3 major fights on the right to watch in Trump's next 6 months
Disputes on the right that had been simmering on the backburner as Republicans rallied around President Trump during his first six months in office are poised to roar to a boil in the second half of the year.
Now that Republicans have pushed through the 'One Big, Beautiful Bill' of Trump's tax cut and spending priorities, there is more space to hash out other intra-party debates. Trump's approval ratings seem to be reaching a summer slump, creating an opening for criticism. And the fissure over Jeffrey Epstein disclosures has exposed a slip in Trump's grip on the GOP.
Here's what I'm watching:
1. Tariff hikes versus free trade instincts
Republicans are bracing for Trump's threatened tariff hikes on most countries — which he had paused for several months — ahead of another critical deadline on August 1.
Many Republicans have sat back and given Trump, who they regularly laud as a master negotiator, room to strike deals with trading partners. But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on CBS News's 'Face the Nation' over the weekend that the Aug. 1 deadline is firm.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) recently told The Hill that the global and American economies are in a 'fragile spot right now' given the uncertainty over tariffs.
'We're in uncharted territory. I do not know the impact the tariffs are going to have on the American economy or the global economy. I don't, and nobody else does either,' Kennedy said.
Republicans have already started to voice some concerns about the looming tariffs amid a lack of international deals.
For instance, two dozen Republicans led by Rep. Ron Estes (R-Kansas) sent a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last month asking the U.S. to maintain its zero tariff policy on civil aircraft, as Politico reported.
If the tariffs get more real with little in terms of deals, quiet concerns are likely to grow much louder.
2. Posture toward Russia and Ukraine
The president's patience with Vladimir Putin is wearing visibly thin as the Russian president resists any deal that would bring an end to his country's invasion of Ukraine — resulting in Trump growing more open to taking a tougher stance toward Russia.
Trump warned on July 14 that if Russia did not agree to a deal within 50 days, he would pursue 'very severe tariffs' on Russia — and Republicans in support of a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill have said that a vote on the matter will come as soon as Trump gives the green light.
But there is a notable contingent of Republicans who are still skeptical of being involved at all in the Russia-Ukraine clash. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) criticized Trump's plan to speed up weapons deliveries to NATO countries that would then send those arms to Ukraine in a New York Times interview last week.
'I said it on every rally stage: 'No more money to Ukraine. We want peace,'' Greene said.
And seventy-six House Republicans voted in favor of an amendment from Greene last week to bar funds in their annual defense appropriations bill from being used for assistance to Ukraine. Even though the amendment failed and less than a majority of the House GOP supported it, it's still a sizable chunk that could complicate any Trump efforts to support Kyiv.
3. Government funding clashes
It took some major pushes from Trump to get congressional Republicans all on board with his 'One Big Beautiful Bill' due in part to concerns from deficit hawks — and those disputes and dynamics are only going to get more complicated as Congress starts to address regular government funding ahead of the Sept. 30 funding deadline.
Shutdown fears are already growing, my colleague Alex Bolton reports, since Republicans will need cooperation from Democrats in the Senate to keep the government — which is still operating at levels first approved under former President Biden — open.
It typically takes a more moderate deal on appropriations to clear the Senate's 60-vote threshold. And this time, Democrats furious about the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' and package that clawed back funds already allocated to public broadcasting and foreign aid are eyeing taking a more aggressive stance.
Further complicating that is government funding furor from deficit hawks on the GOP side who were disappointed by the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' not doing more to cut spending.
But with little work done on regular government funding bills ahead of the August recess, a stopgap measure is looking more and more likely — a proposal that will infuriate deficit hawks.
Welcome to The Movement, a weekly newsletter looking at the influences and debates on the right in Washington. I'm Emily Brooks, House leadership reporter at The Hill. Tell me what's on your radar: ebrooks@thehill.com. Follow me on X: @emilybrooksnews.
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THE LEGACY OF ED FEULNER
Heritage Foundation founder Edward Feulner died this weekend at 83 years old — leaving behind a legacy of shaping influential institutions in the conservative movement as much as anyone from the Reagan era to the Trump era.
