Warming US-Russia ties could put China's Arctic ambitions on ice, experts warn

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16-03-2025

China is expected to redefine its Arctic policy - including an ambition to become a great polar power by 2030 - amid growing scrutiny from far northern countries and a possible US-Russia cooperation deal for the region, according to experts and insiders.
Beijing put forward its plan for a "Polar Silk Road" - as a complement to its massive infrastructure scheme, the Belt and Road Initiative - in a 2018 white paper that envisioned greater access to the Arctic's rich natural resources and a bigger role in its governance.
China's description of itself in the plan as a "near-Arctic state" - despite sitting 1,400km (870 miles) south of the Arctic Circle and having no territory in the region - raised the suspicions of the US and its allies, in the midst of intensifying geopolitical rivalries.
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It also provoked a backlash from the Arctic countries - including Russia, which stretches across more than half of the region's coastline and has long prioritised maintaining its sovereignty there.
Since then, China has put more emphasis on science diplomacy - including a focus on building heavy icebreakers and carrying out polar observations - while largely toning down its other ambitions.
According to Marc Lanteigne, a professor of political science at the Arctic University of Norway, "China has been trying to rework what the Polar Silk Road is all about and it has also started to take a more practical approach to the Arctic".
An insider with direct knowledge of the situation, who spoke on condition of anonymity, noted that Beijing's interest in continuing its Arctic push had appeared to decline in response to the geopolitical tensions.
"The Chinese interest was really first announced quite aggressively in the white paper [with] the term near-Arctic state that everybody seems to have had problems with," the insider said.
"Now the Chinese have stopped using that term and I think we've seen a withdrawal, or a significantly lower Chinese interest in the Arctic."
However, Duncan Depledge, an Arctic expert and lecturer in geopolitics and security at Loughborough University in Britain, noted the continued emphasis on building heavy icebreakers. "I'm not convinced that China's interest in the Arctic has declined," he said.
"I believe China is still very interested in many of the opportunities that exist to become more involved in Arctic science and commerce."
The commitment to carry out polar observations and develop heavy icebreakers is part of China's national development strategy, written into the 14th five-year plan for 2021-25.
China now has four of the sturdy vessels, of which the latest is the Jidi, which means "polar region". It was completed last year to support research in the Arctic alongside the Xuelong 1 and Xuelong 2 icebreakers.
In an interview with People's Daily in October, the China State Shipbuilding Corporation's chief expert Wu Gang said that "the key technical challenge now for China is to build heavy icebreakers".
With expertise concentrated in the Arctic nations and only Russia possessing nuclear-powered icebreakers, China still faced a "long and difficult road ahead", according to Wu's remarks in the report.
China and Russia have been working together to develop the sea routes that are opening up as a result of global warming, raising the possibility of a lucrative permanent sea lane that would slash shipping times between Europe and Asia.
In August last year, Premier Li Qiang and his Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin signed a joint communique in which the two countries agreed to develop Arctic shipping routes.
State-owned Chinese companies have also been exploring the region's natural resources. In December, the China Oilfield Services rig COSL Prospector discovered up to 52 million barrels of oil in an appraisal well in Norwegian Arctic waters.
China's fourth polar icebreaker Jidi has undertaken several research missions since it was delivered for service in June 2024. Photo: CCTV alt=China's fourth polar icebreaker Jidi has undertaken several research missions since it was delivered for service in June 2024. Photo: CCTV>
Nato has been concerned about China's activities in the region, including its collaboration with Russia, the only non-member of the military alliance that sits on the Arctic Council, the inter-governmental organisation established in 1996.
The other members of the council are the United States, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Sweden. China and 12 other countries - including France, Germany and Japan - have observer status and can take part in its discussions.
In 2022, Nato's then secretary general Jens Stoltenberg stressed the need for the alliance to establish a stronger presence around the North Pole, where Russian military activities were on the rise.
There are signs that China-Russia cooperation in the region is extending to military operations. In October, the Chinese coastguard joined its Russian counterpart on patrol for the first time, sailing from the North Pacific into the Arctic Ocean.
Without naming China directly, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said in December that Ottawa needed to be "tough" in its response to growing Arctic competition because "many countries, including non-Arctic states, aspire for a greater role in Arctic affairs".
Canadian concerns were also raised in 2020, when Ottawa blocked Chinese state-owned Shandong Gold Mining from acquiring a Toronto-based firm that runs a gold mine in the Arctic, on national security grounds.
But Beijing's collaboration with Moscow should be viewed as "more occasional than strategic", according to the anonymous insider. "I think it's very important that we distinguish clearly between Russia and China," the source said.
"Russia poses an immediate military threat and the Chinese goals are more long term - focused on research and shipping - and [China's] military interest tends to be quite far away [from Nordic countries]."
The sudden warming of the relationship between Russia and the US since President Donald Trump's return to the White House may also affect China's Arctic ambitions, according to Loughborough University's Depledge.
China's bilateral ties with Russia have deepened significantly over the years, strengthened by their shared view of the US as a rival, and culminated in Beijing's pledge of a "no-limits" partnership with Moscow, days before the invasion of Ukraine.
But Washington's sudden shift on its Ukraine stance under Trump has created uncertainties for Beijing, with the US pursuing a ceasefire while also looking to restore relations with Russia.
Trump has already expressed an interest in the Arctic and a deal between the US and Russia that includes cooperation in the region could get under way after their discussions on Ukraine.
"I think China for now will struggle, particularly in a scenario where Trump and Putin made a deal on the Arctic, which was explicitly trying to exclude China from the region," Depledge said.
"If all of that happens, then it becomes a question of who would Russia rather work with? Would they rather work with China or would they rather work with Trump? Or will they seek to maintain a balance between the two?"
Given the shifting dynamics between Washington and Moscow, China's reliance on Russia for its access to the Arctic could be "a risky strategy", according to Depledge, who also noted that "it would be quite hard for China to find other ways in".
Lanteigne, from the Arctic University of Norway also noted that China remained dependent on "Russia's goodwill" to access the polar region, while pointing out that there was added uncertainty for Beijing arising from a less functional Arctic Council.
In addition to its role in negotiating treaties - such as search and rescue agreements and scientific collaborations - the council is tasked with addressing the implications of climate change, which could lead to tensions with a climate-sceptic Trump White House.
Russia's presence on the assembly has been weakened by the war in Ukraine, while there are already strains in US ties with council members Canada and Denmark - over tariffs and the future of Greenland, respectively.
The anonymous insider described the Arctic Council as a "struggling" organisation, adding that - given the geopolitical circumstances - "to keep it alive alone is probably going to be hard".
A dysfunctional Arctic Council could lead to China losing its platform to build collaborative partnerships with the far northern countries, take part in scientific research, and channel its influence in the region.
This could be seen as one of the most urgent significant issues facing Beijing as it considers the changing Arctic landscape and broader geopolitical shifts that are taking place, according to Lanteigne.
"Right now, the biggest question is how the council will be able to function under these circumstances. And if it's not able to function, this will probably cause a lot of debate within China about, what do we do next."
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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