Khamenei in the crosshairs

Politico

5 hours ago

With help from Daniel Lippman
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President DONALD TRUMP may have vetoed a reported Israeli proposal over the weekend to assassinate Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI, but Israel and its boosters are still pushing for the U.S. to back regime change in Tehran.
Israeli strikes against Iran are increasingly targeting political institutions along with high-ranking Iranian military officials. Israel targeted the offices of Iran's state broadcaster today; Israel also claimed it killed four top Iranian intelligence officials in a Sunday airstrike.
Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said today that killing Khamenei 'would end the conflict' and didn't rule out targeting the cleric who sits atop Iran's Islamist government. That followed comments from Defense Minister ISRAEL KATZ describing the strike against Iran's state broadcaster as part of Israel's efforts to punish the 'Iranian dictator.'
If Israel were to oust the regime in Tehran, what would replace it? Some pro-Israel critics of the regime have looked to former Crown Prince REZA PAHLAVI as a potential vehicle for political transformation in Iran if Khamenei and clerical leaders are ousted. Pahlavi's backers point to poll numbers that show he enjoys some of the highest name recognition with the Iranian public.
Pahlavi has long advocated for Iran to have a secular democracy, while not ruling out the possibility that some version of the monarchy might be restored. His office said in a statement that 'the Iranian people will decide on the nature of their democracy.' The statement went on to blame the current Iranian leadership for the ongoing fighting.
Only once in modern history has an autocratic regime given way to a modernizing potential monarch — Spain following the death of dictator FRANCISCO FRANCO. That succession also only occurred because Franco named King JUAN CARLOS I as his successor and Juan Carlos was expected to continue the regime's policies.
Pahlavi has built ties with the Israeli government, and he has hesitated to condemn Israel's strikes against Iran. But despite his name recognition, it's far from clear whether he'd command the loyalty of enough Iranians to lead a political transformation in the country. Many analysts have long predicted that Iranian military leaders are in the best position to succeed the clerics — but Israel has been killing many of those uniformed leaders.
Per the Quincy Institute's TRITA PARSI, regime change might even backfire for those who wish to prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear weapon. Khamenei, Parsi argues, is seen by some as a hurdle to Iran crossing the nuclear threshold because of a fatwa, or religious edict, he is said to have issued in the past. (This is a point which is hotly debated in Iran watcher circles, we should note.) Iranian elites could deem that fatwa is null and void if Khamenei dies, rushing for the bomb, Parsi warns.
For now, the White House isn't publicly embracing any effort to dislodge the Iranian government. A White House official told Reuters over the weekend that unless Iran attacks Americans as part of its response to Israel, assassinations are off the table. Trump is still keeping the door open for diplomacy. At the G7 today, Trump confirmed Iran has been reaching out to the U.S. via intermediaries and didn't rule out a negotiated end to the fighting.
'Iran is not winning this war, and they should talk, and they should talk immediately, before it's too late,' Trump said.
The Inbox
MEANWHILE AT THE G7: While Iran and Israel trade missile volleys, Trump is at the G7 for the first major confab of his second presidency. And European leaders are keen to prove themselves as the next Trump whisperer waiting in the wings.
As our colleagues Stefan Boscia and Hannah Roberts report, French President EMMANUEL MACRON, British Prime Minister KEIR STARMER and Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI all fancy the label and their interactions with Trump will be highly scrutinized as they try to court the president. The leaders see cultivating further warm ties with Trump as key to securing trade concessions and pushing for continued U.S. engagement with Europe.
The summit, which was expected to focus on Ukraine and the trade tensions between the U.S. and many of its allies, is also now discussing the tensions in the Middle East. G7 leaders are debating a proposal to call for hostilities between Israel and Iran.
RUSSIA PLAYS PEACEMAKER? Russia is reupping its effort to position itself as a potential peacemaker in the fighting between Iran and Israel.
Earlier this month, Russia offered to house Iranian uranium as a way to secure a nuclear deal between Trump and Tehran. 'This proposal remains on the table, it remains relevant,' Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said today. 'But, of course, with the outbreak of hostilities, the situation has become seriously complicated.'
Moscow's insistence shows that great powers are antsy about the tensions between Iran and Israel. The proposal could also prove propitious to Russia as it tries to boost goodwill with Washington, potentially allowing Moscow to get a lighter touch from Washington when it returns its attention to ending Russia's three-year invasion of Ukraine.
ZELENSKYY'S CANADIAN CAMPAIGN: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is en route to Alberta to meet with G7 leaders and Trump and push for more support in the wake of the collapse of U.S.-led peace talks.
The visit from Zelenskyy, who joins the summit at the invitation of Canadian Prime Minister MARK CARNEY, is expected to include the first meeting with Trump since the now-infamous Oval Office incident in February. And it comes as MAGA allies have signaled Trump is frustrated with Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN for derailing talks.
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Keystrokes
IN THE ARMY NOW: A new Army effort to merge innovation in the military and tech sector that's seen several high-profile executives commissioned into the service originated with one of those leaders: Palantir Chief Technology Officer SHYAM SANKAR.
