Latest news with #Trump-tariffs
Economic Times
23-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
US economy defies slowdown fears as corporate earnings and travel surge
AP The last three weeks I spent in the US, I found myself making some observations: It's not the economy, stupid The first was that its economy is slowing down. It's actually thriving. Q1 corporate earnings for S&P 500 grew 12%, of which the Magnificent 7 minus Nvidia (which reports on May 28) reported an average 28% growth. The 493 rest grew 9%, exceeding consensus earnings estimates by 16%. Travel, too, is booming. Hotels in Jackson Hole and Yellowstone are full, despite tourist season starting 3 weeks later. Flights are packed to capacity. Inflation's raging The US is among the most expensive countries to holiday in. Any half-decent hotel in midtown Manhattan is north of $350-450 a night (breakfast is extra). A medium cappuccino that cost $5.40 in October 2023 now costs a dollar more at Peet's Coffee in JFK's Terminal 4. A medium latte costs a whopping $6.55, +21%. Labour shortages are showing JFK's Terminal 4 has 16 immigration booths. Only 7 had officers processing incoming passengers when I was there, leading to wait times of 1.5 hrs. This is not good for the gateway to the US for most international travellers, and one of the busiest airports in the world. Restaurants and hotels, too, are stretched with limited staff. Not cut rate yet A cross-section of fund managers and asset allocators I met believe that the probability of a US recession this year just got lower with the 90-day agreement on tariffs between the US and China. China remains a no-go for now. But that may change if relations improve. Most felt that given record low unemployment and high inflation, it's unlikely that the Fed will cut rates anytime soon. India-Pakistan, huh? US investors didn't seem particularly concerned about the latest India-Pakistan conflict. Media coverage of the event was overshadowed by Trump-tariffs, his visit to West Asia and other domestic issues. In the four India-Pakistan conflicts since 2000, Nifty50 saw a median drawdown of 4% within the first 10 trading days, and recovered within a month from the event day. In fact, markets rallied 34% during the 3-month Kargil War (May-July 1999).Whether Washington and Average Joe and Jane like it or not, 'Made in China' still dominates supermarket shelves. Unlike the price of coffee, price of garments haven't been raised as yet. That said, last week, Walmart threatened to increase prices on certain goods, much to the chagrin of the White House. I found 2/3rd of Costco's private labels were made in China, followed by Mexico, Honduras, India, Cambodia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Peru and Kenya. So, how much would higher US tariffs impact India? Last year, India's merchandise exports to the US were only $80 bn (18% of India's total goods exports, a mere 2% of GDP). India's trade surplus with the US was $46 bn, significantly lower than China's $292 bn and Vietnam's $123 bn. That said, this is an opportunity for India to gain export market share from China, Vietnam and Mexico by playing the tariff arbitrage in industries ranging from footwear to garments to electronics. Fresh on the success of Apple (1 in every 5 iPhones sold globally is made in India today), GoI is focused on bringing more overseas manufacturing into ownership of the US equity market is 18%, a record high. But money is now flowing out of the US and going into markets like the EU, and some to EMs. Investors think India seems to have gone from 'very expensive' to 'expensive'. It's unlikely to go to 'moderately expensive' anytime soon, given unabated strong domestic flows for the past 48 months (net inflows of $60 bn in 2024, plus another $27.8 bn so far this year).Foreigners who had net sold as much as $14 bn upto the last week of March have returned with over $4 bn in the past six weeks, taking India's market cap to $5.2 tn. Things remain positive on India, given earnings growth, strong infrastructure build- out, return of foreign capital and huge export opportunity. The writer is managing partner,Nepean Capital (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of Elevate your knowledge and leadership skills at a cost cheaper than your daily tea. What pizzas are Indians eating? The clue lies with India's largest QSR. Why high gold prices are making both banks and their borrowers smile How does IndusInd's 'fraud' tag affect its future? RBI has cut repo rates twice in 3 months. But that isn't enough to boost the economy! As India steps up commercial shipbuilding, it needs a supply chain boost Stock Radar: RITES stock breaks out from Ascending Triangle pattern; time to buy? Brokerage Radar: Morgan Stanley downgrades IndusInd Bank; BNP Paribas views DOMS Industries as top consumer sector pick Corrections come and go; focus on business and its growth: 6 large-caps from different sectors with upside potential of up to 52% Weekly Top Picks: These stocks scored 10 on 10 on Stock Reports Plus
