MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: Could Reform's victory be the spark for an unstoppable new alliance?
While almost every European country has undergone something like a revolution, with new parties and movements, over the past 20 years, English voters have remained largely loyal to their two big, old parties.
Things have been notably different in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but the most populous part of the kingdom has generally kept hold of Tory or Labour loyalties stretching back for a century, especially in general elections.
Thursday's local election voting suggests that this is now coming to an end.
Both Labour's Sir Keir Starmer and Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch have much to worry about.
A general election fought with voters in this mood could leave them both in the dust.
Nigel Farage 's Reform UK has achieved far more than his previous movements, Ukip and the Brexit Party, could ever do.
So, are we on the brink of the sort of convulsions which have recently gripped France, Germany and Italy? It's hard to say.
Is Labour becoming an urban rump of privileged graduates, cut off from its base? Increasingly. Will the Tories be swept away? Not necessarily.
The first-past-the-post voting system (which has often served this country well) puts pressure on rivals to form alliances before elections, rather than after them.
Is Labour becoming an urban rump of privileged graduates, cut off from its base? Increasingly. Will the Tories be swept away? Not necessarily. Pictured: Nigel Farage poses for a picture with winnning candidate Sarah Pochin as Reform beats Labour by six votes to take Runcorn in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election
Mr Farage has shown in the past that he is ready to do deals with the Tories.
He did this in 2019 when he stood down Brexit Party candidates in Conservative-held seats, helping to give Boris Johnson the most convincing Tory majority since the Thatcher era.
The balance of power on the Right has shifted greatly since then, but can we see in this episode the faint shadow of a new and devastating political alliance? Let us watch carefully.
Send Letby case back to court
If we are serious about the punishment of crime, we have to be sure we are punishing the right person.
Long prison terms meet a reasonable public demand to see the criminal pay. They deter crime.
But what if an innocent person goes to jail? Imagine the horror of being locked up for years for a crime you did not commit.
A society in which such miscarriages were ignored would not be safe or just.
The recent case of Andrew Malkinson, wrongly imprisoned for a rape he absolutely did not commit, is a distressing example.
Now there are growing concerns about the case of the former nurse Lucy Letby, 35, convicted of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven more.
Multiple whole-life orders imposed on her mean she will die in prison. But did she have a fair trial?
The Mail on Sunday today publishes a summary of the many doubts about this case, the weakness (and absence) of evidence, the wrong conclusions drawn from statistics.
Some doubt that any crimes were committed at all.
Voices speaking out against the safety of the convictions now include the distinguished barrister Adam King and the retired Supreme Court Judge Lord Sumption.
This controversy has undoubtedly been distressing for the parents of those babies. This newspaper has the greatest sympathy with them.
But if an injustice has been done, then it must be righted. We do not say that Ms Letby is innocent.
What we do say is that there is now so much doubt, the Criminal Cases Review Commission should urgently refer the matter to the Court of Appeal.
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The Guardian
28 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Jack Straw urges Labour not to panic about threat of Nigel Farage
Keir Starmer and his ministers must not 'panic' about the threat of Nigel Farage, the former home secretary Jack Straw has said, adding that the prime minister had impressed on the world stage and should show more of that side of himself at home. In an interview with the Guardian, he praised Starmer's intention to recognise a Palestinian state after an ultimatum to Israel – but defended the home secretary, Yvette Cooper, saying he would also have proscribed the direct action group Palestine Action. The British political veteran said he believed Starmer and his cabinet were 'head and shoulders' above opposition politicians and would reap the rewards of a gradual improvement in the economy and public services, which would not come immediately. And he said the poll lead of Reform UK should not be taken as a foregone conclusion. 'We have been here before in terms of an insurgent party leading in the polls. So I think it is the famous phrase – don't panic,' he said. The former cabinet minister said Labour faced not only a terrible economic inheritance, but fundamental damage to the fabric of democracy by the previous Conservative governments, primarily Boris Johnson. 'Johnson polluted British politics and although he's left the stage, that pollution carries on, and has been very profound,' he said. 'People look at the first Blair period with kind of rose-tinted spectacles. It didn't always feel that it was easy at the time, but the inheritance was much easier.' Straw said there had at least been an appreciation in 1997 that his predecessors had been competent people. 