Latest news with #LeadingEconomicIndex
Fibre2Fashion
7 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US recession signal flashes again as LEI falls for 3rd straight month
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3 per cent in June 2025 to 98.8 (2016=100), after no change in May (revised upward from—0.1 per cent originally reported). As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8 per cent over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the –1.3 per cent contraction over the second half of 2024. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US rose by 0.3 per cent in June 2025 to 115.1 (2016=100), after being unchanged in both May and April. The CEI rose by 0.8 per cent over the first half of this year, down from 1 per cent growth over the previous six months, The Conference Board said in a press release. In June 2025, The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for US fell by 0.3 per cent, marking a 2.8 per cent decline over the first half of the yearâ€'signalling recession risk for the third consecutive month. While stock prices rose, weak consumer confidence, new orders, and rising jobless claims dragged the index down. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index rose by 0.3 per cent. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the coincident index improved in June. 'The US LEI fell further in June. For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at The Conference Board . 'In addition, the LEI's six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month.' 'At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6 per cent this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices,' added Zabinska-La Monica. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US was unchanged at 119.9 (2016=100) in June 2025, after increasing by 0.4 per cent in May. The LAG's six-month growth rate was also positive at 1.4 per cent between December 2024 and June 2025—reversing a -0.8 per cent decline over the previous six months (June–December 2024). A strong rally in stock prices could not counterbalance the negative effects of subdued consumer confidence and weak new orders. The LEI's sluggish growth rate and sub-50 diffusion index over the past six months activated the recession signal for the third month in a row in June. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
22-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Euro area LEI falls in June, signals persistent economic weakness: TCB
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the euro area declined by 0.5 per cent in June 2025 to 99.3 (2016=100), following declines of 0.9 per cent and 0.2 per cent in April and May respectively. Overall, the LEI contracted by 2.6 per cent over the first half of 2025, still a slower rate of decline than the 3.4 per cent experienced over the second half of 2024. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which gauges the current state of the economy, rose by 0.2 per cent in June to 109.9. This follows an unchanged reading in May and brings the CEI's total growth for the first half of 2025 to 0.6 per cent, slightly higher than the 0.4 per cent improvement seen in the previous six-month period, TCB said in a press release. The Conference Board LEI for the euro area fell 0.5 per cent in June 2025, marking a 2.6 per cent decline in H1, though slower than H2 2024. The CEI rose 0.2 per cent, indicating modest growth. Despite easing recession signals, broad weakness persists across LEI components. The Conference Board projects euro area GDP to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2025, unchanged from 2024. 'The euro area LEI continued to decline in June,' said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, at The Conference Board. 'As in recent months, all non-financial components weighed on the Index, especially consumer confidence and volume of order books but also business expectations in both the service and manufacturing sectors. The positive yield spread and improvements in the systemic stress indicator mitigated the depth of overall Index's decline.' While the LEI's six-month growth trajectory no longer signals recession risks, the widespread weakness across its components continues to point to economic headwinds. Following strong growth in Q1, the Conference Board does not expect the momentum to have continued into Q2 and project euro area gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by just 0.9 per cent in 2025, unchanged from 2024. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
21-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
UK Economic Index down in May, outlook remains positive
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 74.5 (2016=100), following a 0.4 per cent drop in April. Over the six months from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.5 per cent—worsening from the 1 per cent decline recorded in the prior six-month period, indicating sustained economic headwinds. 'The UK LEI continued to slide in May, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022. May's decline in the UK LEI was driven primarily by weaker consumer expectations, housing sales expectations, and an increase in unemployment claims,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, slipped by 0.1 per cent in May to 107.4, offsetting a modest rise in April. The CEI grew by just 0.3 per cent over the past six months, marking a sharp slowdown compared to 1 per cent growth in the previous half-year, TCB said in a release. 'Overall, the components breakdown suggests that the current headwinds are concentrated in the consumer sector and the labour market amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Despite recurring monthly declines, the 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI remained above the recession threshold, and there was no warning signal either in May, as the diffusion index remained above 50. Overall, the LEI reading suggests that economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025 but will remain positive. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025, after 1.1 per cent in 2024,' Li added. The UK Leading Economic Index fell 0.3 per cent in May 2025, continuing its decline since 2022, driven by weak consumer outlook, housing expectations, and rising jobless claims. The Coincident Index dipped 0.1 per cent. Despite persistent headwinds, no recession signal was seen. The Conference Board expects UK GDP growth to moderate but stay positive at 1.3 per cent in 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Fibre2Fashion
18-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Australia's LEI up 0.3% in May, outlook mixed: TCB
The Conference Board's (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Australia rose by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 114.1 (2016=100), following a 0.6 per cent gain in April. While this marks the second consecutive monthly increase, the LEI's six-month growth slowed to 0.3 per cent (November 2024–May 2025), down sharply from the 1.3 per cent expansion in the previous period (May–November 2024). 'The LEI for Australia increased again in May. All components, except sales to inventory ratio in non-farm sector and rural goods exports, contributed positively to the Index. Overall, the annual growth rate of the LEI continued to strengthen in May after turning positive in April,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI)—which tracks current economic conditions—edged up by 0.1 per cent in May to 117.7, after a 0.3 per cent rise in April. The CEI posted a 0.6 per cent gain over the latest six-month period, also decelerating from 1.2 per cent in the preceding half-year. 'Following a lackluster 0.2 per cent q/q GDP growth in Q1 2025, The Conference Board expects Australia's real GDP to strengthen somewhat and to grow by 1.4 per cent overall in 2025,' Li added. Australia's LEI rose 0.3 per cent in May 2025, signalling continued growth but at a slower six-month pace of 0.3 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent. Most components contributed positively, except non-farm inventory sales and rural exports. The CEI rose 0.1 per cent, with six-month growth easing to 0.6 per cent. The Conference Board expects 1.4 per cent GDP growth for 2025 after a weak Q1. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Fibre2Fashion
14-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Germany's economy shows signs of rebound as LEI rises 0.8% in May
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany increased by 0.8 per cent in May 2025 to 87.7, more than reversing a decline of 0.3 per cent in April. Over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI for Germany grew by 0.6 per cent, a partial recovery from the 0.8 per cent contraction over the previous six-month period, from May to November 2024. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for Germany was unchanged in May 2025 at 103.6, after ticking down by 0.1 per cent in April. Over the six-month period between November 2024 and May 2025, the CEI for Germany experienced a slight 0.1 per cent increase, reversing the 0.1 per cent decline over the previous six-month period, The Conference Board said in a press release. 'In May, the LEI for Germany registered its strongest monthly increase in 5 years,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. 'Stock prices and consumer confidence, which pulled back in April, rebounded following easing trade tensions from the temporary pause on US tariffs. In addition, new orders for investment goods made a significant positive contribution, most likely supported by the announced fiscal stimulus plan. The LEI annual rate has improved continuously since the beginning of 2024, suggesting lessened headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board currently projects a mild recovery in Germany with real GDP reaching 0.5 per cent in 2025, after contracting slightly in the past two years.' Germany's Leading Economic Index rose by 0.8 per cent in May 2025 to 87.7, its strongest monthly gain in five years, signalling easing economic headwinds. The rebound was driven by improved stock prices, consumer confidence, and investment orders. The Coincident Economic Index remained flat. The Conference Board projects a mild recovery, with Germany's real GDP expected to grow by 0.5 per cent in 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
