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The Herald Scotland
09-05-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Confidence in UK hits new low while Starmer goes in wrong direction
In the aftermath, arguments have raged both within and outwith Labour over the Government's current course. MPs in formerly Conservative-held seats and across the Red Wall have been arguing for a doubling down on anti-immigration policies and rhetoric. Others have blamed Rachel Reeves' decisions to cut the Winter Fuel Allowance and Personal Independence Payments, arguing for the Government to shift to the left. Read more The backdrop for this debate is the success of Reform UK last week. Nigel Farage's party won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, two mayoralties, 677 councillors, and took control of ten councils. The BBC's projected vote share, which extrapolates from local election results to the full country, suggests Reform would win 30% of the vote in a general election, to Labour's 20%. Labour MPs in more conservative and pro-Brexit constituencies have been spooked by Reform's success, and are focused on how they triangulate against Farage's party. Downing Street appears to agree with those MPs who want Labour to focus on Reform. In the immediate aftermath of the results the Government announced new anti-immigration measures and have stuck by their welfare cuts, signalling no intention to change course and doubling down on their existing bets. There's a problem with this focus on Reform, though. The geography of the local elections last week has heavily influenced the narrative about the results. They took place in some of the most conservative and pro-Brexit parts of England, so a right-wing party coming first isn't a massive surprise. If elections had been held in part of England where the Liberal Democrats did well last year, or in Scotland and Wales, we would be having a very different conversation. In national opinion polls, Labour have lost to the Greens and Liberal Democrats more than double the number of voters they've lost to Reform, whose rise is fuelled more by former Conservative voters than anyone else. In Scotland, they've lost more voters to the SNP, Greens, and Liberal Democrats than to Reform, and in Wales they've lost just 5% of their voters to Reform, but a quarter to Plaid Cymru and and eighth to the Liberal Democrats and Greens. Nigel Farage of Reform UK (Image: free) Labour's problem isn't that they are not enough like Reform. They are bleeding votes to parties all over the political spectrum, more so to the left than to the right. Doubling down on their current direction won't win those voters back and risks alienating even more of them. More than half of Labour's 2024 voters have a favourable view of the Liberal Democrats and Greens, and in Scotland and Wales a significant minority of Labour voters have positive views of the nationalist parties. Not only have they already lost more voters on their left than their right, there's also far more scope for them to lose even more voters on their left flank. Labour's problem isn't that they aren't tough enough on immigration. They won't hold on to power by aping Reform UK and Nigel Farage. Their problem is that, despite only having been in office for ten months, they nevertheless govern a country that most people think is going in the wrong direction. In March, Ipsos found the lowest level of economic confidence in the UK that they have ever recorded, having started tracking in the 1970s. Britons are more negative about the state of the economy than they were in the 1980 recession, in the wake of Black Wednesday in 1992, during the Great Recession in 2008, and even at the height of the pandemic. 59% of us think Britain is going in the wrong direction; just 19% of us are happy with the way things are going. As YouGov's Dylan Difford has put it, the mission of the Labour government should be 'deshittification', both because it's the right one from a policy perspective and because it's the agenda most likely to glue Labour's voter coalition back together. By the time of the next general election, and from the point of view of Scottish and Welsh Labour preferably by the devolved elections next year, Labour need to be able to point to ways in which life has gotten better. Read more Immigration crackdowns and salami-slicing the welfare state are not the path to making life better for ordinary Britons, never mind keeping Labour in power or the Union intact. Voters look at Labour's headline policy decisions since the election and see a government taking money out of ordinary people's pockets rather than those of the wealthiest. Despite the UK being a spectacularly wealthy country, most of that wealth sits in very few hands, and we simply do not tax it properly. The British tax system is a dysfunctional mess that is incapable of mobilising the nation's resources to address the problems we face and needs thoroughly overhauled. But Labour's promises not to increase taxes, which they will ultimately be forced to do and which we knew needed to happen before last year's election, ties their hands behind their backs in this regard. It also leaves a chasm on Labour's left that smaller parties are happily exploiting. Doubling down on their current strategy won't win their voters back because those voters are going left, not right. Only a change of course can win back the people who put Labour in power last July. Mark McGeoghegan is a Glasgow University researcher of nationalism and contentious politics and an Associate Member of the Centre on Constitutional Change. He can be found on BlueSky @
Daily Mail
04-05-2025
- Politics
- Daily Mail
MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: Could Reform's victory be the spark for an unstoppable new alliance?
