Indo-US Tech Alliance: A strategic pivot amid the US-China tech cold war
The unfolding
US-China tech war
is likely to endure the barrage of Trump-tariffs. In the long run, it may even be defining - one from which
India
can significantly gain if leveraged effectively. The tech deal in India's proposed trade deal is the trump card on the table that must be seen outside the confines of tariffs and duties. The strategic value of a well-curated tech deal with the US can be gauged from the fact that the first agreement that China signed within a year of establishing formal diplomatic relations with the US in 1979 was the Science and Technology Agreement (STA).
This pact not only provided China with pathways to hi-tech collaboration across sectors in the US, but also gave access to cutting-edge research in American universities and institutions. Chinese scientific capital was built on this base. It has allowed Beijing the political heft to back itself in a tech war with the US today.
Semiconductors are at the heart of this war, especially after China accessed high-end US chips to develop DeepSeek, thus narrowing the gap on AI dominance. It showed, among other things, that China, with the help of US companies, could find ways around Biden's export curbs on semiconductors.
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Only last week, the US took three important decisions:
US Department of Commerce
initiated a national security investigation on the effects of importing semiconductors.
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Nvidia was told by Washington that it needs a licence to sell H20 chips, used by DeepSeek, to China, as well as for other chips that can achieve similar bandwidth, citing possible diversion to a supercomputer.
AMD was similarly told that its MI308 accelerators will be ineligible for export to China without licence.
For Nvidia, this is expected to impact committed orders worth $5.5 bn, while AMD would take an immediate hit of $800 mn. The problem was that Nvidia had developed H20 chips specifically for Chinese markets after the
Biden administration
had placed curbs on its superior H100 series.
The H20 series was modified. But it wasn't that inferior. A Congressional committee took this up for investigation, and also submitted its report last week. It has plotted DeepSeek's complex ownership chart, and founder Liang Wenfeng's links with the Chinese state. It also recorded that DeepSeek relies on China Mobile for its back-end infra. In the US, China Mobile was designated as 'Chinese military company', banned by Federal Communications Commission in 2019, delisted from NYSE in 2021, and designated a national security threat in 2022. The Congressional report has flagged this off as a key security consideration, recommending expansion of export controls of high-value chips to China.
Despite these revelations, the US decoupling from China on technology is not going to be easy. In December 2024, for instance, it renewed a reworked STA with China, which kept out critical and emerging technologies from the ambit of the agreement. It showed that while Washington is paring down its cooperation and building more guard rails, unknotting of a deeply integrated relationship will take time.
Can India help the US accelerate this process? The answer lies in how soon India and the US can progress the TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilising Strategic Technology) initiative announced during
Narendra Modi
's US visit in February. The joint statement sets out an ambitious goal of putting together an agreed roadmap for accelerating
AI infrastructure
by end-2025.
In fact, it's important the proposed Indo-US BTA be seen in conjunction with TRUST. Progress on the latter is likely to drive the former in the long run, a fact India must bear in mind as it hosts J D Vance this week. Mentored by Peter Thiel, Vance is Trump's key interlocutor with America's tech world, which is battling to make the strategic MAGA adjustment on China.
From an Indian standpoint, opportunity boils to three specific buckets: access, production and human capital. Biden's January 13 AI Export Control Order, one of the few yet to be overturned, has exempted 18 countries from limits put on importing advanced GPUs. India is the only Quad country not on the list of 18 - probably because it did not align itself to the Russia-specific common high-priority list (CHPL) of export items drawn up by the Biden administration along with key allies to deny Moscow access to 'sensitive' items.
For starters, India can be put on the exempted list given Washington's changed outlook on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Unfettered access to high-value chips, combined with investment, could have a positive impact across sectors in India, especially electronics. The next big plus would be on expanding research lab infra across India, and removing impediments to movement, training and deployment of human capital through a tech partnership anchored in strategic trust.
The production/manufacturing aspect will take time to evolve in India. But partnerships on jointly securing supply chains, as well as access to critical and rare earth minerals, are trust-based conversations, which could help translate this opportunity into real gains.
Significance of an Indo-US tech deal - not just a trade deal - must be underlined, especially when a US-China tech war is likely to outlast the trade war. China, at best, can be a tech provider to India, not an enabler or a trusted partner.
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