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Moody's US downgrade may curb Trump tax cuts, but bond markets stay calm, for now

Moody's US downgrade may curb Trump tax cuts, but bond markets stay calm, for now

Economic Times19-05-2025

The recent downgrading of the US sovereign rating by Moody's is unlikely to cause any major tumult in bond markets - although it may rein in the Trump regime's ambitions for tax cuts.Moody's is the last of the three major rating agencies (along with S&P and Fitch) to downgrade US debt. But many funds have also relaxed rules that confined them to top-rated securities.Over time, however, weaker ratings will lead to higher borrowing costs for the US government, which has piled up a staggering $36 tn debt against an estimated $30 tn GDP in 2025. This places the US government debt-to-GDP ratio on the high side among G7 economies. Yet, it remains within acceptable limits.The outsized supply of US debt among similarly rated sovereigns contributes to market stability, although Washington is not immune to action by bond vigilantes . It also helps that the dollar's dominance in international trade faces no immediate threat from any rival currency.Export-surplus nations find it more convenient to park their reserves in debt denominated in the currency they need for trade. Japan, Britain and China hold the largest stock of US treasuries, with Britain often acting as a proxy for hedge funds.China's holdings are on a downward trajectory, even as the rest of the world continues buying in. But bond markets have reacted to Trump-tariffs, and Beijing has responded to the Moody's tut-tut by seeking remedial action from Washington.That response will come from US Congress, which is expected to dial down Trump's economic agenda - tariffs, immigration and tax cuts. Even without the downgrades, bond markets will remain watchful of US fiscal consolidation. The outlook will darken further if Trump pushes the US economy towards stagflation

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