Trump and Putin 'working towards ceasefire'

Australia Broadcast Center

19-05-2025

Sabra Lane: Good morning, welcome to AM. It's Tuesday the 20th of May. I'm Sabra Lane, coming to you from Nipaluna/Hobart.
Sabra Lane: The Reserve Bank boards in the middle of a two-day meeting. It'll announce a decision on interest rates this afternoon. Most economists think the bank will cut the official rate by a quarter of a percentage point. The rate's currently 4.1 per cent, but the big question is whether there'll be follow-up cuts later this year, now that the inflation rate is back within the bank's target band of two to three per cent. For more on this, I spoke earlier with our senior business correspondent, Peter Ryan. Peter, the inflation rate's come down from 2.8 per cent in December 2022. It's down now to 2.4 per cent. Is that enough for the Reserve Bank board to keep cutting interest rates after today's expected cut?
Peter Ryan: Well, Sabra, they're going to be pretty cautious. Money markets do see a 97 per cent chance of a cut to 3.85 per cent, the second rate cut this year. Some economists see two, maybe three more cuts later on in the coming months, but the urgency of that has dissipated now that Donald Trump's tariffs campaign has eased off with a 90-day pause in trade hostilities with China, so less of a need for a rate cut buffer here in Australia, given less global uncertainty. Also, the labour market is resilient to surprise 90,000 new jobs created in April and a jobless rate of 4.1 per cent, so a tight jobs market, good news, but that could end up stoking inflation. Warren Hogan, economic adviser to Judo Bank, says the RBA board will be cautious about signalling too many more cuts, given that inflation is still out there at a risk that might even put rate hikes back on the agenda if inflation makes an unwelcome comeback.
Warren Hogan: They've probably got one or two rate cuts up their sleeve, and of course they'll be worried about doing that because inflation might have come down, but it's still at the top of the target band. The employment markets are solid, people have got incomes, and of course there is still inflation out there. It might not be showing up as consumer price inflation right now, but certainly businesses are feeling the pressure on their costs. So I think today might see some pretty cautious guidance. We may have room for one more cut in the next few months, but at the same time I don't think the Reserve Bank's going to be sending a signal today that they're up for a few more. I think it's going to be a very balanced assessment of the outlook.
Sabra Lane: Warren Hogan, the economic advisor to Judo Bank there. Peter, what might be the trigger for another interest rate cut or two in the months ahead, and might the bank completely surprise everybody and hold today?
Peter Ryan: That's an outside possibility. Not many people are seeing a hold, but the RBA board will now be watching every piece of employment and inflation data, including Donald Trump-related developments from overseas. Official data for the June quarter will be key. Now, if inflation continues to slow or stays in the middle of the RBA's comfort zone, that could herald more relief for borrowers, though not for people relying on money earning interest in the bank. They'll be unhappy getting less. Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock will hold a media conference this afternoon after the rates decision, and as Warren Hogan mentioned, she's likely to be managing expectations about more rate cuts later this year.
Sabra Lane: Peter Ryan there.
Sabra Lane: A leading violence prevention organisation says Australia's education system needs an overhaul to tackle gender-based violence. The group, Our Watch, has put forward a blueprint, backed by 10 years of research, with suggestions on how schools should address a range of issues, from bullying to harassment and sexual violence. Bridget Fitzgerald reports.
Bridget Fitzgerald : Four years ago, former Sydney student Chanel Contos took to social media to ask her peers whether they'd been sexually assaulted during their school years. The responses sparked a national conversation about consent and what teenagers were seeing online.
Chanel Contos: Big tech companies know what keeps young boys online and knows that they can spend a lot of time online if they're angry, if they're outraged or if they're seeing sexually explicit content.
Bridget Fitzgerald : But rather than seeing things change for the better, the CEO of Teach Us Consent says in many ways it's gotten worse.
Chanel Contos: Casual misogyny in school seems to be something that is an increasing challenge.
Bridget Fitzgerald : And that disrespectful and sexist messaging is being borne out in classrooms around the country. Patty Kinnersly is the CEO of violence prevention organisation Our Watch.