It wasn't just Heritage that had Feulner's fingerprints. He played a role in founding and was executive director of the Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in the House. He was involved in a number of other organizations that still thrive and shape conservative politics and policy today.
Former Vice President Mike Pence wrote in the Wall Street Journal that Feulner encouraged him to lead the Indiana Policy Review Foundation, as part of an effort to support state-based conservative think tanks that would eventually turn into the State Policy Network.
Current Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts and Board of Trustees Chairman Barb Van Andel-Gaby talked about Feulner's movement-building approach in a statement: 'Whether he was bringing together the various corners of the conservative movement at meetings of the Philadelphia Society, or launching what is now the Heritage Strategy Forum, Ed championed a bold, 'big-tent conservatism.' He believed in addition, not subtraction. Unity, not uniformity.'
Without a doubt, Feulner was a giant of the conservative movement — and one of its most important builders.
'The young Republicans in Washington may not know it, but they are spending down the intellectual capital stockpiled by Ed Feulner and his generation,' the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board wrote.
WAVE OF FILE DROPS — BUT NOT THOSE ONES
Could it be that the conservative clamor to release more disclosures on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein is dying down after releases from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on other, unrelated sagas that have defined the MAGA hunger for retribution?
Gabbard's ODNI on Friday published a press release saying there was 'overwhelming evidence' that former President Obama and his officials 'manufactured and politicized intelligence' to launch a 'years-long coup against President Trump' in relation to Trump's suspected ties to Russia. (More in NPR.)
That coincided with a narrative shift from the types of MAGA influencers who had centered on anger over lack of Epstein disclosures for weeks. Now, they're calling to arrest Obama administration officials — and even the former president himself.
But that wasn't all.
Attorney General Pam Bondi on Monday released more information on the investigation into former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa).Grassley subsequently released the 'Clinton Annex' appendix to the Justice Department inspector general report on the Clinton investigation.
'I appreciate their ongoing commitment to transparency and strongly urge them to continue to fully review this matter, including its national security impact,' Grassley said in a statement.
And for good measure, in a coordinated effort across agencies, the Trump administration released a tranche of files on the civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. — despite objections from his family.
Is it enough to calm the right-wing outrage about lack of transparency in the Epstein matter? Stay tuned — and maybe look to the House floor for any residual Epstein drama. While Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said he has no plans to bring a vote a on a non-binding resolution in support of the Epstein files release before August recess, House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) told my colleague Mychael Schnell of an Epstein vote: 'It's still a long way to go until recess… I think one's gonna happen before August recess.'
ON MY CALENDAR
Wednesday, July 23: CPAC's Center for Combating Human Trafficking hosts an International Summit Against Human Trafficking on Capitol Hill in Cannon House Office Building, 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Attorney General Pam Bondi is a confirmed speaker.
Wednesday, July 23: FDA Commissioner Marty Makary speaks for a lecture hosted by The Fund For American Studies and the office of Sen. Rand Paul, 12:30 p.m., Hart Senate Office Building.
Thursday, July 24: Libertarianism vs. Conservatism intern debate, a tradition with interns from the Cato Institute and Heritage Foundation. 5:30 p.m., in person and live streamed.
Monday, July 28: Unleash Prosperity hosts a conversation with Stephen Moore and Virginia Gov. Glenn Younkin (R) for an event launching a 'Vote with your feet' website tracking movement of people and money across the states. 5-7 p.m. at the Capitol Hill Club.
THREE MORE THINGS
Ruthless, the GOP operative podcast hosted by Josh Holmes, Michael Duncan, John Ashbrook and the man most known by his internet personality ' Comfortably Smug,' struck a business and editorial licensing deal with Fox News, Axios reported.
Did you know that Lara Trump, co-chair of the Republican National Committee and daughter-in-law of the president, has a musical streak? She released a new song today, The Telegraph's Rob Crilly scooped, called Eyes of God.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) opened our conversion at the Hill Nation last week summit with a zinger. I asked how post-congressional life was treating him. McCarthy said, 'Fabulous. We don't have Matt Gaetz anymore.' The former congressman and McCarthy antagonist responded on X: 'This is so sad, Kevin. Get help. Move on. You don't have to always be thinking about me.'
