PROP vs. CIVI: Which DJ Basin Player Has the Upper Hand?
Strategic Growth via Acquisitions: PROP has undergone a dramatic transformation since 2023, executing over $800 million in deals that tripled its scale. Acquisitions of Genesis, Nickel Road, and Bayswater have added 54,000 net acres and more than 28 thousand barrels of oil-equivalent per day (BOE/d) in output. With an estimated 10-year inventory runway and over 580 gross locations, Prairie Operating Co.'s strategy positions it for long-term growth in a basin where large-cap competitors are pulling back. Its rural Colorado location also reduces permitting risk and accelerates development timelines.Financial Firepower and Production Growth: Prairie Operating Co.'s financial metrics are quickly scaling after the $602 million acquisition of Bayswater assets. Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is forecasted between $350 million and $370 million, a massive leap from the $140 million previously projected. Net income guidance stands between $69 million and $102 million, while the company maintains a low leverage ratio of 1.0x. With $475 million in liquidity, PROP has the balance sheet strength to fund growth without diluting shareholders. On the production side, Prairie Operating Co. expects to average 29,000 to 31,000 BOE/d in 2025, representing a more than 300% increase year over year.Strategic Hedging Locks in Upside: One of the more underappreciated aspects of Prairie Operating Co.'s story is its proactive hedging strategy. It has locked in about 85% of its remaining 2025 daily production at $68.27/bbl WTI and $4.28/MMBtu Henry Hub. For 2026 through Q1 2028, the hedges average $64.29/bbl and $4.09/MMBtu. This not only secures visibility on future cash flows but also shields the company from downside risk in a volatile energy market. In fact, the hedge book is giving it about $70 million in built-in value at today's prices. Prairie Operating Co.'s program also stands out for its scope and timing, implemented just before a pullback in commodity prices.
Cost Optimization and Cash Flow Strength: Civitas Resources focuses heavily on driving efficiencies. A company-wide cost optimization plan is targeting $100 million in additional annual free cash flow, with 40% of those savings expected to be hit by the second half of 2025. Deals like a new oil gathering agreement are helping cut costs and boost margins. In 2024, CIVI generated $1.3 billion in free cash flow and expects another $1.1 billion in 2025.Focused Permian Expansion: One favorable investment case for Civitas Resources centers on its sharpened focus and early success in the Permian Basin, particularly in the Delaware sub-region. In Q1 2025, Civitas strategically shifted 40% of its capital activity to the Delaware Basin, which has consistently offered the highest returns within its portfolio. This move is already yielding tangible operational gains. According to management, the Delaware team is drilling approximately 10% faster than expected, reflecting meaningful efficiency improvements. Additionally, longer lateral developments enabled by prior ground acquisitions are enhancing capital efficiency further.Robust Balance Sheet and Hedging Strategy: Civitas remains laser-focused on achieving its $4.5 billion net debt target by year-end 2025. The company has nearly $200 million in hedge value secured, with about 50% of crude volumes hedged, insulating free cash flow against further oil price volatility. Management noted they have structured their base dividend and spending to remain cash flow neutral even if WTI dips to $40.
Both stocks have been hammered over the past year. PROP is down 71%, while CIVI has fallen 61%. The declines reflect weak oil prices, EPS misses, and macro concerns. However, Prairie Operating Co.'s sharper decline may also reflect uncertainty around its recent acquisitions.
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PROP trades at just 0.27X forward sales, a significant discount to Civitas Resources' 0.56X.
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According to Zacks' estimates, PROP's earnings are set to surge 382.9% in 2025 and another 13.5% in 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Civitas Resources, in contrast, is expected to see EPS fall by 29.3% in 2025 and another 9.5% in 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
These trends underscore Prairie Operating Co.'s near-term growth trajectory versus CIVI's short-term reset.
Both PROP and CIVI currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting mixed near-term prospects. CIVI offers strong free cash flow, disciplined cost control, and targeted Permian focus. Prairie Operating Co., meanwhile, brings exciting growth potential, low valuation and accelerating volumes. While both stocks have merits, PROP appears slightly better positioned at this moment given its explosive earnings growth outlook and improving cash flow profile.You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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