The British people are not fickle about their politics. While almost every European country has undergone something like a revolution, with new parties and movements, over the past 20 years, English voters have remained largely loyal to their two big, old parties. Things have been notably different in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but the most populous part of the kingdom has generally kept hold of Tory or Labour loyalties stretching back for a century, especially in general elections. Thursday's local election voting suggests that this is now coming to an end. Both Labour's Sir Keir Starmer and Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch have much to worry about. A general election fought with voters in this mood could leave them both in the dust. Nigel Farage 's Reform UK has achieved far more than his previous movements, Ukip and the Brexit Party, could ever do. So, are we on the brink of the sort of convulsions which have recently gripped France, Germany and Italy? It's hard to say. Is Labour becoming an urban rump of privileged graduates, cut off from its base? Increasingly. Will the Tories be swept away? Not necessarily. The first-past-the-post voting system (which has often served this country well) puts pressure on rivals to form alliances before elections, rather than after them. Is Labour becoming an urban rump of privileged graduates, cut off from its base? Increasingly. Will the Tories be swept away? Not necessarily. Pictured: Nigel Farage poses for a picture with winnning candidate Sarah Pochin as Reform beats Labour by six votes to take Runcorn in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election Mr Farage has shown in the past that he is ready to do deals with the Tories. He did this in 2019 when he stood down Brexit Party candidates in Conservative-held seats, helping to give Boris Johnson the most convincing Tory majority since the Thatcher era. The balance of power on the Right has shifted greatly since then, but can we see in this episode the faint shadow of a new and devastating political alliance? Let us watch carefully. Send Letby case back to court If we are serious about the punishment of crime, we have to be sure we are punishing the right person. Long prison terms meet a reasonable public demand to see the criminal pay. They deter crime. But what if an innocent person goes to jail? Imagine the horror of being locked up for years for a crime you did not commit. A society in which such miscarriages were ignored would not be safe or just. The recent case of Andrew Malkinson, wrongly imprisoned for a rape he absolutely did not commit, is a distressing example. Now there are growing concerns about the case of the former nurse Lucy Letby, 35, convicted of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven more. Multiple whole-life orders imposed on her mean she will die in prison. But did she have a fair trial? The Mail on Sunday today publishes a summary of the many doubts about this case, the weakness (and absence) of evidence, the wrong conclusions drawn from statistics. Some doubt that any crimes were committed at all. Voices speaking out against the safety of the convictions now include the distinguished barrister Adam King and the retired Supreme Court Judge Lord Sumption. This controversy has undoubtedly been distressing for the parents of those babies. This newspaper has the greatest sympathy with them. But if an injustice has been done, then it must be righted. We do not say that Ms Letby is innocent. What we do say is that there is now so much doubt, the Criminal Cases Review Commission should urgently refer the matter to the Court of Appeal.
Time of India
24-04-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Poilievre's home turf under siege; Liberals threaten upset in Carleton
Live Events Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre finds himself in an unexpected battle for his political survival as the Liberal Party mounts a serious challenge in his long-held riding of Carleton, according to multiple sources within both the Conservative and Liberal the Liberals gaining momentum nationally, the potential loss of Poilievre's seat would not only be a significant blow to the Conservative Party but also cast serious doubt on his future as the leader of one of Canada 's major political situation has become so precarious that Conservative Party headquarters has reportedly diverted significant resources, including experienced campaigners typically deployed to other tight races, to shore up support in strategic shift, confirmed by four sources, two from the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party and two from the federal level, underscores the gravity of the sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that the party's Ottawa war room has also been mobilized to defend Conservative-held ridings, suggesting a broader vulnerability in the polling paints a concerning picture for Poilievre. While he secured comfortable victories in Carleton in 2019 and 2021, recent surveys indicate a dramatic shift in voter from both the Ontario PC Party and the federal Liberals, who have access to these polls, report that Poilievre is now locked in a tight race with Liberal candidate Bruce Liberal insider even claimed a statistical dead heat, with Poilievre leading by a mere one percentage point within the poll's margin of Ontario PC Party's internal polling suggests a wider Liberal surge in the Ottawa area, with the party holding a commanding 53% lead compared to the Conservatives' 31%.While this poll did not specifically target Carleton, the trend is alarming for the Conservative Senate leader Marjory LeBreton, a veteran of Canadian politics, warned of dire consequences should Poilievre lose his riding and the election."All hell will break loose. The party will fracture," she stated, highlighting the potential for internal the mounting evidence, Conservative Party spokesman Simon Jefferies downplayed the concerns, expressing confidence in Poilievre's pollster Nik Nanos echoed LeBreton's sentiment, stating that Poilievre's leadership would be untenable in the event of a Liberals' resurgence in Carleton appears to be part of a broader trend, with national polls showing them leading the shift in the political landscape has forced Poilievre to play defense in the final days of the campaign, including a rally in Saskatoon, a city traditionally considered a Conservative stronghold.
