Modi's two-front war
After failing to win the latest, four-day war with Pakistan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is acting like a wounded lion whose ego is deeply hurt. Following the ceasefire with Pakistan on May 10, Modi now seems obstinate on winning what he calls a two-front war by holding the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in abeyance and supporting the so-called declaration of independence from Pakistan by BLA, the Baloch Liberation Army.
Indian strategic thinkers and decision-makers miscalculated the response from Pakistan when they fired as many as 24 missiles into AJK and Punjab. While it was a clear defeat for New Delhi evident from the downing of its war planes worth millions of dollars, the bigger debacle for the Modi government came in the form of President Donald Trump announcing ceasefire between India and Pakistan in a tweet on May 10 - something that can only be analysed and interpreted as US mediation between the two adversaries. The US - an important member of the QUAD bloc, also featuring India, Australia and Japan - avoided rendering any political or strategic support to the Modi government during the war with Pakistan, thus spoiling its years of strategic investment into its relationship with the US. New Delhi, however, did not concede that the ceasefire was a result of President Trump's direct intervention, and rather insisted that the activation of hotline for communication between the military commanders of the two countries worked to prevent further escalation of the armed conflict.
An enraged opposition as well as some BJP stalwarts, who termed Trump's claim to mediate the ceasefire a stab in the back, will now attempt to shape an anti-US narrative in India. New Delhi is expected to activate its pro-India lobby in the US to drumbeat a narrative that the Trump administration officials announced the ceasefire with Pakistan without its approval. Indian circles are also blaming Trump that he has a vested interest because of his ambition to seek a Noble Peace Prize at India's expense. Indian media is also alleging that Trump lied when indicating that he threatened to stop trade with Pakistan and India for the two sides to agree to a ceasefire. If the superiority of the Chinese weapons used by Pakistan has been established over the French, Israeli, Russian and American weapons used by India, the four-day war caused the causality of Indo-US rapport. In the days to come, it will be difficult for the President of America to encounter India's adversarial posture and the growing lack of trust between the two countries.
Both India and Pakistan claim victory in the war, but there are ample proofs that New Delhi miserably failed to dent Islamabad and had to accept a ceasefire because of its military failures. The Indian brags that Pakistan - due to its economic predicament and worldwide condemnation of the Pahalgam attack of April 22 - will not be able to survive Indian military pressure failed to stand in the battlefield. Now, instead of accepting that the Indian military, particularly its air force, failed to perform, the Modi government is threatening Islamabad that it would not tolerate 'nuclear blackmail' next time. The Indian Prime Minister's televised speech of May 12 and another one at the air force base in Adampur on May 13 were an attempt to compensate for the bad performance of Indian military. In both the speeches, he adopted a belligerent posture and declared that India would only discuss "Pakistan occupied Kashmir" in any future talks with its neighbor and would not restore the IWT. He also said that Operation Sindoor was continuing and any future terrorist attack from Pakistan would be met with full force. He also accused Pakistan of violating ceasefire, but it was strongly rebuffed by Islamabad calling it fake news.
After failing to implicate Pakistan in its false-flag operation in Pahalgam, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now trying to focus on two fronts. Given the bad performance of the Indian air force in the four-day war, Modi is now concentrating on patronising the so-called liberation movement in Balochistan and continuing to hold the IWT in abeyance. This two-front policy of the Modi government needs to be analysed from three sides.
First is the Indian attempt to destabilise Pakistan by propagating and assisting BLA's declaration of independence. In its so-called independence declaration, BLA has appealed to India and other countries to recognise an independent state of Balochistan. Henceforth, the nexus between New Delhi and BLA is an open secret. India has long been involved in a proxy war with Pakistan in Balochistan and Afghanistan - something that it now seeks to expand. According to reports, "Mir Yar Baloch, a prominent Baloch activist and writer, shared a series of statements on social media last week proclaiming the formation of a 'Republic of Balochistan' and calling on the Indian government to establish a Baloch embassy in New Delhi. He also appealed to the United Nations to recognise the declaration and provide funding for basic state functions, including currency and passport issuance." Pakistan needs to handle BLA's move with prudence instead of considering it just a law and order issue. What is required is effective political, economic and governance reforms in Balochistan so that the people of the province remain supportive to Pakistan at all the levels.
