logo
Hang Seng Index Futures Rally Cools, But Bulls Still In Charge

Hang Seng Index Futures Rally Cools, But Bulls Still In Charge

BusinessToday16-05-2025

RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) is maintaining a positive trading bias on the Hang Seng Index Futures (HSIF) despite a pullback, urging traders to stay on long positions.
The index slipped 134 points to close at 23,383 pts on Thursday, after reaching an intraday high of 23,651 pts. The evening session saw further losses, with the index falling another 148 points to last trade at 23,235 pts.
RHB Research reported that the bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow indicates profit-taking is emerging, signalling waning buying pressure following a strong rally. However, the index remains above its 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA), suggesting the broader trend is still intact.
'The pause in upside momentum may lead to a consolidation phase,' RHB Research noted. 'But as long as the HSIF stays above the 22,000-pt support, bulls will retain the technical advantage.'
Traders are advised to maintain long positions from the 21,416-pt level (April 14 close), with a stop-loss at 22,000 pts. Immediate resistance levels are set at 24,500 pts and 26,000 pts, while support sits at 22,000 pts, followed by 21,000 pts. Related

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

CPO prices to remain under short-term pressure
CPO prices to remain under short-term pressure

The Star

time6 hours ago

  • The Star

CPO prices to remain under short-term pressure

PETALING JAYA: Analysts expect crude palm oil (CPO) prices to remain under pressure in the mid to short-term given the rising inventory and higher output trends. The latest Malaysian Palm Oil Board's palm oil statistics for May revealed that palm oil stocks surged to 1.99 million tonnes, up 6.6% month-on-month and 13.5% year-on-year. Production for the month under review also hit an eight-month high at 1.77 million tonnes. Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research) in a report said the palm oil stock level will likely remain near the two million tonne mark this month. 'This is as seasonally higher crop yields and subdued festive-driven demand are expected to be offset by potentially stronger demand from India, following its recent decision to reduce the import duty on CPO to 10% from 20%,' the research house added. HLIB Research, which is 'neutral' on the sector given the absence of clear demand catalyst, said, 'We maintain our 2025 to 2026 CPO price assumptions of RM4,000 per tonne and RM3,800 per tonne, respectively, with the view that continued output recovery particularly from Indonesia will continue to cap palm oil prices over the near-to-medium term.' For exposure, the research house's top picks are SD Guthrie Bhd with a target price of RM5.17, Johor Plantations Group Bhd at RM1.35 and IOI Corp Bhd at RM4.24. Meanwhile, RHB Research is still 'overweight' on the sector with planters' earnings likely to continue to grow this year, on higher CPO and palm kernel prices. The research house firm said it made no changes to its recommendations after the reporting season for the first quarter of this year (1Q25) as the earnings results were mostly within expectations. RHB Research noted 11 planters under its coverage turning earnings in line with forecasts, while three underperformed. Its top picks within the sector include Johor Plantations, Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd , Bumitama Agri Ltd, PP London Sumatra Indonesia and SD Guthrie Bhd. In Malaysia, RHB Research expects palm oil output should continue ramping up towards the peak season, while demand should also improve, as 'CPO prices are currently within historical discounts versus its competitors'. MIDF Research said in a note to clients: 'We anticipate that the CPO prices will remain stabilised, hovering within the range of RM3,900 to RM4,200 per tonne. 'This is typically in line with seasonal production trends, as the pollination period ends in March and palm oil output is expected to recover – potentially leading to an increase in closing stock levels.' The research house said that the sector's top-line will continue to rise for the first half of this year, in line with higher average CPO price assumptions. 'However, margins are likely to remain under pressure due to the persistent elevated cost of production, caused by the higher locked in fertiliser costs from the second half of last year, coupled with elevated external fresh fruit bunch (FFB) purchase expenses amid low mills utilisation rates,' it added. MIDF Research has maintained a 'neutral' call on the sector at this juncture. While the CPO prices are expected to remain under pressure, it expects production is likely to perform, leading to a ceteris paribus performance for 2025. 'Therefore, we foresee only a handful of players likely to benefit from elevated CPO prices. 'Hence, we recommend avoiding smaller players with significant exposure to external FFB purchases as these factors could risk their CPO production, particularly during the current biological tree rest environment,' the research house noted. Instead, MIDF Research suggested focusing on larger players such as IOI with a target price of RM4.42, SD Guthrie at RM5.43 and Genting Plantations Bhd at RM6.10, whose CPO procurement, which are over 50% from their own estates offers more stability in realising CPO prices. TA Research in a report said its CPO price forecast is unchanged at RM3,800 per tonne for this year. It reiterated a 'hold' call on SD Guthrie, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd and Kim Loong Resources Bhd , while maintaining a 'buy' call on United Malacca Bhd and TSH Resources Bhd .

