Latest news with #LEI
Fibre2Fashion
7 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US recession signal flashes again as LEI falls for 3rd straight month
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3 per cent in June 2025 to 98.8 (2016=100), after no change in May (revised upward from—0.1 per cent originally reported). As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8 per cent over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the –1.3 per cent contraction over the second half of 2024. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US rose by 0.3 per cent in June 2025 to 115.1 (2016=100), after being unchanged in both May and April. The CEI rose by 0.8 per cent over the first half of this year, down from 1 per cent growth over the previous six months, The Conference Board said in a press release. In June 2025, The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for US fell by 0.3 per cent, marking a 2.8 per cent decline over the first half of the yearâ€'signalling recession risk for the third consecutive month. While stock prices rose, weak consumer confidence, new orders, and rising jobless claims dragged the index down. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index rose by 0.3 per cent. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the coincident index improved in June. 'The US LEI fell further in June. For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at The Conference Board . 'In addition, the LEI's six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month.' 'At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6 per cent this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices,' added Zabinska-La Monica. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US was unchanged at 119.9 (2016=100) in June 2025, after increasing by 0.4 per cent in May. The LAG's six-month growth rate was also positive at 1.4 per cent between December 2024 and June 2025—reversing a -0.8 per cent decline over the previous six months (June–December 2024). A strong rally in stock prices could not counterbalance the negative effects of subdued consumer confidence and weak new orders. The LEI's sluggish growth rate and sub-50 diffusion index over the past six months activated the recession signal for the third month in a row in June. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
22-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Euro area LEI falls in June, signals persistent economic weakness: TCB
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the euro area declined by 0.5 per cent in June 2025 to 99.3 (2016=100), following declines of 0.9 per cent and 0.2 per cent in April and May respectively. Overall, the LEI contracted by 2.6 per cent over the first half of 2025, still a slower rate of decline than the 3.4 per cent experienced over the second half of 2024. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which gauges the current state of the economy, rose by 0.2 per cent in June to 109.9. This follows an unchanged reading in May and brings the CEI's total growth for the first half of 2025 to 0.6 per cent, slightly higher than the 0.4 per cent improvement seen in the previous six-month period, TCB said in a press release. The Conference Board LEI for the euro area fell 0.5 per cent in June 2025, marking a 2.6 per cent decline in H1, though slower than H2 2024. The CEI rose 0.2 per cent, indicating modest growth. Despite easing recession signals, broad weakness persists across LEI components. The Conference Board projects euro area GDP to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2025, unchanged from 2024. 'The euro area LEI continued to decline in June,' said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, at The Conference Board. 'As in recent months, all non-financial components weighed on the Index, especially consumer confidence and volume of order books but also business expectations in both the service and manufacturing sectors. The positive yield spread and improvements in the systemic stress indicator mitigated the depth of overall Index's decline.' While the LEI's six-month growth trajectory no longer signals recession risks, the widespread weakness across its components continues to point to economic headwinds. Following strong growth in Q1, the Conference Board does not expect the momentum to have continued into Q2 and project euro area gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by just 0.9 per cent in 2025, unchanged from 2024. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
U.S. Stock Futures Muted to Start a New Week
Pre-market futures are up to start a fresh trading week, though indexes are currently coming down from where they were earlier in early-morning trading. The Dow is currently +70 points, the S&P 500 is +10, the Nasdaq has gained +25 points thus far and the small-cap Russell 2000 keeps its catch-up trade levels, +13 points at this hour. We remain off highs from the first half of the month, but those also happen to be all-time highs. Q2 Earnings Ahead of the Bell: CLF, DPZ U.S.-based steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs CLF outperformed expectations on both top and bottom lines this morning, with a slimmer-than-expected loss of -$0.50 per share an improvement over the -$0.68 projected. Revenues of $4.93 billion bettered the Zacks consensus by +0.62%. Shares are up +4.5% on the news. During the quarter, a 50% tariff was slapped on foreign steel imports, but the view forward is cloudier on trade policy. \Domino's Pizza DPZ had a mixed performance in its Q2 results this morning, missing by -3% on its bottom line with earnings of $3.81 per share (its second miss in its last three quarters) but improving on revenues above expectations to $1.15 billion, +4.3% year over year. Shares are up +3% in pre-market trading, +11% year to date. U.S. LEI Comes Out After Market Opens The U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report for June hits the tape after the opening bell this morning, with expectations for a further drift downward to -0.2% from May's -0.1%. In last month's report, Average Consumer Expectations for Business Conditions fell nearly as far as the S&P 500 index LEI numbers have been negative over the past six months, with moving goalposts regarding tariff policy have kept business owners on their heels somewhat. In the May report, a recession signal was triggered — referenced somewhat in last week's extraordinary interview with Zacks Chief Economist John Blank in the Zacks Market Edge podcast. What to Expect from the Stock Market This Week Q2 earnings season heats up in a serious way, with more than 20% on the S&P 500 scheduled to report before the end of this trading week. Headliners come Wednesday, after the closing bell, with Google parent Alphabet GOOGL and challenged EV leader Tesla TSLA both reporting quarterly carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) as of this morning, and is expected to see advertising revenues improve. Earnings are expected to have risen +13.2% in the quarter, with overall revenues +11.1%. Tesla has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) rating with a Value-Growth-Momentum grade of 'F' as of this morning; expectations for its Q2 earnings are -23.1% year over year, and -11.9% on the revenue this week, even though we lighten up from last week's heavy dollop of economic reports, Existing & New Home Sales, S&P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI and Durable Goods Orders are all expected to be released. Expectations are mixed for these data points; we look forward to some of this murkiness lifting upon results being revealed. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) : Free Stock Analysis Report Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) : Free Stock Analysis Report Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) : Free Stock Analysis Report Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
The Star
21-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. leading economic index drops in June
WASHINGTON, July 21 (Xinhua) -- The leading economic index (LEI) for the United States declined by 0.3 percent in June, according to data released Monday by The Conference Board. As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8 percent over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the drop of 1.3 percent over the second half of 2024. "The U.S. LEI fell further in June," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. "For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance." The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, but does expect economic growth to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow 1.6 percent this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in the second half as consumer spending slows due to higher prices, the report said.
Fibre2Fashion
21-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
UK Economic Index down in May, outlook remains positive
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 74.5 (2016=100), following a 0.4 per cent drop in April. Over the six months from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.5 per cent—worsening from the 1 per cent decline recorded in the prior six-month period, indicating sustained economic headwinds. 'The UK LEI continued to slide in May, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022. May's decline in the UK LEI was driven primarily by weaker consumer expectations, housing sales expectations, and an increase in unemployment claims,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, slipped by 0.1 per cent in May to 107.4, offsetting a modest rise in April. The CEI grew by just 0.3 per cent over the past six months, marking a sharp slowdown compared to 1 per cent growth in the previous half-year, TCB said in a release. 'Overall, the components breakdown suggests that the current headwinds are concentrated in the consumer sector and the labour market amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Despite recurring monthly declines, the 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI remained above the recession threshold, and there was no warning signal either in May, as the diffusion index remained above 50. Overall, the LEI reading suggests that economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025 but will remain positive. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025, after 1.1 per cent in 2024,' Li added. The UK Leading Economic Index fell 0.3 per cent in May 2025, continuing its decline since 2022, driven by weak consumer outlook, housing expectations, and rising jobless claims. The Coincident Index dipped 0.1 per cent. Despite persistent headwinds, no recession signal was seen. The Conference Board expects UK GDP growth to moderate but stay positive at 1.3 per cent in 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
