New political poll predicts hung Parliament
The race for Election 2026 appears to be on a knife edge, with a new political poll predicting a hung Parliament.
The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll - taken between 3 and 5 August - comes after a string of negative headlines about the economy.
Labour has overtaken National as the largest party, gaining 2 points to 33.6 percent, while National drops 2.1 points to 31.8 percent.
The Greens are up 0.4 points to 9.8 percent, ACT is down 0.5 points to 8.6 percent, New Zealand First is down 2 points to 7.8 percent and Te Pāti Māori down 0.3 points to 3.2 percent.
If an election were held today, the centre-right bloc would lose four MPs for a total 61 seats, while the centre-left bloc would gain four MP and also reach a total 61 seats.
With neither bloc having the upper hand, it would be a hung Parliament.
The last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll showed the coalition parties reasserting their lead with enough support for 65 seats, driven by a surge in support for New Zealand First. Party vote
Labour 33.6 percent, up 2 percentage points (43 seats)
National 31.8 percent, down 2.1 (40 seats)
Greens: 9.8 percent, up 0.5 (12 seats)
ACT: 8.6 percent, down 0.5 (11 seats)
NZ First: 7.8 percent, down 2 (10 seats)
Te Pāti Māori: 3.2 percent, down 0.3 points (6 seats)
For the minor parties, TOP is up 1.4 points to 2.6 percent, Outdoors and Freedom is up 1 point to 1.1 percent and Vision NZ is up 0.4 points on 0.4 percent.
Cost of living remains voters' most important issue at 24.4 percent (+2.8 points), closely followed by the economy more generally at 20.7 percent (+1.6 points).
Health is the next largest issue on 10.0 percent, followed by employment on 6.0 percent. Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon: 20.2 per cent, up 0.5
Chris Hipkins: 20.2 per cent, up 0.6
Winston Peters: 8.2 per cent, down 1.1
Chlöe Swarbrick: 8 per cent, up 1
David Seymour: 6.2 per cent, up 0.5
In preferred Prime Minister ratings, Christopher Luxon is up 0.5 points to 20.2 percent while Chris Hipkins is up 0.6 points to also sit at 20.2 percent.
Winston Peters is down 1.1 points to 8.2 percent, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 1.0 point to 8 percent, and David Seymour is up 0.5 points to 6.2 percent.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population.
It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent and 6.2 percent were undecided on the party vote question.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Scoop
4 hours ago
- Scoop
Next New Zealand Ambassador To The United States Of America Announced
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Chris Seed will be New Zealand's next Ambassador to the United States of America. 'New Zealand's strategic partnership with the United States is one of our most important and long-standing relationships,' Mr Peters says. 'It is therefore essential that New Zealand's Ambassador to the United States has the necessary experience, judgement and influence to effectively represent our country in Washington DC and navigate the range of important and pressing issues that are vital to New Zealanders. 'Mr Seed is one of New Zealand's most senior and accomplished diplomats and is accordingly the right person for this vital role,' Mr Peters says. Mr Seed served as Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Trade from 2019-2024 and has previously led New Zealand High Commissions in Canberra and Port Moresby. He will take up the role in January 2026. Mr Seed succeeds Rosemary Banks, who will shortly complete her second term as Ambassador in Washington DC. 'Ms Banks has had a most distinguished diplomatic career, having led New Zealand missions in Paris, New York and Washington,' Mr Peters says. 'Twice Ms Banks has been asked by her Government to serve in Washington DC and we are enormously grateful to her that twice she answered that call to serve with distinction as New Zealand Ambassador to the United States. 'Ms Banks' long diplomatic experience and her elevated standing amongst her US counterparts, during such a challenging time in global affairs, has seen her contribute greatly to one of New Zealand's most critical bilateral relationships,' Mr Peters says.
Otago Daily Times
7 hours ago
- Otago Daily Times
Injunction ‘last lifeline' for racing
File photo: Stephen Jaquiery A High Court interim injunction is the "last lifeline" left for the greyhound racing industry, a former trainer says. Greyhound Racing New Zealand is seeking the injunction to stop the government's plan to end greyhound racing in New Zealand. The hearing will be held in Wellington tomorrow. In December last year, Racing Minister Winston Peters announced the government's 20-month plan to wind down the industry to enable the re-homing of racing dogs and to provide a transition period for people involved in the industry. The first race of what could be New Zealand's last season took place last Wednesday. There are six trainers in Southland and Otago and about 40 greyhounds, but not all the dogs race. Southland Greyhound Racing secretary-manager Bronwyn Eade said an interim injunction could buy the industry some time. If the injunction was successful it would stop the process of closing down the industry until a court hearing could be held. "There's a little bit of hope." It would also allow racing to continue beyond July next year when it was scheduled to stop which would extend the time trainers and owners could earn an income, Mrs Eade said. When there was no more racing the owners would be left with the dogs. "The government has said there won't be any compensation for the greyhound owners and trainers." Throughout the country there were about 1500 dogs that would need to be re-homed, Mrs Eade said. Every year about 670 dogs were re-homed at a cost of more than $8 million to Greyhound New Zealand. "You take the racing away, how is that going to be funded?" While the prospect of the sport ending was sad, people were more angry than anything else, she said. Animal welfare was the reason given but the industry had made big improvements in the past eight years, Mrs Eade said. It was hard to know why the government had decided the dogs were not well looked after when the opposite was true, she said. What she found even more puzzling was why the government would continue to allow New Zealanders to bet on Australian greyhound races, which equated to about $48m gross revenue coming into the economy. "There's a double standard and its hypocritical." She said the Australian dogs were not better cared for because New Zealand dogs were the most regulated greyhounds she knew of anywhere in the world. To add insult to injury, the government planned to requisition $15m of Greyhound New Zealand's money. To take money from an incorporated society the government had to prove there was financial misconduct, insolvency or failure to submit returns, she said. As there was no evidence of this the government would need to "fabricate a new law" to allow the money to be taken, Mrs Eade said.
RNZ News
10 hours ago
- RNZ News
Less building consents being given out
housing politics about 1 hour ago Residential building consents are still heading south with 11 out of 16 regions around the country rubber stamping fewer builds compared to last year. Labour has accused the government of effectively hammering a nail in the coffin of building industry by slashing the number of state houses Kainga Ora is building, contributing to a "huge slow down in construction". The Building Minister has said their maths is all wrong. Building industry analyst Mike Blackburn spoke to Lisa Owen.
