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Fibre2Fashion
30-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
China's LEI & CEI slip again, raising economic concerns: TCB
China's economic outlook showed further signs of moderation as The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.3 per cent in April 2025 to 149.2 (2016=100), following an identical decline in March. China's economic outlook softened as the LEI fell 0.3 per cent in April 2025, marking a 1.3 per cent drop over six months due to weak consumer sentiment, logistics, and export orders. The CEI also declined 0.7 per cent, signalling weaker current activity. However, easing US-China tariffs and new monetary measures may support growth, with 2025 GDP forecast at 4.5â€'5.0 per cent. Over the six months from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI dropped by 1.3 per cent, easing from a steeper 1.7 per cent fall in the previous six-month period. 'For at least 6 months, the month-on-month declines in the LEI have primarily been driven by persistent weakness in three components: consumer expectations, logistics prosperity index and new export orders in manufacturing. The new export orders fell to a reading last seen in 2022, likely because of the steep US tariffs first imposed in early April,' Malala Lin, economic research associate, at The Conference Board said in a release. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, declined by 0.7 per cent to 152.4 in April, partly reversing March's 1.7 per cent gain. CEI growth over the recent six-month period slowed markedly to 0.7 per cent, compared to 4.0 per cent in the preceding six months. 'However, not captured in this latest LEI reading, most recently, the US and China have reached an agreement to de-escalate tariff impositions, which could alleviate pressure on export driven sectors of China's economy. Additionally, 10 coordinated monetary policy measures were launched in early May to mitigate the impacts of trade tensions. While the negative LEI growth rates still signal headwinds ahead, these extensive monetary actions are expected to support growth going forward. Overall, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth at between 4.5 per cent to 5.0 per cent in 2025,' Lin added. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Fibre2Fashion
29-04-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
India's LEI rises slightly in March amid signs of slowing growth: TCB
The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for India increased by 0.1 per cent in March 2025 to 158.7, after decreasing by 0.1 per cent in February, according to The Conference Board (TCB). Overall, the LEI grew by 0.5 per cent over the six-month period from September 2024 to March 2025, half the 1.0 per cent growth over the previous six-month period between March and September 2024. India's Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased by 3.8 per cent in March to 147.7, partially recovering after the steep drop of 6.8 per cent in February. The Index expanded by 2.6 per cent over the past six-month period ending in March 2025, a much faster rate than the 0.9 per cent growth over the previous six months, The Conference Board said in a press release. India's Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose by 0.1 per cent to 158.7 in March 2025, while the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) jumped by 3.8 per cent to 147.7, according to The Conference Board. Despite slight improvements, sluggish LEI growth signals near-term challenges. India's GDP is forecast to slow to 5.9 per cent in 2025, down from 6.6 per cent in 2024. 'The LEI for India ticked up in March. The marginal gain reflects continued improvements in money supply and the interest rate spread, which offset the negative contributions from the other LEI components. Both the six-month and annual growth rates picked up slightly in March, however, they have not recovered all the lost momentum since October of 2024,' said Malala Lin, economic research associate, at The Conference Board . 'These sluggish growth rates for the LEI may indicate economic challenges in the near-term. In line with this, The Conference Board currently forecasts that India's real GDP will moderate after a strong Q1 and slow to 5.9 per cent growth in 2025 from 6.6 per cent in 2024.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Associated Press
21-04-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Fell in March
NEW YORK, April 21, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.7% in March 2025 to 100.5 (2016=100), after a decline of 0.2% (revised up from –0.3%) in February. The LEI also fell by 1.2% in the six-month period ending in March 2025, a smaller rate of decline than its –2.3% contraction over the previous six months (March–September 2024). 'The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'March's decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: 1) consumer expectations dropped further, 2) stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and 3) new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy's potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.' The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.1% in March 2025 to 114.4 (2016=100), after a 0.3% increase in February. The CEI rose by 0.8% over the six-month period between September 2024 and March 2025, up slightly from its 0.7% growth over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Industrial production, which has declined for the first time since November of 2024, was the only negative contributor in March. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US decreased by 0.1% to 119.1 (2016=100) in March 2025, after a 0.3% increase in February. Despite the monthly downtick, the LAG's six-month growth rate remained positive at 0.7% between September 2024 and March 2025—a reversal of its –0.7% decline over the previous six months (March–September 2024). The next release is scheduled for Monday, May 19, 2025, at 10 A.M. ET. About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or 'leads"—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months. The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are: The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the US are: To access data, please visit: About The Conference Board The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE The Conference Board
