logo
FCPO Stalls Below RM4,000

FCPO Stalls Below RM4,000

BusinessTodaya day ago

FCPO edged up just RM8 to close Monday at RM3,925, after trading in a narrow range between RM3,913 and RM3,954. The session ended with a mildly bearish candle pattern, suggesting persistent uncertainty amid weak market sentiment.
RHB Investment Bank Bhd has reiterated a negative trading bias on crude palm oil futures (FCPO), advising traders to maintain short positions as prices continue to hover below key resistance levels.
The house noted that the broader trend remains downbeat, with prices still below both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Momentum indicators remain soft, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to trend below the 50% mark, reflecting weak upward strength.
Unless FCPO decisively breaks above RM4,000, the bearish outlook is expected to hold. The investment bank recommended that traders who initiated short positions at RM4,328 on April 4 should continue holding, while setting a stop-loss threshold at RM4,000 to manage risks.
Support is pegged at RM3,700 and RM3,500, with resistance levels seen at RM4,000 and RM4,100 if prices rebound. Related

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

QL Resources to remain resilient amid trade tensions
QL Resources to remain resilient amid trade tensions

The Star

time5 hours ago

  • The Star

QL Resources to remain resilient amid trade tensions

Following the removal of the egg subsidy, UOBKH Research said profitability is expected to fall to three sen to five sen per egg. PETALING JAYA: Although QL Resources Bhd remains resilient amid trade tensions and the minimum wage hike policy, its core segments are facing a mixed outlook, according to UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) Research. Based on the company's estimates, only 0.5% of total group sales are US export sales, which primarily consisted of surimi-based products, said the research house. 'Evidently, the tariff war would have a minimal direct impact on QL Resources. 'However, management does not rule out that supply disruptions and curtailed spending may indirectly impact its operations,' said UOBKH Research. Meanwhile, 27% of the company's workforce of 12,000 employees will benefit from the minimum wage revision, which is expected to cost the group an additional RM10mil or a digestible 1.4% of its financial year 2026 (FY26) profit before tax earnings. Management expected to largely absorb it or see a partial cost pass through, the research house noted. QL Resources is involved in integrated livestock farming (ILF), marine products manufacturing and palm oil activities in Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam. For the ILF segment, the government has rationalised its subsidies on eggs, reduced it to from 10 sen per egg to five sen effective since May 1 and subsequently removing it on Aug 1. The company earned an estimated 10 sen per egg under the full subsidy scheme. Following the removal of the egg subsidy, UOBKH Research said profitability is expected to fall to three sen to five sen per egg. To protect its margins, the company is looking to lift its product mix toward its margin accretive branded eggs, which accounts for 20% of its total egg sales. The fishing and fishmeal sub-segments are likely to see extended headwinds, the research house noted. Fishmeal selling price has stabilised, but demand remains weak due to a slowdown in world aquaculture activity. This is further compounded by a higher Peru fishing quota which may exert pressure on prices going forward. In contrast, surimi and surimi-based products could see an improved performance in FY26. In the palm oil segment, growth would be driven by its solar company Plus Xnergy Holdings Sdn Bhd's contributions that are tied to its renewable energy and environmental, social and governance solution business. 'Its palm oil contributions are likely to moderate alongside lower crude palm oil prices that have trended downward to RM3,800 from more than RM4,200 in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25) amid similar fresh fruit bunch production and oil extraction rate output,' UOBKH Research said. The research house is maintaining its 'hold' stance on QL Resources' with an unchanged target price of RM4.80, adding that key risks include unfavourable weather conditions affecting fishing yields, outbreak of poultry diseases and a sharp collapse in crude palm oil prices.

CPO prices to remain under short-term pressure
CPO prices to remain under short-term pressure

