Paytm Shares Cross Rs 1,000 For First Time In Six Months MSCI Buzz, Q1 Profit Hopes
Shares of One 97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm, surged nearly 3% in intraday trade on Wednesday; Key points for investors
Paytm Share Price Today: Shares of One 97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm, surged nearly 3% in intraday trade on Wednesday, July 16, hitting a high of Rs 1,014. This marked the first time in six months that the stock crossed the Rs 1,000 level.
The rally extended Paytm's winning streak to five consecutive sessions, pushing its total gains for July to 9%. The stock was last seen trading near the Rs 1,000 mark in early January but struggled to hold those levels, undergoing a two-month correction. Momentum picked up again in March, with the stock finishing the next four months in the green.
The recent upward trend has been driven in part by speculation around Paytm's potential inclusion in the MSCI Standard Index. According to a note from Motilal Oswal, there is a strong possibility that Paytm may be upgraded from the MSCI Smallcap Index to the Standard Index during the upcoming August rebalancing.
If the inclusion materializes, Motilal Oswal estimates that the stock could attract inflows worth $212 million. The MSCI announcement is expected on August 8, with the changes becoming effective on August 26.
Paytm has staged a remarkable recovery since hitting an all-time low of Rs 310 in May 2024. The stock has rallied nearly 230%, closing the year at Rs 1,017, making it one of the most prominent turnaround stories in the market this year.
The rally has been supported by improving fundamentals across business segments, helping to restore investor confidence and enhancing long-term growth visibility.
Mutual funds have also demonstrated increased confidence in the company's prospects. As per the latest shareholding data for Q1FY26, domestic mutual funds collectively raised their stake in Paytm to 13.86%, up from 13.11% in the March quarter.
Among the notable domestic investors are Mirae Asset Mutual Fund, Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund, Nippon Mutual Fund, and Bandhan Mutual Fund.
While mutual funds expanded their holdings, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and retail investors trimmed theirs. FII ownership declined slightly to 54.9% from 55.4%, while retail shareholding dropped by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter to 29.3%.
Analysts Anticipate First PAT Profit in Q1 Results
Paytm is scheduled to announce its June quarter results on July 22 (Tuesday), and analysts expect a strong showing—potentially marking the company's first profitable quarter on a profit-after-tax (PAT) basis.
According to JM Financial, Payment Services revenue (excluding UPI incentives) is likely to grow 6% QoQ and 21% YoY, fueled by a 27% YoY increase in GMV. However, a rising share of low-margin UPI transactions may weigh on the take rate.
The company's merchant subscriber base is projected to grow by 7% QoQ (22% YoY) to reach 13.3 million, reflecting ongoing efforts to onboard new merchants and reactivate dormant ones.
Loan disbursements in Q1 are expected to rise by 8% QoQ (23% YoY), led primarily by merchant loans. The mix of Default Loss Guarantee (DLG) is expected to be significantly lower, while personal loan disbursements may remain muted due to stricter norms around unsecured lending.
Despite wage hikes, Paytm is expected to benefit from improved operating leverage. JM Financial forecasts an adjusted EBITDA of Rs 211 million and a PAT of Rs 189 million, supported in part by treasury income that may offset costs related to ESOPs and depreciation/amortization.
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July 16, 2025, 13:01 IST
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