Latest news with #ConferenceBoard
Fibre2Fashion
11 hours ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
UK Economic Index down in May, outlook remains positive
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 74.5 (2016=100), following a 0.4 per cent drop in April. Over the six months from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.5 per cent—worsening from the 1 per cent decline recorded in the prior six-month period, indicating sustained economic headwinds. 'The UK LEI continued to slide in May, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022. May's decline in the UK LEI was driven primarily by weaker consumer expectations, housing sales expectations, and an increase in unemployment claims,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, slipped by 0.1 per cent in May to 107.4, offsetting a modest rise in April. The CEI grew by just 0.3 per cent over the past six months, marking a sharp slowdown compared to 1 per cent growth in the previous half-year, TCB said in a release. 'Overall, the components breakdown suggests that the current headwinds are concentrated in the consumer sector and the labour market amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Despite recurring monthly declines, the 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI remained above the recession threshold, and there was no warning signal either in May, as the diffusion index remained above 50. Overall, the LEI reading suggests that economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025 but will remain positive. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025, after 1.1 per cent in 2024,' Li added. The UK Leading Economic Index fell 0.3 per cent in May 2025, continuing its decline since 2022, driven by weak consumer outlook, housing expectations, and rising jobless claims. The Coincident Index dipped 0.1 per cent. Despite persistent headwinds, no recession signal was seen. The Conference Board expects UK GDP growth to moderate but stay positive at 1.3 per cent in 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Fibre2Fashion
3 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Australia's LEI up 0.3% in May, outlook mixed: TCB
The Conference Board's (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Australia rose by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 114.1 (2016=100), following a 0.6 per cent gain in April. While this marks the second consecutive monthly increase, the LEI's six-month growth slowed to 0.3 per cent (November 2024–May 2025), down sharply from the 1.3 per cent expansion in the previous period (May–November 2024). 'The LEI for Australia increased again in May. All components, except sales to inventory ratio in non-farm sector and rural goods exports, contributed positively to the Index. Overall, the annual growth rate of the LEI continued to strengthen in May after turning positive in April,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI)—which tracks current economic conditions—edged up by 0.1 per cent in May to 117.7, after a 0.3 per cent rise in April. The CEI posted a 0.6 per cent gain over the latest six-month period, also decelerating from 1.2 per cent in the preceding half-year. 'Following a lackluster 0.2 per cent q/q GDP growth in Q1 2025, The Conference Board expects Australia's real GDP to strengthen somewhat and to grow by 1.4 per cent overall in 2025,' Li added. Australia's LEI rose 0.3 per cent in May 2025, signalling continued growth but at a slower six-month pace of 0.3 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent. Most components contributed positively, except non-farm inventory sales and rural exports. The CEI rose 0.1 per cent, with six-month growth easing to 0.6 per cent. The Conference Board expects 1.4 per cent GDP growth for 2025 after a weak Q1. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Fibre2Fashion
3 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US' garment CPI down in May, spending rises despite tariff uncertainty
The US apparel sector is navigating a turbulent mid-year, with May data showing a -0.4 per cent decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for garments month-over-month (MoM) and a -0.7 per cent drop year-over-year (YoY). Despite the decrease, garment prices remain higher than the 2012–14 average and among the loftiest since the early 2000s, according to Cotton Incorporated. Apparel imports dropped sharply in May, falling -22 per cent by weight after a brief rebound in April (+3.3 per cent). This follows a sustained seven-month surge from September 2024 to March 2025, when volumes were up +15.2 per cent year-over-year. The pullback in May reflects the first clear reaction to tariff hikes that took effect in April. Consumer spending on clothing rose +1.1 per cent in May, up +4.9 per cent year-on-year—more than double the 12-month average of +2.3 per cent—indicating relative resilience despite broader economic concerns. Overall consumer spending, however, declined -0.3 per cent month-over-month, and annual growth slowed to +2.2 per cent, the weakest pace since February 2024, Cotton Incorporated said in its Executive Cotton Update - US Macroeconomic Indicators & the Cotton Supply Chain, July 2025. US apparel CPI fell -0.4 per cent MoM and -0.7 per cent YOY in May, but prices remain historically high. Imports plunged -22 per cent after early tariff hikes, while spending on clothing rose +4.9 per cent YoY. Consumer confidence dipped and overall spending slowed. Tariff frameworks for August 1 propose higher rates, including 40 per cent on transhipped goods via Vietnam. Consumer sentiment showed signs of strain, with the Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence dipping 5.4 points to 93 in June, following a May recovery from April's pandemic-era low. Trade tensions continue to weigh on market sentiment. As of early July, tariff frameworks were released with implementation delayed to August 1. These maintain the 10-percentage point tariff hike introduced in April while proposing steeper duties, including a 40 per cent tariff on transhipped goods via Vietnam. Final agreements remain under negotiation, and clarity is lacking on how transshipment and component transformation rules will be enforced. Adding to the complexity, a major US legislative package passed in early July phases out duty-free de minimis shipments (under $800) by July 2027—a move that could reshape e-commerce trade flows. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June and trimmed its US GDP forecast for 2025 to +1.4 per cent (down from +1.7 per cent in March), signalling a more cautious economic outlook. The US added 139,000 jobs in May, though previous months saw downward revisions. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 per cent, still low by historical standards, while wage growth slowed to +3.9 per cent year-over-year. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)
The Hill
4 days ago
- Business
- The Hill
America's economic waters will calm when politicians stop throwing boulders