Second, Pakistan must approach the World Bank and the International Court of Justice in order to expose New Delhi's violation of IWT. According to treaty, neither India nor Pakistan can unilaterally suspend or revoke it, as any change in the status of the treaty must be through consensus. Furthermore, India cannot stop waters of Indus, Chenab and Jhelum - the three rivers exclusively for the use by Pakistan under the IWT - because it has neither the capacity not the skills to achieve the objective. In the meantime, Pakistan needs to take steps to conserve water and improve its water storage capacity.
Third, resumption of a dialogue between India and Pakistan is the only way to prevent further escalation of the conflict. The two sides need to revert to the politics of the 1980s when they acted as responsible neighbours, and revive the Composite Dialogue of the 1990s for a just and honourable settlement of their outstanding issues.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Recorder
33 minutes ago
- Business Recorder
Man attacks Colorado crowd with firebombs, 8 people injured
BOULDER, COLORADO: Eight people were injured on Sunday when a 45-year-old man yelled 'Free Palestine' and threw incendiary devices into a crowd in Boulder, Colorado where a demonstration to remember the Israeli hostages who remain in Gaza was taking place, authorities said. Four women and four men between 52 and 88 years old were transported to hospitals, Boulder police said. Authorities had earlier put the count of the injured at six and said at least one of them was in a critical condition. 'As a result of these preliminary facts, it is clear that this is a targeted act of violence and the FBI is investigating this as an act of terrorism,' the FBI special agent in charge of the Denver Field Office, Mark Michalek, said. Michalek named the suspect as Mohamed Soliman, who was hospitalized shortly after the attack. Reuters could not immediately locate contact information for him or his family. FBI Director Kash Patel also described the incident as a 'targeted terror attack,' and Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser said it appeared to be 'a hate crime given the group that was targeted.' Boulder Police Chief Stephen Redfearn said he did not believe anyone else was involved. 'We're fairly confident we have the lone suspect in custody,' he said. The attack took place on the Pearl Street Mall, a popular pedestrian shopping district in the shadow of the University of Colorado, during an event organized by Run for Their Lives, an organization devoted to drawing attention to the hostages seized in the aftermath of Hamas's 2023 attack on Israel. In a statement, the group said the walks have been held every week since then for the hostages, 'without any violent incidents until today.' Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that the victims were attacked 'simply because they were Jews' and that he trusted U.S. authorities would prosecute 'the cold blood perpetrator to the fullest extent of the law'. 'The antisemitic attacks around the world are a direct result of blood libels against the Jewish state and people, and this must be stopped,' he said. The incident comes amid heightened tensions in the United States over Israel's war in Gaza, which has spurred both an increase in antisemitic hate crime as well as moves by conservative supporters of Israel, led by President Donald Trump, to brand pro-Palestinian protests as antisemitic. His administration has detained protesters of the war without charge and cut off funding to elite U.S. universities that have permitted such demonstrations. In a post to X, a social network, Trump's deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller said Soliman had overstayed his visa and been allowed to work by the previous administration. He said it was further evidence of the need to 'fully reverse' what he described as 'suicidal migration.' Reuters was not able to independently verify the suspect's immigration status. When asked about Soliman, the Department of Homeland Security said more information would be provided as it became available. Victims burned Brooke Coffman, a 19-year-old at the University of Colorado who witnessed the Boulder incident, said she saw four women lying or sitting on the ground with burns on their legs. One of them appeared to have been badly burned on most of her body and had been wrapped in a flag by someone, she said. She described seeing a man whom she presumed to be the attacker standing in the courtyard shirtless, holding a glass bottle of clear liquid and shouting. 'Everybody is yelling, 'get water, get water,'' Coffman said. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a prominent Jewish Democrat, said it was an antisemitic attack. 'This is horrifying, and this cannot continue. We must stand up to antisemitism,' he said on X. The attack follows last month's arrest of a Chicago-born man in the fatal shooting of two Israeli embassy employees in Washington, D.C. Someone opened fire on a group of people leaving an event hosted by the American Jewish Committee, an advocacy group that fights antisemitism and supports Israel. The shooting fueled polarization in the United States over the war in Gaza between supporters of Israel and pro-Palestinian demonstrators. Colorado Governor Jared Polis posted on social media that it was 'unfathomable that the Jewish community is facing another terror attack here in Boulder.'
