Worried about the cost of living crisis? Maybe you need another lipstick

The Guardian

28-07-2025

Name: The lipstick effect.
Age: Around since at least the 1930s.
Appearance: Usually red or pink, but now available in a hydrating blush or nude.
Something is different about you. What is it? Have you had your hair done? That'll be my new tinted lip balm – I've succumbed to the lipstick effect.
You've done what now? I bought a luxury lip balm to make myself feel better about everything and I'm not alone: according to the Times, the market research organisation Circana has just reported that despite, or rather because of, the cost of living crisis, British consumers are 'splashing out on affordable luxuries like lipstick and other beauty buys to boost their mood', with 'prestige lip' product sales up 16% to £80.4m in the first half of this year.
And that's the lipstick effect, is it? Yes. The phrase 'lipstick index' was popularised in 2001 by Leonard Lauder of cosmetics giant Estée Lauder, who noticed that lipstick sales across the company rose 11% after 9/11.
Isn't there a similar theory about skirts? It's not quite the same: the hemline index, invented by economist George Taylor in 1926, was the theory that skirts got shorter in boom times and longer during a recession. Data suggests there is some truth to that, but it lags three years behind economic reality, so it doesn't tell you anything useful about the economy.
So what about the lipstick effect – is that real? Well, cosmetics sales increased 25% during the Great Depression, too, and researchers found that during the 2008 crash there was 'a significant increase in average cosmetics expenditures among younger women (age 18-40)'. So, something might be going on.
I don't understand why you would buy lipstick when the economy is circling the drain. Because it makes you feel better, dummy. In 2020, a research team explored whether lipstick purchasers in recessions might be trying to 'increase their attractiveness in order to find a mate' or boost their employment prospects, but concluded that they really just wanted a cheaper treat than clothes.
So this is another iteration of 'little treat culture'. Probably: bougie condiment and fancy snack sales are also booming as people cut back on eating out. It's not surprising that when times are tough, people replace big splurges with small, affordable luxuries to keep their spirits up.
Not surprising but fiscally irresponsible. Such frivolity! Yes, all right, Oliver Cromwell. At least this time around consumers are apparently choosing indulgent lip products with additional skincare benefits – this balm I'm wearing actually contains tripeptides and hyaluronic acid, so it's rejuvenating and pretty! Two for the price of one!
Hmph. So irresponsible. Your lips look awfully pale and thin when you purse them like that – I recommend a swipe of ultra-hydrating kissable berry balm.
Do say: 'I needed a little treat and this balm builds well to create a subtle, flattering, just-bitten lip effect.'
Don't say: 'Maybe she's born with it, maybe it's an irrational response to impending global recession.'