The Star

time5 hours ago

  • The Star

CPO prices to remain under short-term pressure

PETALING JAYA: Analysts expect crude palm oil (CPO) prices to remain under pressure in the mid to short-term given the rising inventory and higher output trends. The latest Malaysian Palm Oil Board's palm oil statistics for May revealed that palm oil stocks surged to 1.99 million tonnes, up 6.6% month-on-month and 13.5% year-on-year. Production for the month under review also hit an eight-month high at 1.77 million tonnes. Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research) in a report said the palm oil stock level will likely remain near the two million tonne mark this month. 'This is as seasonally higher crop yields and subdued festive-driven demand are expected to be offset by potentially stronger demand from India, following its recent decision to reduce the import duty on CPO to 10% from 20%,' the research house added. HLIB Research, which is 'neutral' on the sector given the absence of clear demand catalyst, said, 'We maintain our 2025 to 2026 CPO price assumptions of RM4,000 per tonne and RM3,800 per tonne, respectively, with the view that continued output recovery particularly from Indonesia will continue to cap palm oil prices over the near-to-medium term.' For exposure, the research house's top picks are SD Guthrie Bhd with a target price of RM5.17, Johor Plantations Group Bhd at RM1.35 and IOI Corp Bhd at RM4.24. Meanwhile, RHB Research is still 'overweight' on the sector with planters' earnings likely to continue to grow this year, on higher CPO and palm kernel prices. The research house firm said it made no changes to its recommendations after the reporting season for the first quarter of this year (1Q25) as the earnings results were mostly within expectations. RHB Research noted 11 planters under its coverage turning earnings in line with forecasts, while three underperformed. Its top picks within the sector include Johor Plantations, Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd , Bumitama Agri Ltd, PP London Sumatra Indonesia and SD Guthrie Bhd. In Malaysia, RHB Research expects palm oil output should continue ramping up towards the peak season, while demand should also improve, as 'CPO prices are currently within historical discounts versus its competitors'. MIDF Research said in a note to clients: 'We anticipate that the CPO prices will remain stabilised, hovering within the range of RM3,900 to RM4,200 per tonne. 'This is typically in line with seasonal production trends, as the pollination period ends in March and palm oil output is expected to recover – potentially leading to an increase in closing stock levels.' The research house said that the sector's top-line will continue to rise for the first half of this year, in line with higher average CPO price assumptions. 'However, margins are likely to remain under pressure due to the persistent elevated cost of production, caused by the higher locked in fertiliser costs from the second half of last year, coupled with elevated external fresh fruit bunch (FFB) purchase expenses amid low mills utilisation rates,' it added. MIDF Research has maintained a 'neutral' call on the sector at this juncture. While the CPO prices are expected to remain under pressure, it expects production is likely to perform, leading to a ceteris paribus performance for 2025. 'Therefore, we foresee only a handful of players likely to benefit from elevated CPO prices. 'Hence, we recommend avoiding smaller players with significant exposure to external FFB purchases as these factors could risk their CPO production, particularly during the current biological tree rest environment,' the research house noted. Instead, MIDF Research suggested focusing on larger players such as IOI with a target price of RM4.42, SD Guthrie at RM5.43 and Genting Plantations Bhd at RM6.10, whose CPO procurement, which are over 50% from their own estates offers more stability in realising CPO prices. TA Research in a report said its CPO price forecast is unchanged at RM3,800 per tonne for this year. It reiterated a 'hold' call on SD Guthrie, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd and Kim Loong Resources Bhd , while maintaining a 'buy' call on United Malacca Bhd and TSH Resources Bhd .

Crude palm oil prices stabilise as supply concerns ease, stocks rise
Crude palm oil prices stabilise as supply concerns ease, stocks rise

Focus Malaysia

time18 hours ago

  • Focus Malaysia

Crude palm oil prices stabilise as supply concerns ease, stocks rise

THE local CPO price delivery ended the month at RM3,855/Mt with an average price of RM3,881/Mt on higher ending stocks as concerns over limited supply risks dissipated. 'Moving ahead, we anticipate that the crude palim oil (CPO) prices will remain stablised, hovering within the range of RM3,900–4,200/Mt,' said MIDF Research (MIDF) in the recent Monthly Sector Report. This is typically in line with seasonal production trends, as the pollination period ends in March and PO output is expected to recover, potentially leading to an increase in closing stock levels. CPO output in May-25 grew to 1.77 mil tonne or +3.9% year-on-year (yoy) versus prior year, supported by robust growth from the eastern estates, particularly in Sarawak (+6.4% yoy) and Sabah (+13.0% yoy). The fresh fruit bunch (FFB) received by mills inches to 9.05 mil tonne (+1.3% yoy) well supported by a decent average yield of 1.48 tonne /ha, inline with the onset of the seasonally fruitful months. Additionally, the average oil extraction rate (OER) in the mills improved to 19.89%, driven by betterset of crops across most estates. Favourable weather conditions have allowed quicker FFB evacuation activity, bringing the fruitlets with higher oil content. Looking ahead, with the end of the inter-monsoon and pollination periods, drier weather and a faster recovery in FFB evacuation activities expected from May onwards, this allows estate productivity to gain momentum, particularly in terms of harvesting and manuring activities. Note that, local CPO production is projected to reach 19.5 mil Mt in 2025 (+1.0% yoy), with the bulk of the recovery anticipated to materialise in the second half of 2025 (2H25), driven by improved set of crops and estate efficiencies. 'We opine sector's top-line to continue uptick in 1HCY25 in-line with higher average CPO price assumptions,' said MIDF. However, margins are likely to remain under pressure due to the persistent elevated cost of production, caused by higher locked in fertiliser costs of 2HCY24, coupled with elevated external FFB purchase expenses amid low mills utilisation rates. 'We are maintaining neutral call at this juncture, while CPO prices are expected to remain under pressure, production is likely to perform, leading to a ceteris paribus performance for CY25,' said MIDF. Therefore, MIDF foresees only a handful of players likely to benefit from elevated CPO prices. Hence, they recommend avoiding smaller players with significant exposure to external FFB purchases, as the aforementioned factors could risk their CPO production, particularly during the current biological tree rest environment. —June 11, 2025 Main image: Musim MAS

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store