Patty Kinnersly : We know that 40% of 16 and 17 year olds have experienced sexual harassment in a place of study and nearly a quarter of young women aged 18 to 24 have experienced image-based abuse.
Bridget Fitzgerald : She says while the problem is clear, so is the solution. Today Our Watch has released a blueprint for comprehensive, respectful relationships education in every school in the country.
Patty Kinnersly : The education system and schools are one of our best approaches to preventing violence against women and gendered violence before it occurs by building young people's skills and knowledge about consent and healthy relationships and rigid gender stereotypes so that they're as they're entering their first relationships, as they're going into the world of work, as they go out into the world and be adults and teachers and sports coaches themselves, they've actually built a strong foundation of what healthy relationships are.
Bridget Fitzgerald : Respectful relationships education covers everything from teaching students about communication skills and emotional regulation to how to deal with issues like consent or the harms of pornography. But it also involves training teachers how to respond if there are instances of bullying or harassment between students and encourages both staff and students to challenge gender stereotypes and promote equality.
Michael Jenkins : We know that early intervention research tells us that's our best way of changing behaviour but it's something that happens over time.
Bridget Fitzgerald : Michael Jenkins is the acting principal at Yarrunga Primary School in Wangaratta in northeast Victoria. He saw an immediate drop in schoolyard incidents of bullying and exclusion soon after his school adopted respectful relationships education in 2019.
Michael Jenkins : In term one of 2019 we had 114 incidences, in term four we had 70 and term one of 2020 we had 61 incidences. So we saw nearly a 50% drop off.
Bridget Fitzgerald : Respectful relationships education was a key recommendation of the 2016 Victorian Rural Commission into family violence. Our Watch wants a commitment to whole of school respectful relationships education in every state and territory.
Sabra Lane: Bridget Fitzgerald there.
Sabra Lane: The United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have had a two-hour phone call about Ukraine. Mr Trump says Russia and Ukraine will now immediately start negotiations on a ceasefire. The US President's been trying to broker peace in the region, which he'd previously claimed he could clinch in one day. North America correspondent Carrington Clarke's in Washington. Carrington, what do you know about the call?
Carrington Clarke : Well, both sides, the White House and the Kremlin, were trying to focus on the positives. US President Donald Trump took to social media to say that Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire and an end to their three-year-old war. Earlier, Russia's President Vladimir Putin had said efforts to end the war were generally on the right track and that Moscow was ready to work with Ukraine on a potential peace deal. But any hope of a major breakthrough here had been dashed, at least for the time being. There's no ceasefire agreement, just more talks about a potential ceasefire. Donald Trump instead focused on the potential for an improvement in the economic relationship between the US and Russia. And very importantly, there was no explicit threat of hitting Russia with further sanctions, as he himself had previously suggested might be on the table. So we're seeing again more carrot than stick from the US president. Donald Trump did say that the Vatican would be interested in hosting peace negotiations. And later at the White House Rose Garden, the US president was painting an optimistic picture of the conversation and the potential for the war to be brought to a close sometime soon.
Donald Trump: And I think some progress has been made. It's a terrible situation going on over there. So hopefully we we did something. We also spoke to the heads of most of the European nations and we're trying to get that whole thing wrapped up.
Sabra Lane: Carrington, what happens now?
Carrington Clarke : Well, there is no clear end in sight. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had two phone calls with the US president today. He's since said there could be a high level meeting between Ukraine, Russia, the United States, European Union countries and Britain as part of a push to end the war. He said it could be hosted at the Vatican, as suggested by President Trump or Turkey or Switzerland. But remember, Ukraine and Russia held direct negotiations in Istanbul last week at the behest of the United States. And those talks just really highlighted how far apart they are in their visions for ending the war. President Zelenskyy said he expected Europe to announce a strong new package of sanctions on Russia, though he didn't really elaborate exactly on how they'll function. He called on the United States to sanction Russia's banking and energy sectors to reduce the revenue for its military needs. But we have seen no indication that Donald Trump is willing to do so.
Sabra Lane: Carrington Clarke there in Washington.
