Fact Check: The just-passed 'Big Beautiful Bill' will increase national debt by trillions of dollars, according to CBO
H.R. 1, the budget omnibus bill U.S. President Donald Trump called the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," will add trillions of dollars to the national debt.
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Amid the U.S. Congress' voting and deliberations over the annual budget bill in June and July 2025, which President Donald Trump deemed "One Big Beautiful Bill," was — as usual — some conversation around how the proposed changes would affect the national debt.
In particular, posts on social media popped up claiming that the bill would add "$3.9 trillion to the national debt."
The number in the claim, theoretically, comes from nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reports. The office is required by federal law to provide estimates on how major legislation would affect the federal budget, including the budget bill — H.R. 1.
However, the numbers in those reports change as legislators workshop and amend the bill. For instance, on June 18, the CBO's report on the version of H.R. 1 passed by the House of Representatives found the bill would increase the federal debt by about $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. Meanwhile, on June 29, the CBO released data on the Senate's version of the bill that found it would increase the federal debt by about $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years.
In this case, the $3.9 trillion estimate appeared to come not from the CBO but from the Committee for a Responsible Budget, a nonprofit group that advocates for cutting government spending and reduce the national debt.
While the number in social media posts was not based on CBO reports, the claim that the CBO found Trump's budget bill would add trillions of dollars to the national debt over the next 10 years was true.
The federal government's budget surplus is calculated by subtracting the amount of money the government spends in a given year from the amount of money it raises. When the government spends more than it earns, the budget is in a deficit, as has been the case since 2001.
The debt is the total of the yearly deficits. According to the Treasury Department's website, the national debt is $36.21 trillion, as of this writing. (The government also must pay interest on the debt.)
On July 1, the Senate passed the bill — Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina joined all Democrats to vote no, with Vice President JD Vance breaking the 50-50 tie.
The bill returned to the House of Representatives to reconcile the two versions. The House passed it in a 218-214 vote (two Republicans joined all Democrats to vote against it) on July 3. Trump said he would sign the bill on July 4.
CBO Score Shows Senate OBBBA Adds Over $3.9 Trillion to Debt-2025-06-28. 28 Jun. 2025, https://www.crfb.org/blogs/cbo-score-shows-senate-obbba-adds-over-39-trillion-debt.
Estimated Budgetary Effects of an Amendment in the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Relative to the Budget Enforcement Baseline for Consideration in the Senate | Congressional Budget Office. 28 Jun. 2025, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61533.
Fiscal Data Explains the National Debt. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/. Accessed 3 Jul. 2025.
Fiscal Data Explains the National Deficit. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/. Accessed 3 Jul. 2025.
Green, Justin. "Senate's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' Would Add $3.3 Trillion in New Debt: CBO." Axios, 29 Jun. 2025, https://www.axios.com/2025/06/29/senate-big-beautiful-bill-deficits-debt.
Gross Domestic Product. 26 Jun. 2025, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP.
H.R. 1, One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Dynamic Estimate) | Congressional Budget Office. 17 Jun. 2025, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61486.
Izzo, Jack. "Posts Online Correctly Cracked the Formula for Trump's Tariffs." Snopes, 4 Apr. 2025, https://www.snopes.com//news/2025/04/03/trump-tariff-formula/.
Sangal, Deva Lee, Leinz Vales, Maureen Chowdhury, Shania Shelton, Aditi. "Live Updates: Congress Passes Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' | CNN Politics." CNN, 3 Jul. 2025, https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-big-beautiful-bill-house-vote-07-03-25.
"Senate Republicans Advance Trump's Tax and Spending Cuts Bill after Dramatic Late-Night Vote." AP News, 28 Jun. 2025, https://apnews.com/article/trump-tax-breaks-spending-cuts-senate-deadline-8c72d6db7c9725d9d56db8294012809e.
Stein, Chris, and Rachel Leingang. "Senate Republicans Pass Trump's Sweeping Policy Bill, Clearing Major Hurdle." The Guardian, 1 Jul. 2025. The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/01/senate-passes-big-beautiful-bill-vote.
Swift, Rocky, et al. "Trump's 'big, Beautiful' Bill Set to Further Tarnish Treasuries' Lustre Overseas." Reuters, 30 Jun. 2025. www.reuters.com, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-set-further-tarnish-treasuries-lustre-overseas-2025-06-30/.
"The One Big Beautiful Bill Slashes Deficits, National Debt While Unleashing Economic Growth." The White House, 30 Jun. 2025, https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/06/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-slashes-deficits-national-debt-while-unleashing-economic-growth/.
U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 119th Congress - 1st Session. https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1191/vote_119_1_00372.htm#position. Accessed 3 Jul. 2025.
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