Latest news with #AllenLi
Fibre2Fashion
21-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
UK Economic Index down in May, outlook remains positive
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 74.5 (2016=100), following a 0.4 per cent drop in April. Over the six months from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.5 per cent—worsening from the 1 per cent decline recorded in the prior six-month period, indicating sustained economic headwinds. 'The UK LEI continued to slide in May, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022. May's decline in the UK LEI was driven primarily by weaker consumer expectations, housing sales expectations, and an increase in unemployment claims,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, slipped by 0.1 per cent in May to 107.4, offsetting a modest rise in April. The CEI grew by just 0.3 per cent over the past six months, marking a sharp slowdown compared to 1 per cent growth in the previous half-year, TCB said in a release. 'Overall, the components breakdown suggests that the current headwinds are concentrated in the consumer sector and the labour market amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Despite recurring monthly declines, the 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI remained above the recession threshold, and there was no warning signal either in May, as the diffusion index remained above 50. Overall, the LEI reading suggests that economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025 but will remain positive. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025, after 1.1 per cent in 2024,' Li added. The UK Leading Economic Index fell 0.3 per cent in May 2025, continuing its decline since 2022, driven by weak consumer outlook, housing expectations, and rising jobless claims. The Coincident Index dipped 0.1 per cent. Despite persistent headwinds, no recession signal was seen. The Conference Board expects UK GDP growth to moderate but stay positive at 1.3 per cent in 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Fibre2Fashion
18-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Australia's LEI up 0.3% in May, outlook mixed: TCB
The Conference Board's (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Australia rose by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 114.1 (2016=100), following a 0.6 per cent gain in April. While this marks the second consecutive monthly increase, the LEI's six-month growth slowed to 0.3 per cent (November 2024–May 2025), down sharply from the 1.3 per cent expansion in the previous period (May–November 2024). 'The LEI for Australia increased again in May. All components, except sales to inventory ratio in non-farm sector and rural goods exports, contributed positively to the Index. Overall, the annual growth rate of the LEI continued to strengthen in May after turning positive in April,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI)—which tracks current economic conditions—edged up by 0.1 per cent in May to 117.7, after a 0.3 per cent rise in April. The CEI posted a 0.6 per cent gain over the latest six-month period, also decelerating from 1.2 per cent in the preceding half-year. 'Following a lackluster 0.2 per cent q/q GDP growth in Q1 2025, The Conference Board expects Australia's real GDP to strengthen somewhat and to grow by 1.4 per cent overall in 2025,' Li added. Australia's LEI rose 0.3 per cent in May 2025, signalling continued growth but at a slower six-month pace of 0.3 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent. Most components contributed positively, except non-farm inventory sales and rural exports. The CEI rose 0.1 per cent, with six-month growth easing to 0.6 per cent. The Conference Board expects 1.4 per cent GDP growth for 2025 after a weak Q1. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Fibre2Fashion
14-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Germany's economy shows signs of rebound as LEI rises 0.8% in May
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany increased by 0.8 per cent in May 2025 to 87.7, more than reversing a decline of 0.3 per cent in April. Over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI for Germany grew by 0.6 per cent, a partial recovery from the 0.8 per cent contraction over the previous six-month period, from May to November 2024. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for Germany was unchanged in May 2025 at 103.6, after ticking down by 0.1 per cent in April. Over the six-month period between November 2024 and May 2025, the CEI for Germany experienced a slight 0.1 per cent increase, reversing the 0.1 per cent decline over the previous six-month period, The Conference Board said in a press release. 'In May, the LEI for Germany registered its strongest monthly increase in 5 years,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. 'Stock prices and consumer confidence, which pulled back in April, rebounded following easing trade tensions from the temporary pause on US tariffs. In addition, new orders for investment goods made a significant positive contribution, most likely supported by the announced fiscal stimulus plan. The LEI annual rate has improved continuously since the beginning of 2024, suggesting lessened headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board currently projects a mild recovery in Germany with real GDP reaching 0.5 per cent in 2025, after contracting slightly in the past two years.' Germany's Leading Economic Index rose by 0.8 per cent in May 2025 to 87.7, its strongest monthly gain in five years, signalling easing economic headwinds. The rebound was driven by improved stock prices, consumer confidence, and investment orders. The Coincident Economic Index remained flat. The Conference Board projects a mild recovery, with Germany's real GDP expected to grow by 0.5 per cent in 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
18-06-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
UK LEI declines further in April; CEI edges up: The Conference Board
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.4 per cent in April 2025 to 74.9 (2016=100), following a similar drop in March. Over the six-month period from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.2 per cent, a steeper fall than the 1 per cent decline seen in the prior six months, TCB said in a release. 'The UK LEI continued to slide in April, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022. This reflected the economic uncertainty in the month, as well as higher inflation and energy costs, and worries regarding escalating trade tensions. The 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI has cooled but remained above the recession threshold,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.2 per cent to 108 in April after remaining flat in March. The CEI grew by 1.1 per cent over the same six-month period, slightly slower than the 1.2 per cent increase registered between April and October 2024. 'Overall, the LEI reading suggests that, after a stronger than expected first quarter, economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.4 per cent in 2025 after 1.1 per cent in 2024,' Li added. The UK's Leading Economic Index fell 0.4 per cent to 74.9 in April 2025, extending a downward trend since 2022 amid economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade tensions. The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.2 per cent to 108. The Conference Board expects UK GDP growth to ease to 1.4 per cent in 2025, following 1.1 per cent in 2024, after a stronger-than-expected first quarter. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