'These people [in the last Tory government] were not competent. They couldn't do the job. In the space of four years, I think there were five home secretaries,' he said. Straw, who was foreign secretary during the invasion of Iraq, which he later admitted had been a mistake, said he had spent time in the run-up to last year's general election with David Lammy and dismissed the idea Labour that had not been adequately prepared to enter government. 'The issues that they're dealing with have become much more intense,' he said. 'I was talking to someone who worked for years in the Treasury, he was saying how these ministers are head and shoulders above what he described as the Fourth XI of the previous government.' Straw represented his Blackburn constituency for 33 years, and has often talked about how he had been proud that a Labour government had helped to heal racial and social divisions in Britain, which many in Westminster now feel have fractured with tensions exploited by Farage and others. His seat is now held by Adnan Hussain, a pro-Gaza independent. Straw, who until recently still chaired a youth centre in the town and still chairs a chain of academies including Muslim faith schools in Blackburn, said it was hardly surprising given the strength of feeling about Gaza. He said he knew Hussain and thought he was 'throughly decent' and added: 'Politics there has always been complicated.' But he said it was clear that politics was fracturing in a way that would start to produce unpredictable results – particularly under first past the post, which he favoured abolishing. 'The party needs to think about that,' he said of electoral reform. 'And it would get through, I think people understand that in a multi-party situation, first past the post is potentially unfair. It can produce really quirky results. Farage could come through on that.' Could he envisage Farage as PM? 'There is a chance. I think it's a small chance, smaller than he thinks. The Tory party appears to me to just be collapsing,' he said. Although he admitted he did not expect such a plummet in popularity for Starmer and Labour, he urged the party to remain calm. 'In 2000 of course we lost the mayoral election to Ken Livingstone; that was regarded as a great humiliation for Labour. 'So, not being Pollyanna-ish about this, but my instinct is that things will gradually improve.' He said he hoped a sceptical UK public would begin to make the connection between Starmer's successful diplomacy, especially with Donald Trump, and the kind of statesman he could be at home. 'The way Starmer has navigated the challenge from America has been extraordinary,' he said. 'This government has made missteps, which all governments do, and not least about things like [welfare]. 'But at some stage I think that people will start to make the connection between the stalwart international statesman and Starmer the domestic prime minister, and realise that we're talking about the same person and the character.' In one of his first acts as home secretary Straw was the architect of the Human Rights Act 1998, incorporating the European convention on human rights (ECHR) into UK domestic law. His ruthless approach to crime and law and order was often contrasted with his commitment to the act – which survived threats of abolition under the Conservatives. But Straw has become increasingly sceptical of the sweeping reach of the Strasbourg court – and said the justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, should consider legislating to stop such an interventionist approach on asylum, which rightwing parties have denounced. 'I'm not remotely in the position of people on the right who say just abolish the Human Rights Act and withdraw from the ECHR,' he said. 'But we need to look at two things. One, if you can persuade the court in Strasbourg that they have to be less interventionist, and that if they're not, they will write themselves out of the script. 'The second thing is considering ways in which you progressively decouple the Human Rights Act from Strasbourg. The Human Rights Act says British courts should 'take account' of the decisions of the ECHR. But that's basically been interpreted as 'to follow'. And that was never, never our intention.' He said the court should be 'concentrating on the original purposes, which was to stop really serious breaches of rights, not everyday asylum issues.' As home secretary, it was also Straw's Terrorism Act that introduced the proscription of terror groups – used against al-Qaida and others. At the time, addressing concerns that it would affect civil disobedience by organisations such as Greenpeace, Straw said there was 'no evidence whatever' they would be affected. But he said now he was fully behind the decision to proscribe Palestine Action, because of the attack on military planes at RAF Brize Norton. 'This was a very, very serious breach of the security of the base. And if I'd have been in Yvette's position, which I have been, I would have done exactly what she's done,' he said. 'You can't proscribe on a whim. And you need clear evidence. Much of that evidence is based on intelligence, but also just the fact that they are attacking our military assets and military bases. I think we certainly would have taken the action that she has taken.' But Straw said he had been delighted to see Starmer take the decision to recognise a Palestinian state – saying it was 'barefaced cheek' of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to say it was playing into the hands of Hamas. 'I applaud the decision which Keir Starmer has taken. I'm really glad that he's done that. I think that the conditions imposed were quite skilful,' he said. Straw said he did not know yet whether the Israeli offensive in Gaza would ultimately be deemed a genocide. 'Whatever label you put on it, it's absolutely amoral and unacceptable and just terrible.
