India set for record wheat harvest after favourable weather boosts yield

Business Standard

22-05-2025

India's wheat output, which was threatened by the second-warmest February in over a century, is likely to be a bumper one this year as favorable weather during the crucial grain-filling stage improved yields.
The world's second-biggest grower is set for a record harvest as climatic conditions were good, and there were no reports of any major damage due to hailstorms or crop diseases, said Ratan Tiwari, director of state-run Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research. The increased use of climate-resilient, high-yielding seeds further helped in improving productivity, he said.
The brighter crop prospect is prompting flour millers to ask the government to lift a ban on exports of wheat products, said Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India. It's a change in their stance just weeks after the group sought a cut in import tax due to output concerns.
'Government granaries are full, while private trade has enough stocks,' Chitlangia said, adding that harvesting of the staple is in its last leg across the country. The government should allow exports of wheat products, he said.
India's production is expected to hit a record 117 million tons, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts. That would help lift its end-of-season stockpiles to a four-year high, it said.
Higher production in India may potentially put pressure on global wheat prices, which have risen almost 3 per cent so far this month. That would also help in a further reduction in the country's food inflation.
The South Asian nation banned overseas sales of the grain in 2022 after the hottest March in more than a century that year parched fields and crimped output. In contrast, average temperatures in key growing areas this year were not too harsh for wheat plants, Tiwari said.
After the completion of wheat purchases by government agencies, the food ministry will assess the country's requirements and discuss with other departments to examine the possibility of allowing exports, Food Minister Pralhad Joshi told reporters on Tuesday.
State-run Food Corp. of India has bought 29.6 million tons of wheat as of May 19 for the government's welfare programs, about 14 per cent higher than a year earlier. Total procurement from this year's crop may climb 22 per cent to 32.5 million tons, Joshi said.
The farm ministry estimated in March that production will rise to an all-time high of 115.43 million tons in 2024-25. The market participants were not convinced about the accuracy of the prediction as the crop was still at an early stage and weather was fluctuating. However, most of the growing areas didn't witness any adverse weather, such as heavy rain or abnormal temperatures.