'Shyam, in his overwhelming patriotism, came to us, and said, 'I want to join the Army. I want to wear the cloth of the nation. Just doing what I can do to help from Palantir isn't enough,'' Col. DAVE BUTLER, a spokesperson for Army Chief Gen. RANDY GEORGE, told our colleagues at POLITICO Pro's California Decoded. 'Then he said, 'I've recruited three other guys to come with me.''
The move is a sign of deepening ties between Silicon Valley and the Pentagon.
The service on Friday announced the formation of Detachment 201 with the goal of helping the U.S. military produce tech solutions quickly and at scale.
The Complex
U.S. BULKS UP IN MIDDLE EAST: The U.S. is poised to have two aircraft carriers in the water off the Middle East amid the Israel-Iran conflict. The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier rerouted from the South China Sea today, our colleague Paul McLeary reports.
The beefed-up presence comes amid concerns of a wider war that could put U.S. military personnel in the region at risk. The Nimitz will join the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group, which has sailed in the Arabian Sea since the spring amid stepped up operations against the Houthis in Yemen.
Air Force refueling aircraft also deployed to Europe from bases in the U.S. this weekend in a preventative measure to support any operations in the Middle East.
On the Hill
IRAN WAR POWERS PUSH: Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) has filed a war powers resolution aimed at forcing a Senate vote on the use of military force against Iran. The resolution would forbid the U.S. from acting militarily against Tehran without congressional authorization, though it wouldn't prohibit Trump from acting to defend the U.S. from Iran.
Kaine, who has long pushed to rein in broad presidential war powers, said he's concerned about the possibility that the U.S. could be drawn into hostilities between Iran and Israel.
'I'm not a pacifist. I believe in strong defense. And I'm also somebody who I've never voted against an Israel aid package in the whole time I've been here,' Kaine told NatSec Daily. 'I'm not an isolationist, but I also believe in learning the lessons of history. I think the U.S. engagement in the war in Iraq was a grievous mistake. And the U.S. decision to stay in Afghanistan after the death of [OSAMA BIN LADEN] also ended up being very counterproductive. So let's learn the lessons from recent history and not repeat.'
The war powers resolution is privileged, meaning Kaine can force a vote on the Senate floor and get senators on the record, though it won't advance without GOP support. Kaine told NatSec Daily that he doesn't believe this is a 'predictable' issue for senators.
'The most serious thing we do is have discussions about war and peace. But those strong feelings don't line up neatly with partisan politics,' Kaine said.
Broadsides
NUCLEAR WORRIES: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute is decrying the risks of nuclear war in its yearbook released today, warning the era of disarmament is now over.
'The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,' said HANS KRISTENSEN, an analyst with SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction program. All nuclear-armed countries, SIPRI says, are modernizing their nuclear weapons, a departure from recent policy consensus among nuclear powers.
And the think tank is singling out China's rapid nuclear buildup as a major driver of nuclear anxiety. While the report acknowledges that the U.S. and Russia account for the lion's share of nuclear weapons around the world, the think tank highlighted that 'China's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country's' and 'depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many' intercontinental ballistic missiles as both the United States and Russia.
Those claims prompted sharp pushback from Beijing. Foreign Ministry spokesperson GUO JIAKUN said at today's press briefing that China's nuclear program is solely defensive and insisted that China was not part of any arms race.
Transitions
— Britain named BLAISE METREWELI the new head of intelligence agency MI6. Metreweli, a career MI6 officer, was most recently director general of technology and innovation at the agency. She will be the first female chief of MI6.
— JOHN BARSA is joining Continental Strategy as a partner. He previously was acting USAID administrator during Trump's first term.
— GABE CAMARILLO has joined KBR as senior vice president of its Defense and Technology Solutions business. He is a former Army undersecretary.
— Lockheed Martin named JALEN DRUMMOND as vice president of corporate affairs and international communications. Drummond was a White House spokesperson during Trump's first term and most recently oversaw both the public affairs and corporate communications divisions at GoFundMe.
— The America First Policy Institute announced that JULIE KIRCHNER, TONY PHAM and EMILIO GONZÁLEZ will join its ranks. Kirchner was Executive Director at the Federation for American Immigration Reform. Pham was acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, principal legal adviser for the Department of Homeland Security and assistant Secretary for border security and immigration policy at the Department of Homeland Security. And González, a retired U.S. Army Colonel and former director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, served as director for western hemisphere affairs on the National Security Council.
What to Read
— Laura Kayali, POLITICO: Israel slams France's decision to hide Paris Air Show booths
— Andrew Ryvkin, The Atlantic: Putin Isn't Actually Enjoying This
— Elian Peltier, The New York Times: As U.S. Aid Dries Up, West Africa Fights Expanding Jihadist Threat
— Elizabeth N. Saunders, Foreign Affairs: Imperial President at Home, Emperor Abroad
Tomorrow Today
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: 15th annual South China Sea Conference.
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Discussion on a new report, 'The Russian Wartime Economy: From Sugar High to Hangover.'
— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12 p.m.: The Future of Israeli-Palestinian Peace
— Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: "Drone, defense, and diplomacy: Negotiations and the battlefield in Ukraine.'
Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Rachel Myers, who should not be considered as potential replacements for Khamenei.