Winnipeg GDP, disposable income growth to slow in 2025: Conference Board

Winnipeg Free Press

04-07-2025

As trucking companies shutter and manufacturers brace for layoffs, the Conference Board of Canada forecasts slower GDP growth in Winnipeg this year than upcoming years.
The research body predicts Winnipeg's gross domestic product will grow 1.1 per cent in 2025 and 2.4 per cent, on average, in the following four years.
'There's a lot of uncertainty,' Walter Bolduc, a Conference Board economist, said of current times.
Tariffs have flung between the United States and Canada since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January. Additionally, China placed tariffs on certain Canadian agricultural exports — like pork and canola — in retaliation to Canada tacking levies to its electric vehicle imports.
Slower population growth in Winnipeg also contributes to the GDP prediction.
Both manufacturing and transportation/warehousing sectors will likely see less output in 2025 — a 0.9 per cent contraction, a new Conference Board report says.
The forecast might be conservative, said Aaron Dolyniuk, executive director of the Manitoba Trucking Association.
'It is very slow in the trucking industry,' he added. 'I don't know that we've seen the worst of it yet.'
He's noted a handful of small- and medium-sized businesses closing shop. There's more supply than demand in the current landscape, he added.
'Uncertainty is one of biggest challenges,' Dolyniuk said. 'I think a lot of companies and individuals have been tightening up their spending.'
Winnipeg saw a boost in manufacturing jobs during the first five months of 2025, per Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters tracking. The province's sector is diverse, shielding it from massive blows, said CME chief economist Alan Arcand.
However, the extra 1,500 jobs could be temporary — a result of companies ordering bulk from manufacturers ahead of tariff implementation, he said.
Projecting fewer manufacturing jobs in the coming year, as the Conference Board has done, is a 'fair forecast,' Arcand said. 'Given the threat of the ongoing trade dispute … (it) wouldn't be surprising.'
Manufacturing layoffs have happened nationally, though largely concentrated in Ontario and Quebec, Arcand said.
The Conference Board is pegging Winnipeg's average unemployment rate at 6.1 per cent this year. The city's labour force growth could outpace employment, the report reads.
The unemployment rate should lessen over the following four years due to stronger business activity and slower labour force growth, the report adds.
Sectors including construction and accommodation and food services are anticipated to grow. High demand for new homes and large projects like Portage Place's redevelopment were cited as boosters, as were influxes of visitors to Winnipeg for events like wildfire evacuations and tourism draws.
The Conference Board predicts household disposable income growth will weaken by 4.2 percentage points — from 6.5 per cent in 2024 to 2.3 this year.
Homeowners renewing fixed-rate mortgages may see higher rates. Also, there's less demand for wage increases because inflation has cooled from recent years' highs, the report outlines.
Inflation could rise to an average 2.5 per cent this year, up from 1.2 per cent in 2024, the Conference Board calculated. It pointed to retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods and the end of Manitoba's gas tax holiday.
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Gabrielle PichéReporter
Gabrielle Piché reports on business for the Free Press. She interned at the Free Press and worked for its sister outlet, Canstar Community News, before entering the business beat in 2021. Read more about Gabrielle.
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