The Herald Scotland
an hour ago
- The Herald Scotland
Ukraine needs long-term security guarantees, Taoiseach says
The call was convened by Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. I welcomed the opportunity to join other European leaders today to discuss developments on ending the war in Ukraine. We had a very useful engagement with President Zelenskyy as he prepares to meet with President Trump tomorrow in Washington. — Micheál Martin (@MichealMartinTD) August 17, 2025 On Monday, Volodymyr Zelensky is meeting Donald Trump with several EU leaders, including Sir Keir, also travelling to Washington DC in a show of solidarity with the Ukrainian president. Mr Martin, who will not be in Washington, said he had assured Mr Zelensky on Sunday that Ireland will 'continue to steadfastly support Ukraine'. EU leaders have agreed that sanctions and wider economic measures 'will be reinforced' if Russia continues its military action. The Taoiseach also said that he believes Ukraine needs 'long-term security guarantees'. Donald Trump, right, shakes the hand of Russia's President Vladimir Putin during a joint press conference in Alaska following their talks over Ukraine (Jae C Hong/AP) Speaking after Sunday's online conference, Mr Martin said: 'I welcomed the opportunity to join other European leaders today to discuss developments on ending the war in Ukraine. 'We had a very useful engagement with President Zelensky as he prepares to meet with President Trump tomorrow in Washington. 'I welcome the initiative by President Trump to seek the ending of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Ireland, together with our European partners, continues to contribute to these efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace for Ukraine.' The meeting of European leaders follows the US president's summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Mr Martin said it is 'essential that Ukraine is a full participant' in any discussions regarding its future. He said: 'I therefore welcome that President Zelensky will meet with President Trump in Washington tomorrow, together with other European leaders. Mr Martin said he stressed that international law and principles of independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity need to be respected for security in the region. 'It will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory. International borders must not be changed by force. 'I fully agree that Ukraine needs strong, credible, long-term security guarantees. This will mean sustained support from Europe, the United States and other partners. 'Ireland stands ready to play our part. Earlier this year we committed to providing non-lethal military support to Ukraine and we will look to do more. 'At today's meeting, I also reiterated Ireland's readiness to contribute to any peacekeeping force that is in line with the UN Charter.' French President Emmanuel Macron attending the video conference with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky (Philippe Magoni/AP) The Taoiseach said Ireland will also continue to support Ukraine's EU membership ambitions, adding that Russia 'cannot have a veto' on the matter. 'Our joint efforts for peace should be combined with firm and co-ordinated pressure on Russia to agree to a ceasefire and engage seriously with negotiations on a just and lasting peace. 'We agreed today that sanctions and wider economic measures will be reinforced if Russia does not stop the killing. 'The human dimension and accountability must also be at the centre of a just and lasting peace for Ukraine. 'Russia must urgently return Ukrainian children who they have abducted as well as prisoners of war and civilians being held unlawfully.'
Daily Mirror
an hour ago
- Daily Mirror
Vladimir Putin agrees to major Ukraine security guarantees during Donald Trump talks
Russian President reportedly backs US-EU deal offering Ukraine 'game-changing' security guarantees as Zelensky, Trump & EU leaders prep for crunch peace talks. Vladimir Putin has reportedly signed off on a dramatic peace deal which would see the US and Europe give Ukraine sweeping new security guarantees. Donald Trump's right-hand man Steve Witkoff confirmed the shock move, just minutes after the ex-President boasted of 'big progress on Russia'. In a stunning twist, Russia is even said to have made concessions on the five regions it illegally claimed – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea. Diplomatic insiders say Putin could accept a territorial swap to keep Donetsk and Luhansk in return for halting advances in the south. It comes after Putin warns of nuclear war after unleashing another night of hell on Ukraine. Witkoff said: 'We agreed to robust security guarantees that I would describe as game-changing. The US could offer Article 5-style protection – one of the main reasons Ukraine wants NATO membership. We covered almost all the other issues necessary for a peace deal.' The breakthrough comes on the eve of crunch talks in Washington between Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump, with Sir Keir Starmer and a string of European heavyweights flying in to show support. Starmer will join Zelensky at the White House, with No10 insisting Britain's backing for Ukraine will remain 'for as long as it takes'. Also lining up alongside the Ukrainian leader are EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, French president Emmanuel Macron, Germany's Friedrich Merz and NATO boss Mark Rutte, the Sun reports. Sources say Zelensky begged Europe's top brass to come with him as 'moral support and solidarity' ahead of the showdown with Trump. It will be Zelensky's first return to the Oval Office since his fiery bust-up with Trump and JD Vance earlier this year, when he was humiliatingly kicked out of the White House. The move piles pressure on Putin, who has been scrambling to claw back influence after his own peace summit with Trump in Alaska. But despite the frantic diplomacy, both Russia and Ukraine were still trading drone strikes today, underlining just how fragile the path to peace remains. Putin's deal reportedly goes beyond Ukraine's borders, with draft provisions suggesting Moscow would commit not to launch attacks against other European nations. In exchange, Kyiv would halt its NATO membership bid, formally recognise Crimea as Russian territory, and agree to a land swap involving Donetsk and Luhansk. Western diplomats told Reuters that the package also includes phased sanctions relief if Russia holds to the ceasefire.