Economic Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Moody's US downgrade may curb Trump tax cuts, but bond markets stay calm, for now
The recent downgrading of the US sovereign rating by Moody's is unlikely to cause any major tumult in bond markets - although it may rein in the Trump regime's ambitions for tax is the last of the three major rating agencies (along with S&P and Fitch) to downgrade US debt. But many funds have also relaxed rules that confined them to top-rated time, however, weaker ratings will lead to higher borrowing costs for the US government, which has piled up a staggering $36 tn debt against an estimated $30 tn GDP in 2025. This places the US government debt-to-GDP ratio on the high side among G7 economies. Yet, it remains within acceptable outsized supply of US debt among similarly rated sovereigns contributes to market stability, although Washington is not immune to action by bond vigilantes . It also helps that the dollar's dominance in international trade faces no immediate threat from any rival nations find it more convenient to park their reserves in debt denominated in the currency they need for trade. Japan, Britain and China hold the largest stock of US treasuries, with Britain often acting as a proxy for hedge holdings are on a downward trajectory, even as the rest of the world continues buying in. But bond markets have reacted to Trump-tariffs, and Beijing has responded to the Moody's tut-tut by seeking remedial action from response will come from US Congress, which is expected to dial down Trump's economic agenda - tariffs, immigration and tax cuts. Even without the downgrades, bond markets will remain watchful of US fiscal consolidation. The outlook will darken further if Trump pushes the US economy towards stagflation
Time of India
19-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Moody's US downgrade may curb Trump tax cuts, but bond markets stay calm, for now
The recent downgrading of the US sovereign rating by Moody's is unlikely to cause any major tumult in bond markets - although it may rein in the Trump regime's ambitions for tax cuts. Moody's is the last of the three major rating agencies (along with S&P and Fitch) to downgrade US debt. But many funds have also relaxed rules that confined them to top-rated securities. Over time, however, weaker ratings will lead to higher borrowing costs for the US government, which has piled up a staggering $36 tn debt against an estimated $30 tn GDP in 2025. This places the US government debt-to-GDP ratio on the high side among G7 economies. Yet, it remains within acceptable limits. The outsized supply of US debt among similarly rated sovereigns contributes to market stability, although Washington is not immune to action by bond vigilantes . It also helps that the dollar's dominance in international trade faces no immediate threat from any rival currency. Export-surplus nations find it more convenient to park their reserves in debt denominated in the currency they need for trade. Japan, Britain and China hold the largest stock of US treasuries, with Britain often acting as a proxy for hedge funds. China's holdings are on a downward trajectory, even as the rest of the world continues buying in. But bond markets have reacted to Trump-tariffs, and Beijing has responded to the Moody's tut-tut by seeking remedial action from Washington. That response will come from US Congress, which is expected to dial down Trump's economic agenda - tariffs, immigration and tax cuts. Even without the downgrades, bond markets will remain watchful of US fiscal consolidation. The outlook will darken further if Trump pushes the US economy towards stagflation .
Economic Times
03-05-2025
- Sport
- Economic Times
Did that Suryavanshi Bachha just destroy our notion of adolescence?
