Israel Has a Terrible Choice to Make
In response to the Hamas terrorist attack on Oct. 7, 2023, the Israeli government has publicly pursued two primary war aims. First, Israel wanted to secure the return of every hostage Hamas seized. Second, Israel wanted to destroy Hamas.
At the same time, however, Israel also indicated that it did not want to reoccupy Gaza. There are good reasons for this. The international community is opposed to occupation, Israeli society is deeply divided by the idea, and the previous occupation ended poorly — with Hamas coming to power after Israel withdrew from the strip in 2005.
But the brutal military fact is that rejecting occupation not only rendered Israel's vow to destroy Hamas incalculably more difficult, it made the war far more inhumane and deadly.
I want to emphasize that this newsletter primarily offers a military analysis. It is not focused on politics. That's not because the politics of the situation are unimportant, but rather because we often pay too little attention to military realities, and the success or failure of military operations can completely transform the politics of an international crisis.
As a military matter, if you do not seize and control territory, then your war is likely to devolve into an endless exercise in killing terrorists. And if terrorists illegally embed themselves in the civilian population (as Hamas has always done), then killing terrorists also means that civilians will be caught in the crossfire.
Yes, the military can do enormous damage to terrorist forces and temporarily diminish their ability to carry out attacks, but if you do not replace terrorist control with a competing force, then jihadists have the time and space to eventually recover their strength.
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