Iran-Israel war: Will India need to pick a side? – DW – 06/20/2025
The escalating conflict in the Middle East presents India with tough choices — balancing energy security, economic stability and its delicate diplomacy between Israel and Iran.
India maintains amicable relations with both Israel and Iran, which is the result of a delicate balancing act stretching back many years.
Now, New Delhi finds itself in a precarious position as the Israel-Iran conflict seems to be escalating into a broader confrontation with mounting death tolls and rising uncertainty.
India's diplomatic tightrope
Over the last decade, India has strengthened ties with Israel, particularly in defense and technology. India has acquired advanced weaponry, including Barak 8 defense missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), loitering munitions and sophisticated radar systems.
In last month's short-lived conflict between India and Pakistan, New Delhi reportedly utilized various Israeli-origin weapons, underscoring the importance of the strategic defense partnership.
At the same time, India values its historical and cultural connections with Iran, as well as its strategic role in regional connectivity, energy security, and geopolitical balance. Tehran is also New Delhi's second-largest supplier of crude oil.
Israeli civilian sites hit by barrage of Iranian missiles
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Importantly, Iran acts as India's gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia. The Chabahar Port project on the Gulf of Oman, developed jointly by India and Iran, is central to this strategy, providing India with direct access to this region while bypassing Pakistan.
Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, a regional expert monitoring current events, said that "India needs to maintain its balancing act to protect its security ties with Israel and protect its strategic interests and economic commitment to the Chabahar Port."
"With such contrasting objectives, strategic ambiguity serves the purpose of India being dragged into the conflict, which is bound to widen if the war drags on," D'Souza, founder of the Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies, told DW.
Safeguarding New Delhi's interests
Last week, India's Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement expressing deep concern at the recent developments between Iran and Israel.
"India urges both sides to avoid any escalatory steps. Existing channels of dialogue and diplomacy should be utilised to work towards a de-escalation of the situation and resolving underlying issues," said the statement.
"India enjoys close and friendly relations with both countries and stands ready to extend all possible support," it added.
Sticking to its policy of strategic ambiguity and nonalignment, India distanced itself from a recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) statement denouncing Israel's attacks on Iran.
The SCO is a 10-member bloc created by China and Russia to counter the Western-led global order.India is also a SCO member, despite its regional rivalry with China. Responding to the escalation between Israel and Iran, the SCO expressed "serious concern" and strongly condemned the Israeli military strikes.
Indians seek jobs in Israel amid high unemployment
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P R Kumaraswamy, a professor of Middle Eastern studies specializing in Israeli politics at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, told DW that India's strategic silence on the Israel-Iran conflict, mirrored by its decisive refusal to endorse the SCO, reflects a "calculated, nuanced and matured approach" rooted in its national interests and geopolitical balancing.
"This approach, akin to its neutrality during the Ukraine-Russia war, also recognizes the sentiments in several Arab capitals as they are caught between Israeli actions and a nuclear Iran as their neighbor," said Kumaraswamy.
"Strategic autonomy can also be pursued through calculated and minimalist responses without any rhetorical declarations."
D'Souza, however, said such a policy will be useful as long as the conflict between Israel and Iran is short.
"If it drags on, every move of India will be analyzed and assessed, and its impartiality will be tested, which will be a test case for India's diplomacy," she said.
"It will come under pressure if the conflict prolongs. However, being a votary of diplomacy and dialogue is a prudent policy that will maintain India's principle of non-alignment," she added.
Will India's hand be forced?
Earlier this week, India launched "Operation Sindhu" to evacuate Indian nationals, starting with 110 Indian students from northern Iran. These students were assisted in crossing into Armenia by road under the supervision of Indian diplomats.
Iranians protest Israeli strikes
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Following the successful evacuation from Iran, India extended the operation to include its nationals in Israel. Indian citizens who wish to leave Israel are being evacuated through land borders and then brought to India by air, according to India's Foreign Ministry.
Former diplomat Anil Wadhwa said India would resist the pressure to take a clear side in the conflict unless New Delhi's vital interests like energy, connectivity, or security, are directly threatened.
"Strategic autonomy has been prioritized by India. In the Middle East itself, opinions are divided over Iranian nuclear activities. India, therefore, works on a bilateral basis with its Middle East partners to develop trust and enhance its interests," Wadhwa told DW.
"India will not want to be drawn into bloc-based confrontations. It is building trust through tailored partnerships," he added.
Edited by: Keith Walker
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