Win, draw, or wait? What Socceroos need to do against Japan to avoid a playoff nightmare
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Australia's Socceroos are on the brink of securing a direct qualification in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for the 2026 FIFA World Cup after a tense 1–1 draw against Japan . The match will begin at 7:00 PM AWST on Thursday, June 5, 2025, at Optus Stadium in Perth and will be watched by a lively home crowd eager to see their national team take a big step toward the expanded World Cup in North America. This fixture was the second-last in Australia's AFC Third Round qualifying campaign.In Perth, Japan fielded an experimental squad after clinching qualification. Australia hasn't defeated Japan in 16 years, but coach Tony Popovic insists that his team has evolved and can nearly guarantee qualification in Perth. Popovic praised the team's growth since a prior draw with Japan last October.Australia has two final qualifiers: against Japan (home) and against Saudi Arabia (away). They currently sit three points above Saudi Arabia with a superior goal difference of +9 and a three-point lead, meaning a win over Japan would virtually secure second place, if Saudi Arabia loses to Bahrain.A draw could also suffice, depending on Saudi and Indonesian results. A loss would require a strong draw in Jeddah to hold off the Saudis.A key figure in the Australian squad is defender Alessandro Circati . The 21‑year‑old returned from an ACL injury ahead of schedule and is now fully fit to play for his hometown side in Perth. His return boosts the Socceroos' back line. Mat Ryan, the veteran goalkeeper, also remains confident and focused on helping Australia secure the points needed.Midfielders Riley McGree and Ryan Teague bring fresh energy. McGree adds experience, while Teague seeks to build on his recent national team debut.Veteran Milos Degenek has warned of the risks associated with the intercontinental playoff path. Australia has taken that path in 2018 and 2022 and sees it as a tougher, more uncertain path. He hoped for direct qualification through securing top-two status in Group C.With only two matches left, this is the Socceroos' final window to avoid a playoff. Popovic and his team will be hoping to utilize the team's improved form, strong defence, and home advantage.However, the campaign's fate also hinges on results from other matches. Saudi Arabia and Indonesia's games could influence Australia's path. For now, one win or even two draws could deliver them straight to North America's expanded 48-team World Cup 2026.
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