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It leads actual earnings estimates, and as you can see, we are currently experiencing one of the strongest V-shaped recoveries in history, rivaling the COVID rebound in 2020, the last time we were so out of consensus on the market. Many market participants do not appreciate how strong this very fundamental driver has been over the past several months, which helps to not only justify the rally to date, but also why we remain bullish on the next 6-12 months." Ben Snider, senior equity strategist, Goldman Sachs "Despite the recent new record highs notched by the S&P 500, investor positioning data show no sign of exuberance. The GS Equity Sentiment Indicator combines nine measures of positioning in US stocks across investor groups, including hedge funds, mutual funds, and retail investors. Today, the indicator stands at a 0, reflecting a neutral stance in US stocks on average across investors. While valuation multiples sit at elevated levels relative to history, constrained positioning indicates room for the recent equity rally to continue." Binky Chadha, chief global strategist, Deutsche Bank "While equity markets have recovered completely from their Liberation Day sell-off, equity positioning is only back up to neutral. Equity positioning tends to align with earnings growth but is currently still below what we expect for Q2 and we look for a typical earnings season rally. Both the company analyst consensus and DB forecasts see earnings growth dipping in Q3 as the full impact of tariffs hit, before picking up again. Our outlook out to year-end sees a rise in equity positioning as one of the drivers of further upside for equity prices." Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy, Barclays "Heading into 2Q25 earnings season, Big Tech is once again trading at ~29x [forward earnings]. ... While this seems high at first take, the group is still trading ~2 turns below where it started the year because Big Tech is one of the only segments of the S&P 500 where an improved YTD earnings outlook is available at a better YTD price. US equity upside has broadened in 2025 — the percentage of SPX constituents beating the index has risen to the highest level in about 2 years — but most of these gains have been fueled by multiple expansion. Big Tech is the rare exception. ... With [the second quarter of 2025] poised to be the first quarter to see material impacts from incremental tariffs, Big Tech retains an outsized role in keeping overall SPX performance healthy, and we believe the group is well-positioned to do so." Read more: Live coverage of corporate earnings Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist, Stifel "While it's absolutely true Big Tech is much more profitable than the late-1990s Bubble, … the over-valuation is the same." Tom Lee, head of research, Fundstrat "Over the past five years, the market has survived six black swan events. If this were a company that had survived six near-extinction events and continued to prosper, its stock would be assigned a higher multiple. However, the equal-weight S&P 500 P/E has actually declined from 17.6x (pre-COVID) to the current 16.9x. If the market is truly indestructible, there's still plenty of room for multiples to rise." Savita Subramanian and Jill Carey Hall, BofA Securities equity and quant strategy "While the S&P 500 screens as statistically expensive on most valuation metrics we track, comparing today's multiple to prior cycles is apples to oranges, in our view, given the mix shift within the index. The S&P 500 has shifted from low-margin, asset- and labor-intensive industries (70% manufacturing in 1980) to high-margin, innovation-oriented industries (50% of the index today)." Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer, Truist "A key question for the second half of the year is whether market leadership will broaden. Small- and mid-cap stocks remain well below prior highs, partly due to weaker earnings. A shift would likely require both economic improvement and broader earnings growth. Until trends improve, we continue to favor large-cap equities with a growth tilt." Citi equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert "This reporting season is critical for Small/Mid Cap and more cyclical sectors as earnings growth has been paltry for more than two years. However, Wall Street analysts have continued to model an uplift in fundamentals only to be continually disappointed. Good results this quarter and conviction in forward estimates are critical for investors to believe the return to positive EPS growth is near and for US stock market performance to broaden." Richard Bernstein, CEO, Richard Bernstein Advisors "Several points are worth noting in this chart: Nasdaq surges ahead of Dow Jones Utilities only during more speculative periods and bubbles. Utilities have underperformed Nasdaq by less than 65bp/year, even when including the current speculative Magnificent 7/AI period. Because such a large proportion of return comes from dividends, Utilities have achieved their returns with considerably lower volatility and beta. The DJ Utilities Index has a beta of only 0.5 to the Nasdaq