2025 NHL Eastern Conference final preview: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers

New York Times

20-05-2025

By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
If not for a pesky New York Rangers second-round win last season (which, if we're being honest, looks a little fortunate in hindsight after their 2025 downfall), this would've been the third straight year that the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers meet in the Eastern Conference final.
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Carolina is the class of the Metropolitan. Florida is the class of the Atlantic. The East goes through them.
More specifically, it goes through the Panthers, who are looking to make their third straight Stanley Cup Final. Can the Hurricanes stop them?
It'll be tight. At least, it should be.
When these two teams faced off two years ago, it was tight — with every game being decided by a single goal and some with many overtimes. It's just that every time, the coin flipped Panthers. Sometimes hockey is like that, where a series that should be tight ends up anything but.
It's possible there's something within the Panthers locker room that makes them innate winners, able to get a consistent coin-flip edge. This version of the Panthers looks the scariest yet, and that added killer instinct makes them feel like an impossible out. They're favorites for a reason.
The beauty of this series is that the Hurricanes will have a shot at redemption, a chance to show they're just as worthy. On paper, with the help of home ice, they're not far off thanks to a deep team that executes a strong defensive structure. In practice, they'll have to earn every inch to prove that.
The Eastern Conference final is a matchup of two of the best five-on-five teams in the league.
The Corsi Canes' identity holds strong, as this team generates a ton of shots on a nightly basis. The shot volume and quality are there, but the scoresheet doesn't always reflect it. That was true in the regular season and continues in the playoffs, with the team creating 3.09 xGF/60 but only 2.16 GF/60 to show for it.
The Panthers were in a similar boat in the regular season, but are converting at a higher rate so far through two rounds with 3.20 GF/60, one of the best rates of the postseason.
The real question is whose offense makes it through their opponents' defense, where there is the narrowest of gaps between these two teams.
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The Canes' shot suppression was elite in the regular season, but their expected and actual goals against were only average. The latter has changed in the playoffs, with Frederik Andersen standing tall in goal.
The Panthers were one of the stingiest regular-season teams, allowing only 2.27 xGA/60 and even fewer goals against. That stout defense has stood out through two rounds, but the goaltending hasn't been as sparkling.
The defensive battle extends to the penalty kill between two of the best short-handed teams. Florida limits its opponents' time and space, while the Canes have a more disruptive approach. If that neutralizes both teams' power plays, then five-on-five scoring will be all the more important in this series.
How big is Florida's star-power edge?
In a rare change of pace, the Hurricanes had the edge in star power at the top of the lineup in Round 2: Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho were the two best players in the series against the Washington Capitals. But that doesn't project to be the case in the Eastern Conference final.
The Panthers aren't a team of aging stars and up-and-comers, like the Caps. The reigning champs have a deep lineup of stars that can match up with some of the best in the league.
Up front, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk combine to a projected Net Rating of plus-46. The Hurricanes' top forwards — Aho, Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov — on the other hand, add up to plus-29.
On paper, that edge looks substantial. But the game isn't just played on paper.
The model is harsh on players like Svechnikov, who didn't have the best regular season. His 2.34 points per 60 in the regular season was fine, but nothing game-breaking. Below the surface, his five-on-five impacts underwhelmed relative to the rest of the team. And this time, there isn't someone like Jake Guentzel to jump over him in the depth chart and provide that extra oomph in the playoffs.
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But unlike last year, the Canes don't need someone from the outside to give them a boost of star power. Svechnikov is proving he can be The Guy for Carolina. Not only is he scoring at a higher pace with 2.98 points per 60 in 10 games, but it's also how he's putting up points. He is playing to his strengths as someone who can create a lot of dangerous chances and convert on them at an impressive rate. For a team that always needs more finish, Svechnikov is bringing it with 2.65 goals per 60, which leads all skaters this postseason.
Between Svechnikov's star-caliber playoff performance and Jarvis' and Aho's two-way play, the Canes' top forwards are pacing a combined plus-42 Net Rating.
And that's equal to the Panthers' current pace.