It's fascinating to throw stones into a lake, watch ripples interact and spread, and speculate about when the water will become calm again. But when rocks and boulders of policy uncertainty hit the economic waters, predicting the outcome of the resulting ripples and waves requires more than speculation. America's waters are still trembling from past policy boulders, but in some ways the lake has seemed on the verge of becoming calm again following COVID and major Biden and Trump administration initiatives. Now, we must watch how new, spreading waves interact with receding ripples. Let's assess what we can at this point. With the dawn of the decade and COVID, massive policy boulders fell. There were huge transfers from the national-deficit purse to individual and business bank accounts and a shutdown of the economy. The results were more like tidal waves than ripples. The waters were still troubled in 2025 when Donald Trump returned with 'golden-age' promises. In rapid fire, more boulders hit the water: DOGE cuts, government layoffs, deported immigrants and massive ' Liberation Day ' worldwide tariff announcements. To get a handle on all this, there are two kinds of economic indicators to consider: soft and hard. Soft indicators reflect what people think about the economy: Are they optimistic or pessimistic? Favoring long-run investments or sitting on their hands and waiting for fewer ripples? Hard indicators provide the data: Has GDP growth accelerated? Industrial production? Employment or business startups? The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Indicator and University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index are two closely watched soft indicators. Both have multiple components, some focused on the present and others on the future. Both recently took positive turns that can be attributed to growing comfort with a more relaxed and predictable Trump tariff policy. The Michigan index recently rose significantly for the first time in six months following 'steady drops that left the preliminary number at the second-lowest level in the nearly 75-year history of the survey.' Affirming similar signals, consumer confidence rose significantly in May (but declined in June with consumers again expressing concern over tariffs). The National Federation of Independent Businesses produces a member-derived monthly optimism index that, in June, was positive for the second consecutive month. It had languished in weak territory from January 2021 through October 2024. Finally, it seems, small businesses were observing calming waters. Next, consider the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, a daily measure based on the frequency of the word 'uncertainty' observed in a large sample of major daily newspapers. On June 15, the index registered 521, down from a high of 976 recorded on April 5, (the first reading capturing the effects of the April 2 'Liberation Day' announcement and the highest since COVID). Yet ripples were still present. Due to high and rising interest rates, we get a negative outlook from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which fell from 34 to 32, the lowest reading since December 2022. When it comes to hard indicators, the picture has been a similar mix of encouraging and uncertain. First-quarter real GDP growth came in at minus-0.5 percent following the previous quarter's 2.4. percent. The negative number was worsened by the efforts of U.S. importers to bring in goods before higher tariffs took hold (imports subtract from GDP). Reflecting a hangover from the same tariff-fueled spring buying frenzy, May retail sales fell 0.9 percent relative to April's numbers. On the labor front, May payroll employment growth of 139,000 workers was below the 149,000 average for the past 12 months but still decent. Industrial production growth declined 0.5 percent in April but rose 0.1 percent in May. A loss of construction jobs due to high interest rates was the largest sector drag on April's employment numbers. Tariffs seemed to be the main source of uncertainty. More germane as a prosperity indicator, new business formations have been occurring at a sustained high level. Better still, important measures finally suggest that one ripple that has widened for a half-decade — the inflation effects of COVID — is settling and that tariff-driven inflation is for now being observed at a low level. Yes, we seemed to be getting beyond COVID, DOGE and Liberation Day's troubled waters when Trump decided to bomb Iran's nuclear bomb-making activities. The Middle East now rocks with another wave of uncertainty. U.S. allies and adversaries may throw boulders of their own. For now, we can expect volatile petroleum markets, higher energy prices and perhaps complications regarding inflation and interest rates. Will calmer waters and peace emerge quickly, or will more boulders hit the water? We can only speculate and cannot fully account for future boulders. But many are under our control and will stop falling when our elected leaders stop dropping them. Bruce Yandle is a distinguished adjunct fellow with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and dean emeritus of the Clemson University's College of Business and Behavioral Sciences.
Fibre2Fashion
7 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Germany's economy shows signs of rebound as LEI rises 0.8% in May
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany increased by 0.8 per cent in May 2025 to 87.7, more than reversing a decline of 0.3 per cent in April. Over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI for Germany grew by 0.6 per cent, a partial recovery from the 0.8 per cent contraction over the previous six-month period, from May to November 2024. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for Germany was unchanged in May 2025 at 103.6, after ticking down by 0.1 per cent in April. Over the six-month period between November 2024 and May 2025, the CEI for Germany experienced a slight 0.1 per cent increase, reversing the 0.1 per cent decline over the previous six-month period, The Conference Board said in a press release. 'In May, the LEI for Germany registered its strongest monthly increase in 5 years,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. 'Stock prices and consumer confidence, which pulled back in April, rebounded following easing trade tensions from the temporary pause on US tariffs. In addition, new orders for investment goods made a significant positive contribution, most likely supported by the announced fiscal stimulus plan. The LEI annual rate has improved continuously since the beginning of 2024, suggesting lessened headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board currently projects a mild recovery in Germany with real GDP reaching 0.5 per cent in 2025, after contracting slightly in the past two years.' Germany's Leading Economic Index rose by 0.8 per cent in May 2025 to 87.7, its strongest monthly gain in five years, signalling easing economic headwinds. The rebound was driven by improved stock prices, consumer confidence, and investment orders. The Coincident Economic Index remained flat. The Conference Board projects a mild recovery, with Germany's real GDP expected to grow by 0.5 per cent in 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
