U.S. leading economic index drops in June
As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8 percent over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the drop of 1.3 percent over the second half of 2024.
"The U.S. LEI fell further in June," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. "For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance."
The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, but does expect economic growth to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow 1.6 percent this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in the second half as consumer spending slows due to higher prices, the report said.
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