Express Tribune
40 minutes ago
- Express Tribune
Pakistan hits back at India's remarks, calls for peace and Kashmir solution
Listen to article Pakistan on Monday strongly criticised recent comments by Indian leaders, describing them as reflective of a hostile and dangerous mindset that undermines regional peace. The statement from Pakistan's Foreign Office followed remarks made by India's Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson on May 29, when he claimed that talks on Kashmir would only proceed if Pakistan 'hands over Azad Jammu and Kashmir' to India. Foreign Office spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan said any attempt to blame Pakistan for instability in the region was disconnected from facts. 'The international community is well aware of India's aggressive conduct, including documented evidence of support for terrorism inside Pakistan,' he said. #WATCH | Delhi: MEA Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal says, "... As far as our engagement with Pakistan is concerned, our stand has been clear. Any engagement has to be bilateral. We would like to reiterate that terrorism and talks cannot go together. They need to hand over to India,… — ANI (@ANI) May 29, 2025 'These realities cannot be hidden behind hollow claims or diversionary tactics,' Khan added. Reaffirming Pakistan's position, he stated that the Jammu and Kashmir dispute remains a critical threat to peace in South Asia. Islamabad, he said, will continue to advocate for a fair and durable settlement of the dispute by UN Security Council resolutions and the wishes of the Kashmiri people. He said India's remarks once again proved the futility of relying on nationalism and coercion. 'Threats and aggression will not allow India to achieve its goals,' he noted. While reiterating Pakistan's commitment to constructive dialogue and peaceful engagement, the spokesperson stressed that the country is equally prepared to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity. He concluded that sustainable peace in the region requires 'seriousness, restraint, and addressing the root causes of conflict'.
Express Tribune
40 minutes ago
- Express Tribune
Polish eurosceptic Nawrocki wins presidential vote, electoral commission says
Listen to article Polish nationalist opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki won the second round of the country's presidential election with 50.89% of the votes, the electoral commission said early on Monday, in a blow to the reform agenda of the pro-European government. His rival, Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal Warsaw mayor and an ally of the government led by Donald Tusk, got 49.11%. An exit poll on Sunday had shown Trzaskowski winning with a razor-thin majority. Nawrocki, 42, a eurosceptic historian who ran a national remembrance institute, campaigned on a promise to ensure economic and social policies favour Poles over other nationalities, including refugees from neighbouring Ukraine. The amateur boxer won despite his past dominating the last days of the presidential campaign, from questions over his acquisition of a flat from a pensioner to an admission that he took part in orchestrated brawls. While Poland's parliament holds most power, the president can veto legislation, and the vote was being watched closely in Ukraine as well as Russia, the United States and across the European Union. Nawrocki, supported by the Law and Justice party (PiS), is expected to continue the policies of his predecessor, President Andrzej Duda, also an ally of the largest opposition party, including blocking any attempts by the government to liberalise abortion or reform the judiciary. On social media platform X, Duda thanked Poles for going to vote in large numbers. Turnout was 71.31%, the electoral commission said, a record for the second round of a presidential election. "Thank you! For participating in the presidential elections. For the turnout. For fulfilling your civic duty. For taking responsibility for Poland. Congratulations to the winner! Stay strong Poland!" Duda wrote.