Live Events Just when we were overcoming the rollercoaster of Trump-tariffs, wars in Europe and West Asia, and getting rational about India's response to the Pahalgam terrorist attacks, we have a 14-year-old hitting 101 in 35 balls in only his third IPL game. On Monday, Rajasthan Royals opener Vaibhav Suryavanshi smashed 11 sixes against Gujarat Titans on his way to scoring the second fastest century - and fastest century by an Indian - in IPL history in Jaipur. It seems that societal setbacks come camouflaged in strike rates of 289 these are a few reasons why a juvenile, generating 94% of his runs from boundaries, represents a setback for humankind:· Bye-bye innocence With his single innings, India's teens have just lost their innocence. 'Ab chauda saal ke bachhe bachhe nahi rahe' (14-year-old kids are now no longer kids) is a refrain doing the rounds this week.· Greater expectations After Suryavandhi's innings, the world will expect a 10-yr-old to climb Everest, a 9-yr-old to run the mile in less than 4 mins, and a 13-year-old to bring India an Olympic gold.· Brat race For most children, whose parents or guardians watched/read/heard about the innings, the rat race - school-coaching-gym-studies, repeat - will begin at 6.· Changing diets Diets for pregnant mothers will include 'Watching cricket for 2 hours each day'. More children will be named after cricketers. Toddlers will be monkey-trained to answer, 'IPL cricketer,' when anyone asks 'Beta, bade hokar kya banoge?' (Son, what will you be when you grow up?)· Talent hunters Talent scouts, pretending to be parents, will snoop around schools scrutinising score sheets, sidling up to umpires, and lurking behind the nets.· Coaches galore A 9-yr-old will attend fielding coaching on Friday, batting coaching on Saturday, bowling coaching on Sunday, mental coaching on Monday, and captaincy mentorship on Tuesday.· Politickle capital Some party secretary will invite the teenager to an election rally, make him sit in a front seat, fix an oversized badge on his chest, and ask him to wave to the crowd.· School's out Most school principals will reconcile to a dip in school attendance and academic performance in Classes 7-8 - 'Time to select between taking cricket as a career, or a conventional naukri'.· National setback Engineering giants like L&T can keep complaining about a dearth of engineers. After this VS innings, the paucity could only get worse.· Sacrificial lambs There could be a spate of resignations by parents in their 40s to ferry their children to coaching, practice and matches, justified by the classic, 'We saw the talent early, and made a family sacrifice.'· Age inflation 14 will be the new 18. Bryan Adams will have to rewrite his classic as '14 Til I Die'.· Minor major change There will soon be a demand that 15-year-olds be allowed to vote, drive, and marry. Suryavanshi's one innings has made India seem so 1960 again.· Retirement adjustments Burnout could happen after teenagers have made ₹50 cr by 19, put the dosh in debt mutual funds, and have decided to live happily ever after.· Chief guest fever Suryavanshi will be invited to inaugurate Ram Leelas and Durga Pujas, make a statement on women's empowerment, become an inner-wear brand ambassador, and endorse mineral water carrying the same name as a liquor brand.· Posterboy for postermen Some bureaucrat will highlight this innings as a success of Modi sarkar's child education programmes helping build a new India.· Success matlab... After this one innings, the life mission of an entire country will be to play IPL, hit sixes, and be mentioned in headlines. An ordinary life will look way ordinarier.· Comparative studies Everyone will be compared with the 'na-baaligh' 14-year-old, including the great Tendulkar - 'Was Sachin as good at 15 as Vaibhav is at 14?'· Bio-gradable An official biography and a biopic should already be in the works.P.S. Suryavanshi's duck in his next match against Mumbai Indians on Thursday, thankfully, eased some pressure on teens across the world. Let's see what he does against KKR writer is CEO, Trisys
Time of India
21-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Indo-US Tech Alliance: A strategic pivot amid the US-China tech cold war
