Hurricane Erin could batter Britain: Remnants of 160mph storm may hit the UK over Bank Holiday after powering across the Atlantic
Meteorologists are monitoring how the system could strengthen the jet stream and impact UK weather after the bank holiday weekend as it sweeps across the Atlantic.
The Met Office said Erin underwent a 'remarkable and very fast transition' from a tropical storm to a 160mph Category 5 'monster' in 24 hours last weekend.
This morning it was a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of about 100mph, located about 500 miles off the Outer Banks islands of North Carolina.
The system is forecast to remain out in the ocean, before the remnants could be seen in Britain by late Sunday or early Monday - bringing big waves to coastal areas.
Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern said it 'does look a little bit more likely that autumn will make an early appearance' at some point next week, with an 'increased likelihood of low pressure, showers, spells of rain and increased wind as well'.
Wet conditions in the final week of summer would end a period of dry weather for much of the country, with the UK on track for one of its hottest summers on record.
But further warm and settled weather will continue into the bank holiday weekend, with highs of between 22C and 24C every day in London until at least next Tuesday.
The Met Office expects high pressure will continue to dominate for the rest of this week, although showers are possible in western areas at the end of the weekend.
Mr McGivern said Erin underwent a 'remarkable and very fast transition from a tropical storm to a Category 5 monster in just 24 hours at the start of the weekend.'
He said the storm is expected to move north and then curve north-eastwards into the North Atlantic over the next few days and into the weekend.
By Sunday it will have technically become an ex-hurricane, and Mr McGivern clarified that 'no hurricane could hit the UK or will hit the UK in the near future'.
He said this was 'because the seas surrounding the UK are simply not warm enough -they're some 10 degrees lower than you'd expect to sustain an actual hurricane'.
Looking at how Erin will affect the UK's weather, Mr McGivern continued: 'It could bring its remnants to the UK at some point, but it could well stay away.
'However, the more important question is actually how will it strengthen the jet stream and how will that jet stream bring us other lows that are not necessarily Erin?
'Either way, whether or not it hits us as an ex-hurricane, it's still likely to bring us a big change to more unsettled weather for next week.'
Reading Festival begin to arrive for early bird camping on a grey and overcast morning today
Reading festivalgoers arrive with their camping equipment at the site in Berkshire today
He added that there were many variables involved, such as 'how an ex-hurricane is going to interact with a jet stream and how the jet stream is going interact with an ex-hurricane'.
Mr McGivern said: 'What looks most likely is that that ex-hurricane fuels the jet stream. The jet stream brings a big change to the UK's weather into next week, brings an increased likelihood of low pressure, showers, spells of rain and increased wind.
'Of course, we need the rain, but it might not be welcome for people who want to enjoy the last week of the summer holidays. It does look a little bit more likely that autumn will make an early appearance.'
The summer has been marked by persistent warm temperatures even outside the four heatwaves which have hit the country, with June and July both seeing well above-average conditions.
With two weeks to go until the end of the meteorological summer, conditions could still shift.
But the season's overall warmth and consistently above-average temperatures mean it could rank among the UK's warmest in records dating back to 1884.
Met Office meteorologist Marco Petagna said: 'Any remnants of the hurricane aren't expected to have an impact on the UK until early next week, there's uncertainty how it will play out.
'From late on Sunday the uncertainty starts to kick in. There's a risk of some rain developing, a potential that then things will turn increasingly unsettled.
'It's likely becoming more unsettled early to middle part of next week, at this stage we can't be too firm on the details.'
Provisional figures from the Met Office show that the UK's average temperature from June 1 to August 17 stands at 16.2C, some 1.6C above the average temperature.
In North Carolina, evacuations have been ordered along the barrier islands of the Outer Banks where a storm surge from Erin could swamp roads with waves of 15ft.
New York City closed its beaches to swimming today, while several New Jersey beaches also will be temporarily off-limits. Some towns in Delaware have cut off ocean access and Nantucket Island in Massachusetts could see waves of 10ft.
Yesterday, Erin lashed the Turks and Caicos Islands, where government services were suspended and residents were ordered to stay home, along with parts of the Bahamas before its expected turn toward Bermuda.
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