FCPO Stalls Below RM4,000
FCPO Stalls Below RM4,000

BusinessToday

time2 days ago

  • BusinessToday

FCPO Stalls Below RM4,000

FCPO edged up just RM8 to close Monday at RM3,925, after trading in a narrow range between RM3,913 and RM3,954. The session ended with a mildly bearish candle pattern, suggesting persistent uncertainty amid weak market sentiment. RHB Investment Bank Bhd has reiterated a negative trading bias on crude palm oil futures (FCPO), advising traders to maintain short positions as prices continue to hover below key resistance levels. The house noted that the broader trend remains downbeat, with prices still below both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Momentum indicators remain soft, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to trend below the 50% mark, reflecting weak upward strength. Unless FCPO decisively breaks above RM4,000, the bearish outlook is expected to hold. The investment bank recommended that traders who initiated short positions at RM4,328 on April 4 should continue holding, while setting a stop-loss threshold at RM4,000 to manage risks. Support is pegged at RM3,700 and RM3,500, with resistance levels seen at RM4,000 and RM4,100 if prices rebound. Related

SST expansion unlikely to derail construction growth: Analyst
SST expansion unlikely to derail construction growth: Analyst

New Straits Times

time2 days ago

  • New Straits Times

SST expansion unlikely to derail construction growth: Analyst

KUALA LUMPUR: The expanded Sales and Services Tax (SST) is expected to have a limited impact on the construction sector, with exemptions and transitional relief cushioning the effects for most players, said RHB Investment Bank Bhd. In a research note today, the firm maintained its 'Overweight' call on the sector, citing continued momentum in data centre construction and targeted tax exemptions under the revised SST regime. "The Finance Ministry's move to broaden the SST to include construction services, among others, is not entirely unexpected," said analyst Adam Mohamed Rahim. "While a six per cent service tax will be imposed on contractors with annual revenue exceeding RM1.5 million, exemptions for residential and public housing projects, along with business-to-business transactions, should help mitigate the impact," he said. RHB Investment said contractors focused on the residential segment such as MGB Bhd and Kerjaya Prospek Group Bhd are unlikely to be affected. In contrast, those involved in commercial, industrial and infrastructure projects, including Gamuda Bhd, Sunway Construction Group Bhd and IJM Corp Bhd, will fall under the new tax scope. It added that most contractors are expected to incorporate the tax into new bids or revise project values, provided the contracts allow for such adjustments. "Non-reviewable contracts, those without provisions to revise the contract sum, will be granted a 12-month exemption from the implementation date," the research firm said. RHB Investment cited Sunway Construction's RM3.9 billion data centre contract in Johor, 44 per cent of its data centre order book, as potentially exempt if deemed non-reviewable and completed within 12 months. It also downplayed concerns over rising costs, noting that a hypothetical RM180 million in SST across three RM1 billion projects would amount to just 0.2 per cent of full-year earnings for hyperscalers like Google or Microsoft. "The sector's data centre theme remains intact. The SST revision is unlikely to derail investment or construction activity in this space," Adam said. However, RHB Investment warned that any future expansion of the SST to include basic construction materials or residential projects would pose a downside risk.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store