the agenda for the meeting of the Quad Foreign Ministers is being done, it will all depend on the course of the conflict in West Asia. Shubhajit Roy, Diplomatic Editor at The Indian Express, has been a journalist for more than 25 years now. Roy joined The Indian Express in October 2003 and has been reporting on foreign affairs for more than 17 years now. Based in Delhi, he has also led the National government and political bureau at The Indian Express in Delhi — a team of reporters who cover the national government and politics for the newspaper. He has got the Ramnath Goenka Journalism award for Excellence in Journalism '2016. He got this award for his coverage of the Holey Bakery attack in Dhaka and its aftermath. He also got the IIMCAA Award for the Journalist of the Year, 2022, (Jury's special mention) for his coverage of the fall of Kabul in August 2021 — he was one of the few Indian journalists in Kabul and the only mainstream newspaper to have covered the Taliban's capture of power in mid-August, 2021. ... Read More
Indian Express
2 hours ago
- Indian Express
India set to ramp up oil imports from Russia, Africa, US and Latin America
The escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict and Tehran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz are likely to push Indian refiners to further ramp up oil purchases from non-West Asian suppliers — mainly Russia, West Africa, the US and Latin America — as shipping routes to Indian ports from these suppliers are detached from the critical choke point in the Persian Gulf, according to industry sources and experts. In fact, India's oil sourcing strategy is already reflecting a risk-hedged posture pertaining to West Asian oil flows with Russian oil dominating India's oil import mix. Following US air strikes at Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, Iran's parliament Sunday approved a motion calling for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit choke point in global energy flows. It is now up to Iran's Supreme National Security Council to decide on whether or not to go ahead to try and choke the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait on multiple occasions, but has never actually done it. Even in the current scenario, industry experts also expect the possibility of an actual closure to be really low. Notwithstanding that, a heightened risk of the closure is bound to raise concerns globally, including in India, particularly with regard to oil and gas supply security, and could lead to a jump in energy prices. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical and narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) calls it the 'world's most important oil transit chokepoint', with around one-fifth of global liquid petroleum fuel consumption and global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transiting the strait. According to tanker data analysed by The Indian Express, over 45 per cent of crude oil imported by Indian refiners in May was likely to have been transported via the Strait of Hormuz. The importance of the chokepoint for India's energy supply and security cannot be understated because the country is the world's third-largest consumer of crude oil and depends on imports to meet over 85 per cent of its requirement. Risk-hedged posture in India's oil import strategy Tanker data sourced from commodity market analytics firm Kpler shows that so far in June, India has imported over 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil, accounting for over 41 per cent of the country's oil imports. Crude oil imports from the US have also grown sequentially, while imports from West Asia – primarily Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait – have largely remained stable. A bulk of these import cargoes would have been scheduled before the latest conflagration between Israel and Iran, and therefore, would not have fully factored in the recent escalation in tensions. In April-May, Russian crude accounted for around 39 per cent of India's oil imports, while West Asian oil had a share of around 41 per cent. Executives in India's refining sector said that they are closely monitoring the evolving situation and while the Strait of Hormuz appears open for the time being, they are looking at buying additional volumes from geographies that are delinked from this West Asian shipping route. As the oil cargoes being purchased now would mostly be delivered at Indian ports in July, any shift in buying behaviour is likely to be established from July's oil import data. Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling, at Kpler, said, 'June reinforces a well-established precedent – Russian crude volumes…continue to dominate India's import slate due to attractive pricing, logistics detached from the Gulf, and payment flexibility in non-dollar currencies. Looking ahead, if geopolitical risks worsen or maritime security around Hormuz deteriorates, Indian refiners are expected to ramp up spot purchases from Russia, West Africa, Latin America, and the US. This will likely translate into a decline in July nominations for Middle Eastern cargoes, particularly from Iraq and Saudi Arabia.' India's oil import strategy has evolved significantly over the past two-three years, with Russia displacing the West Asian majors as India's largest source of crude. And Russian oil is logistically detached from the Strait of Hormuz as it reaches India mostly via the Suez Canal and Red Sea route, and in some cases via the Cape of Good Hope and the Pacific Ocean routes. While there is a possibility of Iran-backed Houthi militia intensifying attacks on merchant vessels transiting the Red Sea, experts believe that they are expected to allow a safe passage to tankers hauling Russian crude, as they have been doing over the past year-and-a-half. Price matters According to Ritolia, even American, West African, and Latin American oil flows to India, although costlier, are viable backup options for any disruption in West Asian supply. Notably, even as crude oil shipping continues via the Strait of Hormuz and there is no physical supply disruption, operational risk perception has increased sharply, prompting real-time reassessment by shipping lines and resulting in a surge in war risk premiums for cargoes transiting the strait. All this is already raising the delivered price of West Asian crude for Asian buyers, including India. According to refining sector officials, while elevated freight rates due to high risk premium for tankers passing through the strait would lead to higher landed price of oil and gas for them, it would still be significantly better than runaway oil prices due to any major supply disruption, which would be nearly certain if the Strait of Hormuz is shut for oil tankers. 'Indian refiners are closely monitoring the geopolitical landscape and are poised to make rapid adjustments to secure both supply stability and commercial resilience. The emphasis will remain on logistical diversification, margin preservation, and political neutrality in an increasingly polarized oil trade environment… The June 22 escalation has amplified India's energy security concerns. While supply chains remain intact, the cost of maintaining them is rising. Refiners must transition from hedging to active scenario planning, dynamic rerouting, and selective margin protection,' he said. So far, Iranian oil export infrastructure doesn't appear to have been majorly hit by Israel, which is a relief for the energy markets and countries like India, even though they do not buy oil from Iran. This is because some Chinese refiners buy the bulk of Iranian oil and if Iran's oil exports are majorly impaired, these buyers will be forced to scout for oil from other sources, which could lead to higher oil prices. In the event of any closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil industry analysts expect international oil prices to enter triple-digit territory, possibly reaching $120-130 per barrel, from the current level of $77-78. Apart from supply disruption for India, the surge in international energy prices due to any such blockade would hit India due to its heavy reliance on imported oil. This makes India's economy vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations. It also has a bearing on the country's trade deficit, foreign exchange reserves, the rupee's exchange rate, and inflation rate, among others. Sukalp Sharma is a Senior Assistant Editor with The Indian Express and writes on a host of subjects and sectors, notably energy and aviation. He has over 13 years of experience in journalism with a body of work spanning areas like politics, development, equity markets, corporates, trade, and economic policy. He considers himself an above-average photographer, which goes well with his love for travel. ... Read More
