Paul Skenes' scintillating start is like nothing we've seen — and more history awaits

New York Times

3 days ago

What's wrong with Paul Skenes?
All right, now that we have your attention, that answer is: Not a thing (of course)! If anything about Paul Skenes is wrong, none of us should even want to be right.
That's because he's still doing what he does — namely, stamping his name atop the Greatest Young Pitcher of All Time list. And no, we don't make that claim lightly. However, something did happen in Skenes' latest start for the Pirates, on Thursday night, that should command all of your attention:
Believe it or not, he gave up seven hits in a start …
For the first time in his career.
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It took him (ready for this?) 47 starts. But still, how could we not ask: What's wrong? What the heck happened? And … oh, wait, he still forgot to allow a run, because of course he did.
Nevertheless, this shocking seven-hitter against the Reds was all the inspiration we needed to alert the Weird and Wild Department to dig in once again on the life and times of Skenes, a pitcher unlike any we've seen in our lifetimes. And we feel remarkably confident in saying that — possibly because we feel remarkably confident that everyone reading this is under 115 years old.
Seven is his lucky number! Imagine being so good, so unhittable, that giving up seven hits (in six shutout innings) becomes an actual topic of national conversation. But that's where we are with this guy.
So yes, we asked our friends from STATS Perform the question we've lured you into wondering about by now: Is that a record? Has any other starter made it 47 starts into a career before he allowed seven hits (or more) for the first time?
Ready for the answer from STATS? No! Just him.
STATS' Brady Olson looked at all (non-opener) starters in the modern era (1901-present). And 47 is the most starts — by far — anyone has ever made it into their career before giving up seven hits for the first time. Here's that leaderboard.
Most consecutive starts, allowing 6 hits or fewer, to start career
(Minimum: 2+ IP in each start)
If we lower the bar below two innings, it would allow Mets reliever Ryne Stanek to jump to the top of the list with 56. But none of his career 'starts' have come as a traditional starter. So let's dig into our bag of asterisks and lump him into a whole separate category. Sorry, Ryne!
If we waive that two-inning caveat, it would also allow Shohei Ohtani — who made two short starts after the 2020 season began — to jump into second place, with 31. But even the great Ohtani is a long way from Skenes-ville.
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So once again, Paul Skenes made history this week, even if some of you didn't realize it. But fasten your seat belt. There's more Skenes history coming right up.
He can't get off the interstate! Check out Skenes' first two big-league seasons. See if you notice anything special about them.
That's right. This dude is on the way to ERAs below 2.00 in each of his first two big-league seasons. And you should know how ridiculous that is.
Here are the four pitchers in the live-ball era (since 1920) who have spun off back-to-back seasons with ERAs under 2.00 at any point in their careers (minimum: 23 starts):
Hal Newhouser, 1945-46
Sandy Koufax, 1963-64
Greg Maddux, 1994-95
Clayton Kershaw, 2013-14
(Source: Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia)
Just so you know, that's three guys with plaques in Cooperstown — and a fourth (Kershaw) who should already have his speech written. And even if we start this clock in the dead-ball era, in 1913 (the first year earned runs became official in both leagues), we can still find only two pitchers with a longer streak than this. And they're both legends.
Walter Johnson, 1913-16 (4)
Grover C. Alexander, 1915-17 (3)
Catch-23! But wait. We should mention something else here. You know how old (or young) Skenes is? How about 23! Want to guess how many pitchers since 1913 have had sub-2.00 ERAs in back-to-back seasons when they were this young? Zero would be a cool guess!
Even if we go back before 1913, and use the estimated ERAs you'll find over at Baseball Reference, here's what we're looking at: Skenes would still be on track to become the first starting pitcher to do this, by age 23 or younger, since Walter Johnson – in 1910-11.
Roll that around your tongue for a second: Most dominating young pitcher since Walter Johnson. That's what we're watching, friends. Incredible.
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No traffic on I-95! After 47 big-league starts, Skenes' career ERA sits at an incomprehensible 1.95. As Mike Petriello detailed this week at MLB.com, that's a number we should not let zip by us without a moment's reflection.
Lowest career ERA, first 47 starts, live-ball era
1.95 — Paul Skenes
2.26 — Dwight Gooden
2.40 — José Fernández
2.49 — Jacob deGrom
(Source: Baseball Reference / Stathead)
One more time, think about this! The complete list of starting pitchers, in the last 105 years, with ERAs below 2.00 at this stage of their careers consists of just one name. Yep. That guy!
And what if he keeps this up! Is it really possible that Skenes is going to make it through his first two big-league seasons with an ERA that doesn't even start with a '2?' Sure seems like it. Does that seem hard? Let's go with yes.
A few months ago, in our annual Numbers That Define Baseball preseason column, we foreshadowed this possibility.
I looked at every starting pitcher in history who worked at least 250 innings total in their first two big-league seasons. If Skenes still has a career ERA below 2.00 after Year Two — and at this point, why would we think he won't — he would join only one other name on the all-time list.
The last (and only) pitcher to do that since earned runs became an official stat was Dutch (Not Born Anywhere Near Amsterdam) Leonard — who had a 1.73 ERA in his first two seasons, in the heart of the dead-ball era in 1913-14. He did that almost 90 years before Skenes' debut season on Planet Earth!
As I pointed out in that column, 1913-14 was a slightly different time. You know how many players hit 20 homers in a season in those two years? None!
Ah, but never forget he's a Pirate! So if this were anyone else, pitching for any other team, imagine what Paul Skenes' won-lost record might look like this season. Let's go with, say, 22-2!
But we now return you to reality, which sure looks a lot like the Roberto Clemente Bridge. So what's Skenes' record in actual life, in actual Pittsburgh? How about 7-8!
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And that got us wondering. Is that even possible? Has anybody else with an ERA that good ever made it through a whole season with a losing record?
The good news for Skenes: That answer is yes! So he does have company.
The bad news for Skenes: To find the last full-time starter to do it, you'd have to jump in your time machine and travel back 112 years! There you'd find the only other starter to pull this off — a fellow named Jim Scott, of the 1913 White Sox.
Scott's ERA that season: 1.90. His won-lost record: 20-21.
According to Baseball Reference, Scott's nickname was 'Death Valley Jim.' Little did he know we'd be dredging up his weird and wild season (and nickname) more than a century later. But that's what we do here.
When a one-of-a-kind talent like Paul Skenes enters the chat, there's only one way to put his exploits in perspective: Time travel. Only seems fitting, since back here in the present, we are watching a man do things we have literally never seen … and maybe never will again.
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