As Trump slaps 30% tariffs on SA, Africa's trade reckoning has arrived

Daily Maverick

5 hours ago

The revival of sweeping US tariffs under President Donald Trump's administration has once again placed developing economies — particularly those in Africa — on the frontlines of a trade war not of their own making.
Trump's latest imposition of tariffs on more than 90 countries is not just a reordering of the global trade hierarchy — it's a jarring signal that developing countries can no longer rely on the goodwill of powerful economies to access international markets without political strings attached.
Although Africa is not a direct target of the tariffs, South Africa now stands as an explicit casualty. As of 7 August, a 30% tariff on all South African goods entering the US was in effect — two days after President Cyril Ramaphosa reportedly called Trump in a last-minute effort to negotiate. The Presidency issued a statement highlighting ongoing trade dialogue, but the timing of the enforcement — just hours later — laid bare the limitations of diplomatic overtures in an era of economic unilateralism.
Make no mistake: this is not just a diplomatic skirmish. It is the opening salvo in a trade war that threatens to destabilise Africa's economic recovery. While Ramaphosa has demonstrated admirable restraint and commitment to dialogue, the Trump administration has chosen economic unilateralism over bilateral engagement.
The tariff trap and global trade reordering
These tariffs are more than mere economic tools — they are a form of political signalling with deep global consequences. Trump's protectionism undercuts decades of progress in trade liberalisation and reveals a worrying disregard for the multilateral trading system.
For South Africa, this represents not just a blow to exports — especially in automotive parts, citrus and wine — but a broader signal of how vulnerable even middle-income African economies remain in global trade diplomacy. Sadly, African states are still rule takers, not rule makers, in international trade talks.
The risk of dumping and trade distortion
The fallout from this tariff will not be contained within US-SA trade flows. African markets, which often lack robust anti-dumping laws, are likely to face a surge in cheap goods — steel, textiles, electronics — originally destined for the US. Dumping will devastate local industries that are already fragile and undercapitalised. It will also widen Africa's trade deficit and increase unemployment, especially in the manufacturing sector.
In some cases, these distortions may trigger retaliatory actions or increased subsidies, raising the spectre of full-blown trade wars among developing economies that can least afford them.
It can be argued that many of the support programmes to soften the US tariffs and targeting exporters or specific sectors (automotive, agriculture) may make them 'specific' subsidies, particularly if the support is contingent on export performance or import substitution — and hence not subject to World Trade Organization rules on prohibited or actionable subsidies.
In the short term, the South African support strategy is probably permissible, especially under the public interest and development exceptions in World Trade Organization rules — and considering the retaliatory nature of the US tariffs (which itself may breach World Trade Organization norms).
But the risk for countervailing measures by countries like the US increases, especially if support remains narrowly targeted to exporters with major price impact in other countries' domestic markets, and if South Africa succeeds in replacing US markets with World Trade Organization members like the EU, Japan, or China.
This is a form of economic suffocation that will not be televised, but it will be felt.
Ramaphosa's tariff gamble and strategic misalignment
Ramaphosa's attempt at quiet diplomacy — both during his May visit to the US and again in the last-minute phone call — reflects South Africa's preference for stability and negotiation.
However, such strategies appear tragically mismatched against Trump's zero-sum, populist economics. In the absence of a coherent and reciprocal response from Washington, South Africa's strategy may need to shift from engagement to economic repositioning.
To date, Pretoria has pursued selective sectoral lobbying, winning small concessions on seasonal fruit exports, but this has done little to protect the broader economy. It is time South Africa recognises that trade diplomacy with Trump's America may no longer be conducted on traditional terms.
Interestingly, Pretoria has condemned the US tariffs as unjust and economically incoherent. Government officials argue the move ignores South Africa's complementary role in US supply chains and the fact that more than 75% of American goods enter South Africa duty free. Ramaphosa's administration had even offered investments and LNG purchases under a proposed bilateral framework agreement, which remains unacknowledged by Washington.
In response, South Africa has launched a comprehensive, multi-pronged support strategy aimed at cushioning the economic blow:
An export support desk has been created to help South African firms explore new international markets.