Sabra Lane: Five years after the Brexit split happened, the United Kingdom and the European Union have finally reached a wide-ranging agreement on trade and security cooperation. While some of the details are still under negotiation, the British Prime Minister claims the deal is a win-win, but not everyone agrees. Syan Vallance reports from London.
Syan Vallance: It's being sold as the Great Reset.
Ursula von der Leyen : We're turning a page.
Sir Kier Starmer: A new era in our relationship.
Syan Vallance: Britain and the European Union have inked a wide-ranging deal covering fishing, trade, defence and energy. This is how European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sold it.
Ursula von der Leyen : This is the story of historical and natural partners standing side by side on the global stage.
Syan Vallance: Sentiments echoed by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Sir Kier Starmer: Britain is back on the world stage, working with our partners, doing deals that will grow our economy and putting more money in the pockets of working people.
Syan Vallance: The series of deals opens the door to deeper defence cooperation in the face of growing Russian aggression. It creates new energy networks and will make it easier to trade food across the Channel. The Prime Minister claims that will bring down bills, create jobs and protect Britain's borders.
Sir Kier Starmer: It gives us unprecedented access to the EU market, all while sticking to the red lines in our manifesto about not rejoining the single market, the customs union and no return to freedom of movement.
Syan Vallance: But some feel he's taken the EU's bait when it comes to fishing concessions. The new deal gives European fishermen access to British waters for 12 more years, a concession slammed by the leader of the opposition and conservative party, Kemi Badendoch.
Kemi Badendoch: It's going to be over a decade that we are giving away our fishing rights. That sells out so many coastal communities in the UK.
Syan Vallance: Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson went further on conservative media outlet GB News.
Boris Johnson: I think it's a complete and deliberate portrayal of Brexit. He's turning this country once again into the orange bull-chewing, leather trust gimp, if I've got the right word.
Syan Vallance: His former conservative colleague, now vice president of pro-EU organisation European Movement, Dominic Grieve, doesn't agree.
Dominic Grieve : Every trade deal involves some give and take. The problem is that for some people, including in the conservative party, Brexit is seen in such absolutist terms that reopening any part of it appears to be unacceptable.
Syan Vallance: He says the global context has changed dramatically since the vote in 2016.
Dominic Grieve : At a time when Trump's administration is showing increasing signs of no longer being reliable in terms of European defence, makes defence cooperation absolutely essential.
Syan Vallance: A recent YouGov poll showed a majority of Brits regret the Brexit vote, an opinion echoed on the streets of London today.
British man: I'm very sad we left the EU.
British man 2: The time before Brexit was better for Britain.
British woman: I'm just not quite seeing the benefit of it for us.
Syan Vallance: Many details are still being finalised, so there'll be plenty of negotiating and compromising to come.
Sabra Lane: Syan Vallance there in London.
Sabra Lane: The Federal Government says it's working to reform a controversial carbon offset scheme. The admission follows a court case involving one of the country's biggest energy retailers. Energy Australia yesterday apologised to 400,000 customers. It had used the offset program Climate Active to claim customers were making a positive impact on the environment while buying power derived by fossil fuels. There are calls now to shut down the scheme as Annie Guest reports.
Annie Guest : Inspired by school students' climate activism, Parents for Climate formed five years ago and in 2023 it took Energy Australia to court alleging misleading and deceptive behaviour. CEO Nick Seton has welcomed a settlement.
Nick Seton : We're absolutely chuffed with this result. It's a huge outcome for truth in marketing, truth in advertising and climate integrity.
Annie Guest : The electricity retailer Energy Australia has apologised to 400,000 customers it signed up to its Go Neutral carbon offset program that promised to offset emissions released due to their electricity and gas consumption. As part of its Federal Court settlement with Parents for Climate, Energy Australia released a statement acknowledging carbon offsets do not prevent or undo damage caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Nick Seton again.
Nick Seton : Trust matters more than anything else and parents are busy and they need to know that the information they're being provided is reliable and high integrity.
Annie Guest : Energy Australia has stopped offering the carbon offset program which it says it developed as part of its participation in the Federal Government's Climate Active certification scheme. In its statement the company said there is legitimate public concern about the efficacy of offset programs, including those offered as part of the Government's Climate Active program. That's a view shared by Stephen Long from the Australia Institute.
