Can Asia lead a fractured and shifting world?

AllAfrica

12 hours ago

In a time when global trust is unravelling and crises overlap like fault lines, the world feels like a house with its foundations shifting. Climate change is accelerating faster than anticipated. Inequality is deepening. The international order is filled with noise but devoid of direction.
Wars have returned to Europe and the Middle East. Major powers are polarizing internally, and solidarity between nations is losing its meaning. And yet, in the midst of this global turbulence, one region is quietly moving in the opposite direction: Asia.
According to the Sustainable Development Report 2025, East and South Asia have recorded the fastest progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) since 2015. Driven by rapid gains in poverty reduction, education and public health, the region now stands at the forefront of global SDG momentum.
But this progress is emerging within a broken world. The war in Ukraine, ongoing conflict in Gaza, rising protectionism, and a breakdown in global financial fairness have disrupted supply chains, inflated food and energy prices, and forced many developing countries to choose between debt repayment and feeding their populations.
The United States and Europe, preoccupied with domestic priorities and regional security, have stepped back from the role of global development champions. As the SDR 2025 warns, 'international spillovers and exposure to supply-chain disruptions' have become a defining threat to SDG progress, especially in conflict zones or economies under sanctions.
The consequences are stark: globally, only around 17% of SDG targets are on track to be achieved by 2030. The rest are stagnating or regressing. This is not due to a lack of capacity or knowledge, but because of a crisis of solidarity, a collapse of financing and growing geopolitical instability.
The Middle East and Eastern Europe are among the worst affected, showing sharp declines across key goals like SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions). When development becomes collateral damage of political warfare, the world loses its shared compass.
In contrast, East and South Asia stand as a counter-current. Countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Vietnam and even Uzbekistan have shown remarkable SDG momentum—reducing extreme poverty, expanding basic education, strengthening health systems, and investing in social protection.
These aren't perfect stories, but they are real ones. They prove that transformation is possible—even amid fiscal constraints and global chaos. In a world coming apart at the seams, Asia is holding the thread.
Indonesia, at the heart of this rising tide, occupies a unique position. Its SDG Index rank in 2025 stands at 77 out of 167—not top-tier, but steady. Not spectacular, but consistent. More importantly, Indonesia has consistently submitted its Voluntary National Reviews, showing institutional commitment to sustainable development.
As a G20 member and the largest democracy in Southeast Asia, Indonesia has the moral and strategic legitimacy to bridge the global divide—between developed and developing nations, between ambition and accountability.
But leadership does not happen by default. It must be shaped. Not by economic numbers alone, but by the ability to offer direction. The world today is not short on technology or capital—it's short on compass. In the absence of credible global leadership, what's needed is not dominance, but direction. And that is where Asia's opportunity lies.
Asia carries with it a deep memory of pain and resilience. Its past includes colonial wounds, mass poverty, natural disasters, and economic crises. But that history has given rise to a muscle of survival that is now evolving into a vision for transformation. Asia knows how to grow without waiting to be saved.
Its cultures of collectivism, its internal diversity, and its experience navigating crisis without losing hope—these are not weaknesses. They are the very foundation of a different kind of leadership: one that is grounded rather than arrogant, inclusive rather than imposing.
Yet, Asia's rise is not without its own dangers. Geopolitical tensions within the region—over the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the Korean Peninsula—threaten the very stability it has worked hard to preserve. The global conflicts it has so far weathered from a distance may begin to spill over.
If Asia wants to lead a fractured world, it must first preserve peace in its own neighborhood. That means strengthening regional solidarity, reforming domestic financial systems, and investing in green transitions and social equity. Without these, momentum could turn to fragility.
Indonesia again stands as a compelling example. Not because it has solved all problems, but because of where it stands: a democracy with scale, a regional influencer with credibility, and a cultural bridge that speaks to both the Global South and the world's economic powers. In a time when multilateralism is losing breath, Indonesia could help reimagine it—not through ideology, but through integrity.
Five years remain until 2030. The window for meaningful global change is narrowing. And as traditional centers of influence turn inward, the world is looking elsewhere for guidance. It is not enough for Asia to rise economically. The question is whether it can rise with purpose. Whether it can offer not just speed, but direction. Not just hope, but action.
Leadership today is not about controlling others. It's about holding space—space for cooperation, for healing, for shared futures. Asia may not have sought this moment. But the moment has arrived nonetheless.
A vacuum of global guidance is dangerous. But it is also a rare opportunity—for a region that has long been underestimated to now step forward, not with triumphalism, but with vision.
Asia is rising. But the world is not waiting. The question, then, is no longer whether Asia will be ready to lead. It is whether Asia will be willing—willing to be the voice of direction in a world that is asking, more urgently than ever: Who still knows where we're going?
Setyo Budiantoro is sustainable development expert at The Prakarsa, MIT Sloan IDEAS fellow, advisory committee member of Fair Finance Asia and SDGs–ESG expert at Indonesian ESG Professional Association (IEPA).