UK Economic Index down in May, outlook remains positive
'The UK LEI continued to slide in May, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022. May's decline in the UK LEI was driven primarily by weaker consumer expectations, housing sales expectations, and an increase in unemployment claims,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, slipped by 0.1 per cent in May to 107.4, offsetting a modest rise in April. The CEI grew by just 0.3 per cent over the past six months, marking a sharp slowdown compared to 1 per cent growth in the previous half-year, TCB said in a release.
'Overall, the components breakdown suggests that the current headwinds are concentrated in the consumer sector and the labour market amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Despite recurring monthly declines, the 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI remained above the recession threshold, and there was no warning signal either in May, as the diffusion index remained above 50. Overall, the LEI reading suggests that economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025 but will remain positive. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025, after 1.1 per cent in 2024,' Li added.
The UK Leading Economic Index fell 0.3 per cent in May 2025, continuing its decline since 2022, driven by weak consumer outlook, housing expectations, and rising jobless claims. The Coincident Index dipped 0.1 per cent. Despite persistent headwinds, no recession signal was seen. The Conference Board expects UK GDP growth to moderate but stay positive at 1.3 per cent in 2025.
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Time of India
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Time of India
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