The unfolding US-China tech war is likely to endure the barrage of Trump-tariffs. In the long run, it may even be defining - one from which India can significantly gain if leveraged effectively. The tech deal in India's proposed trade deal is the trump card on the table that must be seen outside the confines of tariffs and duties. The strategic value of a well-curated tech deal with the US can be gauged from the fact that the first agreement that China signed within a year of establishing formal diplomatic relations with the US in 1979 was the Science and Technology Agreement (STA). This pact not only provided China with pathways to hi-tech collaboration across sectors in the US, but also gave access to cutting-edge research in American universities and institutions. Chinese scientific capital was built on this base. It has allowed Beijing the political heft to back itself in a tech war with the US today. Semiconductors are at the heart of this war, especially after China accessed high-end US chips to develop DeepSeek, thus narrowing the gap on AI dominance. It showed, among other things, that China, with the help of US companies, could find ways around Biden's export curbs on semiconductors. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Crossout: New Apocalyptic MMO Crossout Play Now Undo Only last week, the US took three important decisions: US Department of Commerce initiated a national security investigation on the effects of importing semiconductors. Live Events Nvidia was told by Washington that it needs a licence to sell H20 chips, used by DeepSeek, to China, as well as for other chips that can achieve similar bandwidth, citing possible diversion to a supercomputer. AMD was similarly told that its MI308 accelerators will be ineligible for export to China without licence. For Nvidia, this is expected to impact committed orders worth $5.5 bn, while AMD would take an immediate hit of $800 mn. The problem was that Nvidia had developed H20 chips specifically for Chinese markets after the Biden administration had placed curbs on its superior H100 series. The H20 series was modified. But it wasn't that inferior. A Congressional committee took this up for investigation, and also submitted its report last week. It has plotted DeepSeek's complex ownership chart, and founder Liang Wenfeng's links with the Chinese state. It also recorded that DeepSeek relies on China Mobile for its back-end infra. In the US, China Mobile was designated as 'Chinese military company', banned by Federal Communications Commission in 2019, delisted from NYSE in 2021, and designated a national security threat in 2022. The Congressional report has flagged this off as a key security consideration, recommending expansion of export controls of high-value chips to China. Despite these revelations, the US decoupling from China on technology is not going to be easy. In December 2024, for instance, it renewed a reworked STA with China, which kept out critical and emerging technologies from the ambit of the agreement. It showed that while Washington is paring down its cooperation and building more guard rails, unknotting of a deeply integrated relationship will take time. Can India help the US accelerate this process? The answer lies in how soon India and the US can progress the TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilising Strategic Technology) initiative announced during Narendra Modi 's US visit in February. The joint statement sets out an ambitious goal of putting together an agreed roadmap for accelerating AI infrastructure by end-2025. In fact, it's important the proposed Indo-US BTA be seen in conjunction with TRUST. Progress on the latter is likely to drive the former in the long run, a fact India must bear in mind as it hosts J D Vance this week. Mentored by Peter Thiel, Vance is Trump's key interlocutor with America's tech world, which is battling to make the strategic MAGA adjustment on China. From an Indian standpoint, opportunity boils to three specific buckets: access, production and human capital. Biden's January 13 AI Export Control Order, one of the few yet to be overturned, has exempted 18 countries from limits put on importing advanced GPUs. India is the only Quad country not on the list of 18 - probably because it did not align itself to the Russia-specific common high-priority list (CHPL) of export items drawn up by the Biden administration along with key allies to deny Moscow access to 'sensitive' items. For starters, India can be put on the exempted list given Washington's changed outlook on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Unfettered access to high-value chips, combined with investment, could have a positive impact across sectors in India, especially electronics. The next big plus would be on expanding research lab infra across India, and removing impediments to movement, training and deployment of human capital through a tech partnership anchored in strategic trust. The production/manufacturing aspect will take time to evolve in India. But partnerships on jointly securing supply chains, as well as access to critical and rare earth minerals, are trust-based conversations, which could help translate this opportunity into real gains. Significance of an Indo-US tech deal - not just a trade deal - must be underlined, especially when a US-China tech war is likely to outlast the trade war. China, at best, can be a tech provider to India, not an enabler or a trusted partner.