Barkov and Reinhart have had a fine postseason so far, but neither has dominated their minutes through two rounds. And even more noticeable is that Tkachuk hasn't reached his usual playoff ceiling just yet.
Injuries could be a factor here, considering Tkachuk missed all regular-season play after the 4 Nations Face-Off. As much as he shone in big moments against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1, he wasn't as impactful against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Round 2. The Panthers were the better team in his minutes below the surface, with a 58 percent expected goal rate, but he only tallied four assists in seven games — two at even strength, two on the power play.
If Aho and Jarvis can match Barkov and Reinhart's impact, the series could come down to whether Svechnikov can surpass Tkachuk. That didn't seem possible when the playoffs began, but it is now through two rounds of play. That could be the key to a Canes series win.
As much as two rounds of playoff action matter, history is still on Florida's side. The Panthers have shown exactly what they're capable of in two consecutive trips to the Cup Final. That makes them the safer bet on paper, but the matchup is much closer than it looks.
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Can Frederik Andersen stay hot?
Andersen's always been somewhat of a wild card — not because of his skill, but because of his durability. When he is healthy enough to play, he can be a real difference-maker. That's been a theme throughout his career. Just look at his last few seasons with the Hurricanes: injuries limited him to 22 regular-season appearances this year, 16 last year and 34 the year before. He even missed Game 5 of Round 1 a few weeks ago after a collision with Timo Meier.
A goalie can't help bad injury luck, but can work to be the best version of themself when healthy, and Andersen has done that this year. He saved 15.8 goals above expected in 16 games and has raised his level in the playoffs. Andersen has given his team a chance to win with a quality start in eight of nine games, which adds up to a GSAx of 15, leading all goalies this spring.
Can he keep it up?
The Hurricanes usually don't need a game-breaker in net; they need someone who can come up with timely saves when chances sneak past their defense. Andersen has delivered that through two rounds against easier competition. But the Panthers are a different animal, so this will be a real test for the Canes' back end.
In theory, the Panthers have a sizable edge at the top of the lineup. Barkov, Reinhart and Tkachuk are the best players in this series — a matchup problem the likes of which the Hurricanes have yet to face in these playoffs. The New Jersey Devils only had Nico Hischier to worry about, and the Hurricanes had the star-power edge against the Capitals. Against Florida, it's a different ballgame. As good as Aho, Jarvis and Svechnikov have been, this series will be a challenge.
In practice, though, the Hurricanes could have a bigger problem: Florida's depth. Usually, that's Carolina's biggest advantage, especially on home ice. The Hurricanes' top line is generally good enough to win their matchups or at least keep things close against top-heavy teams, but it's the second, third and fourth lines where Carolina's real edge shines. That may prove much more difficult in this series.
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It wasn't the Panthers' top guys that beat the Lightning or Maple Leafs — it was the totality of a relentless top nine that sent wave after wave of pressure. And it was primarily a third line anchored by deadline-day acquisition Brad Marchand and aided by Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen that has been a matchup nightmare so far.
Without any of those three on the ice against Tampa Bay or Toronto, the scoreline was almost even (16-15) through two rounds at five-on-five. When they're on the ice, though, the Panthers are up 10-2. That's been the difference.
The Hurricanes are significantly more equipped to handle that task than the Lightning or Leafs, two top-heavy teams. They control play better and have needle-movers through all four lines, so it's unlikely Marchand and company will feast to the same degree here. But the likelihood that Florida still wins that matchup anyway is bad math for Carolina, which normally has a stranglehold further down the lineup. Usually, the depth can make up for whatever top-of-the-lineup inefficiencies Carolina has. Here? It's a lot trickier.
In that sense, the Hurricanes will need a lot more out of Jordan Staal. The veteran shutdown center is still projected to be one of the league's best defensive forwards, but he hasn't delivered on that promise in these playoffs yet. His 39 percent goal rate is a team-worst, and with 2.84 xGA/60, he's not even limiting chances against. Staal still takes on the toughest matchups for the Hurricanes and will have his work cut out for him here. It's not all on him, but he serves as a strong starting point. If Staal can be his Selke self, the Hurricanes have a shot. The version we've seen in the playoffs so far won't cut it.
