4 Auto Stocks Likely to Outperform Q2 Earnings Estimates
Things to Note
U.S. vehicle sales witnessed modest year-over-year growth in the second quarter thanks to robust demand for gasoline-powered and hybrid vehicles. Per Cox Automotive, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new vehicle units are pegged at 15.3 million in June.Per J.D. Power, in June, retail vehicle inventory reached 2.16 million units, up 22.9% from June 2024. The average transaction prices of vehicles in June rose $46,233, up $1,400 from June 2024. The higher tariffs on imports initially spurred demand among price-sensitive buyers, temporarily boosting sales. However, as higher prices became the norm, that momentum started to fade. Additionally, elevated operating costs, particularly in research and development aimed at creating advanced technologies to keep up with the evolving auto industry, are likely to have weighed on earnings.
Picking Potential Winners
While it is not possible to be sure about which companies are well-positioned to beat earnings estimates, our proprietary methodology — Earnings ESP — makes it relatively simple. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Earnings ESP shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate.You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Our research shows that for stocks with the above-mentioned combination, the chances of an earnings beat are as high as 70%.
Our Choices
Cummins: Cummins is the world's largest engine manufacturer, with a strong product lineup and wide global reach that support its long-term growth. The acquisition of Meritor has enhanced its position as a top provider of integrated powertrain solutions for both internal combustion and electric vehicles. The company is actively positioning itself for long-term growth by ramping up its capabilities in electrification, fuel cell technology, and green hydrogen production. Through its HELM platform, CMI delivers higher efficiency and lower emissions, reinforcing its commitment to clean energy. It expects continued momentum in its electrolyzer technology, supported by a growing pipeline of orders. Cummins currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.79% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug. 8. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMI's to-be-reported quarter's earnings and revenues is pegged at $4.99 per share and $8.47 billion, respectively. CMI surpassed earnings estimates in the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 14.22%.
Cummins Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Cummins Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cummins Inc. Quote
Rivian: Rivian aims to broaden its reach with the upcoming R2 and R3 models, targeting more budget-conscious consumers. The R2, a midsize SUV, is slated for launch in the first half of 2026 with a starting price around $45,000 — significantly lower than the premium R1 lineup. Rivian views the R2 as a key growth driver, citing major cost efficiencies in both materials and manufacturing. The EV maker is benefiting from engineering optimizations, supply chain savings and lower commodity costs. The second-generation R1 models are expected to reduce material costs by 20%, while operational efficiencies at the Normal plant further support cost-cutting efforts. Rivian achieved positive gross profit for the second straight quarter in the first quarter of 2025 and aims for modest gross profit for the full year 2025. RIVN has an Earnings ESP of +8.53% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian's to-be-reported quarter's revenues is pegged at $1.26 billion. The EPS estimate for the second quarter has moved up by 8 cents in the past 90 days. Rivian surpassed earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 10.81%.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Rivian Automotive, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Rivian Automotive, Inc. Quote
Lucid: Recent developments bode well for the LCID's long-term story. Lucid vehicles are now compatible with Tesla's Supercharger network, giving Lucid owners access to more than 23,500 chargers. This move improves convenience and could boost Air sales in particular. It also recently struck a major deal with Uber to supply more than 20,000 vehicles equipped with Nuro's autonomous tech. Uber has also invested $300 million into Lucid, providing both a cash cushion and a potential sales flywheel as its cars join Uber's global EV fleet. Lucid is also rolling out over-the-air software updates to improve its tech, with new driver-assist features arriving July 30.Lucid has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LCID's to-be-reported quarter's revenues is pegged at $253.4 million. The EPS and revenue estimates imply year-over-year growth of 26.4% and 24.1%, respectively. Lucid surpassed earnings estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, with the average negative surprise being 6.13%.
Lucid Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Lucid Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Lucid Group, Inc. Quote
American Axle: American Axle is advancing in the electric drive space, with its Inovance collaboration boosting electrification revenues. Its expanding electrification portfolio strengthens its market position. As the shift toward electrification occurs, AXL leads with advanced electric propulsion technology. Key launches, including a high-performance eDrive unit for a premium European OEM and electric powertrain components for pickups and commercial trucks, drive growth.
American Axle's efforts to optimize its portfolio via buyouts and divestitures bode well. The acquisition of Metaldyne Performance Group has widened American Axle's operating scale, customer base and end markets. During the first quarter, the company exited its Hefei and Liuzhou AAM automotive joint ventures in China, generating approximately $30 million in cash. AXL's impending deal to sell its commercial vehicle axle business in India, expected to be completed by the end of the second quarter of 2025, will help the company to sharpen its focus on ICE, hybrid and fully electric applications across passenger cars, pickup trucks/SUVs and vans worldwide.American Axle has an Earnings ESP of +17.59% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug. 8. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AXL's to-be-reported quarter's earnings and revenues is pegged at 13 cents and $1.51 billion, respectively. American Axle surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 591.25%.
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. Quote
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