Stephen Long: Unfortunately for a long time Climate Active has functioned as state sponsored greenwashing. It really needs to be scrapped.
Annie Guest : A spokesperson for the Assistant Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Josh Wilson, says the Government recognises that Climate Active needs reform and that work is underway. That's backed by John Connor, the CEO of the Carbon Market Institute. He rejects calls to shut down the Government's Climate Active scheme.
John Connor : We think that would be a bad mistake and throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Annie Guest : John Connor says Climate Active provides credible tools for decarbonising construction and other industries. And he's optimistic the era of misusing carbon credits and offsets as a substitute for climate action is over.
John Connor : Where you've got to have fair dinkum decarbonisation plans but crediting and investment in climate solutions can go along with that. In the case of Climate Active it should be aligned to that decarbonisation, aligned to net zero, not just aligned to neutrality.
Annie Guest : Critics say there's still a big cloud over carbon offsets, the integrity of carbon offsets.
John Connor : Look there has been questions around the integrity of credits here and overseas. A lot of work has been happening over the last 18 months, two years to improve that and to have extra checks and balances.
Sabra Lane: That's John Connor from the Carbon Market Institute ending Annie Guest's report.
Sabra Lane: New workplace laws that put limits on bosses contacting workers after hours have not caused the conflict and chaos predicted by some business groups. A national survey led by the Australian HR Institute has found a majority of employers have reported an increase in productivity and worker engagement since laws came into effect last year. National Work reporter Bronwyn Herbert filed this report.
Bronwyn Herbert : South Australian finance worker Allie thought getting a mobile phone provided by her employer was a generous work perk, but the reality was something else.
Allie: It really keeps us connected at all times. For example, being able to contact customers outside of hours once we've logged off for the day or once we've left work for the day.
Bronwyn Herbert : She says bosses never exactly said they had to be available at all hours, but it quickly became the norm.
Allie: More of an unspoken rule. Everyone's trying to support the team the best they can and unfortunately the finance sector is severely understaffed. So even outside of working hours, you're always trying to do the best you can to support your workmates.
Bronwyn Herbert : Research released today shows right to disconnect laws have changed those workplace expectations for the better. A report from the Australian HR Institute, which represents HR professionals, surveyed 600 business decision makers on the reform. It found 58% of employers have found the new law has actually improved employee engagement and productivity. Sarah McCann-Bartlett is the Institute CEO.
Sarah McCann-Bartlett : Employers tell us that it has actually supported better work-life balance for employees and a reduction in stress for employees, which in turn has led to improved employee engagement and productivity in the organisation.
Bronwyn Herbert : The law came into effect in August last year for businesses that employ 15 or more workers. It will soon apply to all businesses. Gabrielle Golding from the University of Adelaide specialises in employment law.
Gabrielle Golding : This legislation hasn't opened the floodgates for legal claims. And I think one key reason for that is that it requires a conversation to happen at the workplace level first, before any application is brought to the commission.
Bronwyn Herbert : When the laws were brought in, the Australian Industry Group called it an unnecessary overreaction.
Innes Willox : Common sense has pretty much reigned here and employers are working it out with their employees to try to make the system work to prevent that conflict.
Bronwyn Herbert : Innes Willox is the Chief Executive of the AI Group.
Innes Willox : There is going to come a time when there will not be agreement and this will have to be arbitrated and decided upon and that will set the rules for everyone and that will make things harder and faster for everyone to deal with.
Bronwyn Herbert : Does it surprise you the findings that employee engagement and productivity has improved?
Innes Willox : It's hard to tell because there's a whole lot that goes into productivity. A lot of this sort of fits into the working from home scenario as well and we're trying to work through exactly how that works. What you're seeing now is people working in different ways, different hours and in different contexts and both employers and employees are having to deal with it.
Bronwyn Herbert : The right to disconnect law will expand to small businesses in August.
Sabra Lane. Bronwyn Herbert there. That's AM for today. Thanks for your company. I'm Sabra Lane.