Hamas could be forced into exile by Arab states

Telegraph

2 days ago

Hamas leaders could be forced to leave Gaza after Middle Eastern states united behind a new plan to end the 22-months war.
Qatar and Turkey, two of the group's main patrons, have thrown their weight behind a French and Saudi peace initiative that sharply increases pressure on Hamas to disarm, surrender power and accept exile.
Senior Gulf officials said the rare display of regional unity could isolate the movement to the point where it has no option but to comply.
'We genuinely believe we have a shot at this,' one diplomat said. 'Hamas is in a corner. They don't have much choice.'
Israel's long and bloody war in Gaza has left Hamas so enfeebled that Arab officials believe there is now a 'golden opportunity' to deliver a final blow.
That opportunity lies behind the New York Declaration, signed this week by Turkey, Arab League members, the EU, Britain and others, which denounces the Oct 7 massacre and demands an end to Hamas rule in Gaza.
Most of Hamas's leadership has been killed, its government barely functions, with Israeli forces controlling 70 per cent of Gaza and clan militias, armed by Israel, contesting much of the rest.
Fragmented fighting units aside, Hamas cannot fight pitched battles or strike inside Israel. It is thought that support among Gaza's population has dropped to around 6 per cent.
Removing Hamas could turn a devastating crisis, with more than 60,000 dead and much of Gaza reduced to rubble, into a chance not just to end the war but to revive hopes of solving the Palestinian question.
Saudi Arabia and France are driving an initiative aimed at the holy grail of diplomacy: a two-state peace deal creating a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
With Washington struggling to make headway, Paris and Riyadh co-hosted a conference at the United Nations in New York this week that forges a grand bargain between Europe and the Arab world.
Under a plan led by Jean-Noel Barrot, the French foreign minister, Arab states agreed to isolate Hamas in return for European recognition of Palestinian statehood before – rather than after – a final deal with Israel. France led the way last week and helped deliver British support on Tuesday. Spain, Ireland and Norway recognised Palestine last year.
Mr Barrot has predicted that all Europe will follow, even Germany – a claim denied in Berlin.
However lofty the plan's ambitions, a unified Arab move against Hamas could work. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, has resisted outside pressure so far, but with his own generals questioning the war's purpose, diplomats believe the chance of a breakthrough is real.
If Hamas relinquishes power and its surviving leaders go into exile, one of the two main obstacles to peace – the other being the release of the remaining hostages – would be removed.
Qatar and Turkey are central to this strategy. Qatar has hosted Hamas's political leadership and channelled more than £1.3bn to its administration in Gaza with US and Israeli approval.
Those payments stopped after Oct 7 but Qatar retains leverage: it could threaten to expel Hamas leaders from their comfortable villas in the northern suburbs of Doha.
Turkey, where many Hamas leaders have second homes, could also deny them refuge.
Officials said both countries were conveying such threats to the group with increasing urgency. Earlier this month, Qatar ordered Hamas leaders to hand in their personal weapons in a bid to increase pressure.
Iran, which has both funded and armed Hamas in the past, remains an option, but many Hamas figures, as Sunnis, are reluctant to tie themselves too closely to a Shia power. The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran last year also demonstrates that targets in Iran are not beyond Israel's reach.
Losing such boltholes would trap Hamas inside Gaza, making exile a more attractive choice and giving its leaders a chance to regroup.
There is precedent. The Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) twice went into exile, leaving Jordan after the Black September clashes of 1970 and Lebanon after Israel's 1982 invasion, before being evacuated under US guarantees to Tunis.
A similar deal could not see senior Hamas officials and their families relocated to Algeria.
Israel knows, however, that Tunisian exile did not consign the PLO to irrelevance. The First Intifada, an anti-Israel uprising that swept the Palestinian Territories between 1987 and 1993, revitalised Yasser Arafat's movement and paved the way for its return under the Oslo Accords.
While Hamas's leaders may leave, most of its estimated 40,000 fighters – many newly recruited and poorly trained – would most likely stay behind. They are expected to hand their weapons to an interim administration that would be formed in Gaza under the umbrella of the Palestinian Authority, which is based in the West Bank, recognises Israel and has condemned Hamas.
The Trump factor
Such a deal to end the war is plausible, analysts say, but not guaranteed. Hamas could yet defy Arab demands and Israel may remain intransigent unless Donald Trump throws his weight behind an initiative he has so far ignored.
Few expect the Franco-Saudi vision of a permanent peace deal to be realised soon. But its backers insist the chance to break decades of deadlock must not be missed.
'You can't make a difference if you don't make a start,' said a second Gulf official. 'It's one step at a time, but you will never reach your goal unless you take that first step.'