CBC
26-03-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Canada election: Carney speaks in Ontario's auto sector heartland amid spectre of Trump's trade war
The Latest Liberal Leader Mark Carney is outlining parts of his plan to support workers harmed by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. We're expecting to hear the NDP's fiscal plan this morning. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will be in Quebec later today. It will be the first time during the campaign that Poilievre holds an event in a Conservative-held riding. Do you have a question about the federal election? Send an email to ask@
Telegraph
20-03-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
How Labour councils are increasing tax more than Tory ones
Labour town halls are increasing council tax more than that Conservative-held ones, according to analysis. Councils controlled by Labour will increase total bills by an average of more than 5 per cent for next year, while the Tories will put them up by 4.76 per cent. It comes as the Government confirmed that the average household will see its council tax bill go up by £109, to £2,280 for Band D properties. The Tories claimed that Labour had 'left town halls left to foot the blame when record bills hit the doormat'. The analysis comes as Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative Party leader, fired the starting gun on the party's local elections' campaign, with voters going to the ballot box on May 1. She promised 'lower taxes and better services'. She added: 'We are the only credible choice: Lib Dems will wreck your public services, Reform has no experience running anything, Greens will run councils into the ground and Labour will spend, tax and waste your money, just like they always do.' But Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, said that her new pledge was 'comical', citing figures showing that across 19 Tory-controlled councils bills had risen by 23.5 per cent over the past five years. 'The Tories' track record in local government is one of higher taxes and crumbling services. After decades of mismanagement, Conservative councils across the country are buckling under the pressure.' Residents in Liberal Democrat-run authorities face the steepest overall council tax bills, at £2,344 for a Band D property, inclusive of all precepts from fire, police and potential mayoral or parish precepts. This is followed by the Tories at £2,299. But Labour local authorities have increased bills compared to last year's receipts by the greatest amount, at 5.01 per cent, compared to the Lib Dems at 4.97 per cent and the Tories at 4.76 per cent, according to analysis by The Telegraph. The largest rises in the councils' own levies came from Labour councils in Bradford, where it is set to rise by 10 per cent, and increases of 9 per cent in Labour-run Newnham and Lib Dem-run Windsor and Maidenhead. Mrs Badenoch said on Thursday morning that the party was aiming to do a 'bit better' than a local election wipe-out, warning that she expected the contest to be 'extremely difficult'. The council seats up for grabs at the local elections in May were last contested in 2021, when Boris Johnson achieved sweeping success. Only Labour and Liberal Democrat-run councils which are imposing council tax rises above the mainstream 5 per cent referendum threshold this year. Town halls cannot put up the levy by more than a specific amount – currently 5 per cent – without voters agreeing in a local referendum or having agreed a specific carve out by the Government. A Labour spokesman said: 'The numbers are clear, on average Conservative councils charge households £300 more than Labour councils. The Tories decimated our local services. 'Labour is picking local government back up off its knees with a funding settlement that sees a 4.3 per cent real terms increase in funding this year, compared to last.' A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesman said: 'We are under no illusion about the scale of financial issues facing councils we inherited and our work is underway to fix the foundations and bring long-term stability to the sector. 'And while councils are ultimately responsible for setting their own council tax levels, we have been clear that they should put taxpayers first and carefully consider the impact of their decisions. 'That's why we are maintaining a referendum threshold on council tax rises, so taxpayers can have the final say and be protected from excessive increases.'