No matter how you slice it — player by player, line by line or as a whole — Florida's forwards are just better. Based on that alone, this series probably feels like a mismatch. And we didn't even mention Carter Verhaeghe or Sam Bennett yet, either, two guys known to deliver when it matters most. The Panthers are loaded with weapons up front.
Carolina makes up ground with an extremely deep back end and a potential edge between the pipes. As loaded as the Panthers are offensively, they'll face their toughest defensive challenge yet in Carolina.
That's led by Jaccob Slavin, one of the league's absolute best two-way defenders. He's a premier shutdown threat who doesn't sacrifice offense to get there, even if he doesn't put up points. Brent Burns has been a suitable partner for him despite his age and the pair has heavily outscored their opponents so far while playing the toughest minutes.
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Beyond them the Hurricanes have no holes. The second pair of Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield is solid in both directions, while Shayne Gostisbehere delivers some offensive punch in a sheltered role. Sean Walker has been shockingly excellent in these playoffs, too.
While the Panthers can more than match the top of that group with the likes of Gustav Forsling, Seth Jones and Aaron Ekblad, the blue line thins out a bit after them. As solid as the trifecta of Niko Mikkola, Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Kulikov are defensively, they all lack offensive dimension.
The X-factor with Florida's blue line is Seth Jones, who has been a defensive beast in these playoffs. The Panthers have allowed just 1.8 xGA/60 and GA/60 with Jones on the ice, both of which are right up there with the team's best. His plus-2.3 Defensive Rating leads the playoffs, a strong statement of what Jones is capable of in the right situation. He may not have provided the expected offensive jolt, especially on the power play, but he has solidified Florida's blue line.
All of that could be moot if Andersen stays hot, and that's where the Panthers will need a dialed-in Sergei Bobrovsky to bring it home.
Two years ago, Bobrovsky was near perfect against Carolina allowing just six goals over four games thanks to a .966 save percentage where Bobrovsky saved a mind-boggling 12.8 goals above expected. The Panthers won't need that same level of play to get by, but they will need Bobrovsky at his best against Carolina's barrage of shots.
That was a shaky bet halfway through the series against Toronto, but the fact he started to round into form could be a scary sign for Carolina.
Going into Game 4, Bobrovsky had a below-average GSAx rate in six of eight games leading to an .875 save percentage and 3.7 goals allowed above expected — the third-worst mark in the playoffs. In the four games since, he had a .957 and saved 8.2 goals above expected. He looks locked in and the Hurricanes look designed to feed into that.
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The Hurricanes have the talent to make this close, but they'll have to prove themselves against the defending champs who simply have a little bit more.
Jaccob Slavin vs. Gustav Forsling
Ask any hockey person who the best defenders in the world are and you'll likely get two of the same guys mentioned a lot: Slavin and Forsling. They're the new blueprint for shutdown excellence.
Slavin and Forsling are rocks for their respective teams, the rare No. 1 defenseman whose primary focus is their defensive game rather than dynamic offense — though not sacrificing offense in the name of defense is part of the key. Perhaps there's a lesson there for teams angling to go as deep as these two teams routinely do.
One of those lessons is what good defense looks like. With Slavin and Forsling, it's smarts more than snarl. It's moving the puck more than staying at home. It's playing the puck more than laying the body. More than anything, it's about finding the perfect balance between safe and aggressive, picking spots and snuffing out danger before there's even a threat of it. Proactive instead of reactive.
The two are a major catalyst for their teams reaching the conference finals yet again. Now they battle for defensive supremacy to see who gets to go further.
The Hurricanes are more than good enough to win this series with plenty of attention to detail around the margins. Andersen at his best could be enough to put them over the top.
But they'll need the bulk of the lineup, the most important players, to step up in order to counter Florida's best. That's a tall order given how Florida has played so far — no matter how close it looks on paper.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey-Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Photo of Brent Burns and Aleksander Barkov: Rich Storry / Imagn Images)