during the 50+ year period, implying its risk-adjusted returns are superior to those of Nasdaq." Max Grinacoff, head of US equity derivatives, UBS "Valuations continue to price in AI-led 'profitability exceptionalism.' The US [equity market] is clearly 'expensive' to bonds unless growth expectations are met." Callie Cox, chief markets strategist, Ritholtz Wealth Management "Right now, investors are giving AI the benefit of the doubt. Tech may be the most globally exposed sector of the S&P 500, yet people are willing to pay above-average multiples for the piece of what's shaping up to be a compelling story for the next decade. "The issue here is that the AI trade works until it doesn't ... We're not in a recession yet, but tariffs and a host of other pressures could cause the job market to buckle. Tech's expectations are exceptionally high, and reality may involve a steep drop in market value. This is why portfolio balance is so important — you're implicitly correcting the big imbalance between stock performances for your own investments." Nicole Inui, head of US and Latin America strategy, HSBC "Market breadth (% of companies outperforming the S&P 500) is getting narrower and hitting low points more often. This pattern of concentrated market performance was also seen in the late nineties and early 2000s. Back then, the S&P 500 tended to correct following points of narrow market breadth over the near term. However, in recent years, the market has rallied even as market breadth narrows, [a] testament to the quality of the large-cap stocks leading the rally." Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist, Charles Schwab "A lot is made of the 'cash on the sidelines' story when observing assets in money market funds; however, as a share of total equity market value, it's significantly more subdued." Sam Ro, editor, TKer "Over 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year periods, the S&P 500 on average has generated positive returns. But as this data from JPMorgan Asset Management shows, investing specifically at all-time highs has actually generated higher average returns over these time horizons." Another economic turning point Greg Daco, chief economist, EY "We estimate that roughly a quarter of the monthly CPI advance in June can be attributed to a tariff-induced impulse. Prices for household equipment and furnishings, appliances, window and floor coverings, and toys experienced their largest gains since the early 2020s, while prices for computers, audio and video equipment, and apparel posted notable gains. "As of June, the average tariff rate was 15%, yet effective customs duties imply a realized rate closer to 10.1%. Strategies used by companies to avoid passing on cost increases to consumers — inventory front-loading, using bonded warehouses and foreign trade zones, reducing margins — are not eternal. As such, we should expect a muggy inflation summer." David Mericle, chief US economist, Goldman Sachs "We estimate that tariffs have boosted consumer prices by 0.2% cumulatively so far but think that the largest effects are still ahead of us. Tariff effects are likely to push core inflation back above 3% over the next year, despite an underlying trend that we see as steadily moving back to 2%. We expect tariffs to have only a one-time effect on the price level rather than igniting persistent high inflation and consequently expect inflation to resume its decline toward 2% down the road as the tariff effects drop out of the year-over-year calculation." Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Michael Reid, chief economist, RBC Capital Markets "This chart looks at the relationship between wages and profits and their respective shares of GVA [gross value added] (i.e., the contribution to GDP). This is an important relationship because wages represent the largest share of GVA, which has fallen below 50% for most of the last decade. At the same time, profits' share increased to all-time highs. Our concern is that tariffs will start to add pressure to margins (i.e., corporate profits will be squeezed if businesses absorb some of the tariffs and/or we see demand destruction). The result will likely be cost-cutting in the wages space (i.e., layoffs) to bolster profits." Mark Zandi, chief US economist, Moody's "Labor force growth is slumping. Given the new population controls, measuring labor force growth is tricky, but by my calculation, it's at a standstill. Behind this are the severe restrictions on immigration. This time last year, the foreign-born labor force was growing 5%. It's now declining. The native-born labor force remains moribund. The implications of a flagging labor force are disconcerting. It means serious disruptions to businesses that rely on immigrant labor, ranging from construction and agriculture to hospitality and retailing. It also means higher inflation, just when the higher tariffs are set to push up prices. The economy's real potential GDP growth — that pace of growth consistent with stable inflation — is also lower. It is currently closer to 1% than the 2% we have come to think of as typical. Think of what this means for everything from asset returns to our already dire fiscal outlook." Thomas Ryan, North America economist, Capital Economics "After curbing unauthorised immigration at the Southwest border, the Trump administration is now steadily increasing detentions and deportations. This crackdown is starting to impact labour supply: The foreign-born share of the labour force fell to 19.1% in June, down from a peak of 19.8% in March. That marks a decline of over 1 million people, at least partly due to stepped-up ICE enforcement. A recent large boost to ICE's budget in the One Big Beautiful Act suggests this trend will persist, keeping unemployment low even as job growth slows. That, in turn, supports our expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady this year." Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist, Oxford Economics "Foreign-born workers made a huge contribution to labor force growth as the US emerged from the pandemic, helping to restore balance to the labor market and ease wage and inflation pressures. ... We think the trend will come to an end, however. The foreign-born share of the labor force declined in the second quarter of 2025. The labor force data for foreign-born workers can be noisy, so we shouldn't read too much into one quarter of data. Also, foreign-born workers typically don't enter the labor market immediately upon arriving in the US, so there still may be some growth related to those who arrived over the past few years. But we expect the Trump administration's immigration and deportation policies to result in a much lower pace of immigration over the next few years than we previously anticipated, and before too long, that will translate into slower growth in the foreign-born share of the labor force." Aditya Bhave, head of US economics, BofA Securities "Going forward, we think tighter immigration policy restrictions will reduce the breakeven pace of employment growth to about 70k (from 125k currently) for the next two years as the immigration supply shock plays out. Hence, we expect the [unemployment] rate to rise modestly, reaching 4.4% in 4Q 2025 and peaking at 4.5% in 1Q-3Q 2026 despite payrolls slowing down to 50k in [the second half of 2025] & 70k in 2026. Chair Powell has argued that the Fed's job is to manage aggregate demand in a manner that meets aggregate supply 'where it's at.' So, with the u-rate rising gradually in our forecast and core PCE inflation likely to reach 3% over the summer, we don't think the Fed will be able to cut rates this year." Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist, Carson Group "Household balance sheets are as in as good a shape as ever, with lower liabilities and higher asset values as a percent of disposable income. Two big reasons driving this are rising home prices and surging stock prices over the last 5 years. This likely says households are in very solid shape as we head into [the second half of 2025]." Thomas Simons, chief US economist, Jefferies "The Philly Fed's survey on consumer credit conditions increased from 31.7% in Q4 2019 to almost 36.7% in mid-Q2 2021. Obviously, this is one of the consequences of the COVID stimulus checks and the forbearance on student loans, and it might be easy to dismiss the surge as temporary and insignificant in the long run. However, the share has since come down to about 35.4%, which [is] off the highs but still well above levels that we were used to before the pandemic. The same Philly Fed survey reports that there are 584 million open accounts, so the increase to 35.4% paying their full balance from 31.7% means that households have 21.6 million fewer open accounts accumulating interest charges. This is a key step on the way to being able to save money and accumulate wealth; a much more optimistic story than what we hear most of the time when it comes to consumer credit these days." Wells Fargo Economics team led by Jay Bryson "There's a repeated refrain that tariffs are not having an impact, and that assessment misses the mark. Consumer spending is not as sturdy as it was initially reported in the first quarter. With two months of data on hand for the second quarter, it is becoming increasingly clear that households are reducing their discretionary outlays. In May, real discretionary services spending fell 0.3% year-over-year. While that is a modest contraction, this measure has only declined either during or immediately after recessions over the past 60+ years." Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist, Deutsche Bank "One big question at the Fed and fiscal nexus has been whether removing Chair Powell would reduce fiscal costs for the Federal government. In a recent note, we used last week's headlines around President Trump being ready to fire Powell as an event study to answer this question. Taking market moves around these news reports (i.e., a significant twist steepening of the curve) at face value, we find that the cost savings from lower front-end yields would be largely offset by higher long-term yields. Specifically, the Treasury would only save $12-15bn through 2027 if the President fired Powell, even if Treasury delayed coupon increases to skew more issuance towards bills." Liz Everett Krisberg, head of Bank of