A competitiveness support programme offers financial aid and equipment to manufacturers hit by tariffs.
A Local Production Support Fund has been deployed to incentivise import substitution and protect local industry.
Competition law exemptions now allow exporters to collaborate on logistics and cost sharing.
Additionally, the Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF) has been activated to absorb job losses, estimated at up to 100,000, especially in the automotive and agricultural sectors. Unemployment was already at a staggering 32.9% before the tariffs. Automotive exports to the US have since collapsed by more than 80%, with ripple effects expected across the citrus, wine and table grape industries.
South Africa's rapid-response strategy is laudable in ambition, but its long-term sustainability remains in question. Globally, such programmes — emergency subsidies, market reorientation initiatives, and support funds — have shown mixed success. Similar export pivot efforts in Latin America and Southeast Asia have often struggled under the weight of slow bureaucratic implementation, limited state capacity to disburse funds efficiently, and over-reliance on uncertain new markets
South Africa's response hinges on three critical variables: the agility of state agencies; the effectiveness of business uptake; and the readiness of alternative markets to absorb redirected exports.
Any slippage in these areas could render the response insufficient and deepen the crisis.
Moreover, such trade support frameworks are financially intensive. Without new revenue streams or international financing, Pretoria's ability to sustain these programmes over the medium term may falter, especially in a fiscally constrained environment.
China: Opportunistic ally or economic colonist?
Meanwhile, China has wasted no time in offering African nations softer loan terms, lower tariffs and increased trade lines. But we must not romanticise this pivot.
As some scholars have warned, China's Belt and Road incentives often come entangled with opaque loan conditions and regulatory conditionalities and debt entanglements. While Beijing may offer a short-term trade parachute, the long-term cost may be strategic dependency. In this geopolitical chessboard, African economies are too often pawns, never players.
Geopolitically, South Africa's BRICS+ alignment may also be shaping Washington's posture. Trump's recent remarks at the BRICS+ summit in Rio warned of consequences for countries backing 'anti-American' initiatives. This, combined with ideological differences over racial justice and Israel-Palestine legal disputes, is adding friction to an already fragile diplomatic relationship.
AfCFTA: No longer a dream, but an urgent necessity
If there's a silver lining to this tariff tsunami, it is the wake-up call it offers to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The World Bank has made it clear: AfCFTA has the potential to lift 30 million people out of poverty and increase intra-African trade by more than 80%.
Yet, implementation remains painfully slow, stalled by bureaucratic inefficiencies, political inertia and infrastructural gaps.
The Trump tariffs must now serve as an economic alarm. Africa can no longer afford to rely on goodwill from the West, nor can it keep putting off the structural integration that AfCFTA promises. It is time to move from intention to execution.
A new doctrine for African trade
The 30% tariff imposed on South Africa is not an isolated event — it is a glimpse into a future where the Global South must fend for itself. Ramaphosa's call to Trump may have bought a sliver of diplomatic capital, but it also exposed the limits of soft power when faced with hard tariffs.
Africa's path forward is clear. It must diversify its trading partners, strengthen intra-African markets, develop robust trade remedy frameworks and reduce its vulnerability to the whims of any single superpower.
If Trump's tariffs represent the thunder, then the lightning must be Africa's resolve to trade with itself and chart its own economic course. Anything less would be economic negligence.
The unpredictability of Trump's tariff doctrine underlines a broader truth: no African country can afford to hinge its economic future on the benevolence or volatility of a single trading partner.
For South Africa, the US remains its second-largest trading partner, with $17.64-billion in bilateral trade in 2023. But such exposure comes with risks, especially when preferential access can be withdrawn overnight. The International Trade Centre and UN Trade and Development have long warned of these vulnerabilities, urging diversification and intra-African trade expansion as long-term solutions.
If this trade turbulence does anything, let it be a clarion call to accelerate the building of resilient, intra-continental supply chains, create robust trade remedy institutions and reduce overexposure to foreign economic storms.
African countries must learn to trade more with each other and less at the mercy of superpowers with shifting agendas. For Africa, the path forward is not looking outwards for salvation — it is looking inwards for strength. DM