America Institute "There are several signs that rising costs of living are putting financial pressure on some younger consumers. Looking at Bank of America credit card data on households with a revolving balance, Millennials have seen the largest rise in their utilization rate. However, the good news is that their rates appear to have stabilized over the past year and a half." A shifting investing landscape Campbell Harvey, economist, Duke University "Passive investing has overtaken active investing and shows no sign of slowing down. There are risks to passive investing. Passive investing buys based on only one [criterion] — market capitalization. There is no price discovery. Passive investing does not care if the stock is under- or overvalued. Further, because all stocks are bought or purchased at the same time, this increases correlations, thereby reducing diversification benefits and, at the same time, increases systemic risk — in a crisis, all stocks are dumped at the same time." Read more here. Todd Sohn, technical strategist, Strategas "Defensive sectors are disappearing within the S&P 500 as it becomes more dominated by Tech. Heck, Nvidia is almost the size of Healthcare now! So, investors need to think differently about how to defend and diversify a portfolio at this stage, given the overexposure to large-cap Growth. That's still the core and key player in almost any portfolio, but perhaps look outside the equity box for strategies that can be a shock absorber in volatile environments." Daniel Morris, chief market strategist, BNP Paribas Asset Management "Most investors are aware of the dominance of technology shares in the US equity market. This phenomenon began in the 1990s with the arrival of the internet, received a big boost during COVID lockdowns, and has accelerated further with the onset of AI. Tariffs provide another reason for the sector to dominate. While tariffs may not help the sector, they hurt it less than others in the market due to the higher share of services revenue versus goods. "Investors may not be aware, however, of how dominant technology has been in emerging markets. Since 2008, emerging market technology stocks have outperformed the rest of emerging markets by nearly 500%, compared to a 350% outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 index versus the Russell Value. For the rest of developed market equities (primarily Europe and Japan), technology has underperformed. This is not to suggest these indices have not risen, but just that the factors driving the performance are different." Gabriela Santos, chief strategist for the Americas, JPMorgan Asset Management "This chart shows how this year's outperformance of 1,200bps by international stocks may have caught some investors by surprise — but it's a long time coming and just the start. It's a combination of 'push and pull': expensive U.S. valuations pushing investors to diversify and a pull from the rest of the world due to less earnings dispersion. Earnings in the Eurozone, Japan, and pockets of EM have been keeping up with or beating U.S. earnings this cycle, powered by the end of deflation and negative interest rates, a new focus on shareholder returns, and now further turbocharged by fiscal spending. It's not about a global rotation due to the 'end of U.S. exceptionalism' altogether — it's about a 'normalization of U.S. exceptionalism' from near record valuations and weights in portfolios.' Steve Sosnick, chief strategist, Interactive Brokers "While the S&P 500 has put in a nice performance since each of those dates, it has, of course, lagged the tech-heavy Nasdaq. But it has also underperformed other global indices. Among major indices, the DAX and Hang Seng have been the biggest winners, while the FTSE and STOXX 50 have generally kept pace with the SPX. Considering that the dollar has fallen against the Euro and Pound, that improves the relative returns of European markets for US-based investors. While past performance is no guarantee of future results — of course — the recent performance of various non-US markets should remind investors that there are plenty of opportunities outside our borders." Jay Jacobs, head of equity ETFs, BlackRock "Looking at the world through a thematic lens has become a more effective way of trying to digest what's happening and capture return opportunities than looking at it through a traditional sector lens. If you took a very traditional sector-based approach to the world since the beginning of the year, you might see geopolitical fragmentation and some economic uncertainty resulting in a consumer pullback, [so] that you would shift from consumer discretionary into consumer staples. And indeed, ... consumer staples have outperformed consumer discretionary, but it hasn't really fully explained what's going on because one of the challenges is that consumer staples [has] a highly globally integrated supply chain. So if you're concerned about supply chains or tariff risk or other disruptions, consumer staples doesn't offer that much protection." Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist, Charles Schwab "This chart shows ten-year Treasury yields and the broad-based Bloomberg Dollar Index. We are watching the divergence in trend between yields and the dollar. Typically, trends in interest rates and the dollar are correlated with high and/or rising yields, leading to dollar strength. However, since April, when the U.S. tariff policy was announced, the dollar has fallen sharply while yields have trended sideways. It suggests that global investors are expressing concerns about U.S. policy by moving out of dollars and/or anticipate policies to weaken the dollar. It could be a structural change that means U.S. yields will remain higher for longer than anticipated, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this fall. Foreign investors may be more cautious about holding dollar-denominated assets in the current environment. If that continues, it would have a significant impact on the cost of financing the deficit, inflation, and interest rates." Robert Sockin, global economist, Citi "Fiscal performance is challenged in many countries around the world. Countries including the United States, United Kingdom, France, Japan, India, China, and Brazil are expected to run large fiscal deficits even though their debt levels are already high. Italy, Spain, and Canada, meanwhile, are expected to run somewhat more modest deficits, although their debt levels remain elevated. "There is no clearly defined limit for how high debt can go that can be identified in advance. The US and many other indebted countries successfully issue significant quantities of government securities. Still, while markets have shown patience with high levels of indebtedness, we judge that this patience has limits. We saw one example of this in the UK during the fall of 2022 when proposed tax cuts set off a crisis of market confidence. "It strikes us as imprudent to experiment with the limits of market patience, but governments in several major countries nevertheless seem inclined to do exactly that." This project would not be possible without the work of Yahoo Finance Senior Editor Brent Sanchez, who turned Wall Street jargon into a digestible visual presentation of the current market moment. And a special thanks to Yahoo Finance's team of editors who worked on this project, including Myles Udland, David Foster, Nina Moothedath, Adriana Belmonte, Grace O'Donnell, and Brett LoGiurato. Most of all, thank you to all of the experts who contributed their time and thought to this project and helped make this Chartbook such a valuable snapshot in economic time. Josh Schafer is a senior markets reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Have thoughts on volume five of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook or have a specific question about markets or the economy you'd like to see a Chartbook for? Email him at Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
USA Today
27 minutes ago
- USA Today
Epstein accomplice Maxwell angles for a Trump pardon. Would she lie to help him?
Doesn't it make sense to wonder if Maxwell is willing to lie to help herself, if that also helps Trump – an old friend, who was known for hanging around with Epstein? We don't know what Ghislaine Maxwell, the convicted child sex trafficker and former paramour/accomplice to the dead pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, said during a pair of prison interviews July 24-25 with Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche. And we don't know how Maxwell, now serving a 20-year federal prison sentence for her despicable crimes, will respond to a subpoena issued July 23 by the Republican-controlled U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. But now seems like a good time to ask if anyone should believe anything Maxwell has to say about anything. Ghislaine Maxwell has a history of lying about Jeffrey Epstein Here's what we do know: Maxwell is in prison because she recruited girls under the age of 18, groomed them to be sexually abused by Epstein and then sometimes joined in. "The victims were as young as 14," according to the Department of Justice. Maxwell took these girls to the movies and on shopping trips. She asked them about school, while teaching them to submit to whatever Epstein desired. And then she denied all that. Here's another thing we know: The federal grand jury in New York that indicted her in July 2020 – during President Donald Trump's first term – called her a liar. That indictment included two counts of perjury for allegedly lying while testifying under oath in a civil court case about Epstein's sexual abuse of underage girls. Opinion: Republicans in Congress head home to angry voters. So much for summer break. The Department of Justice and Maxwell's lawyers mutually agreed to drop those perjury charges in 2022, soon after her conviction, if the court did not grant her a retrial. Prosecutors did that to help the victims whom Epstein and Maxwell abused avoid another public spectacle. But Maxwell's grand jury indictment cites her own words from that civil case – "I don't know what you're talking about" – as she denied the kinds of sexual abuse that the trial jury later convicted her for. It's not a stretch to think the trial jury would have convicted her for perjury, too, if those charges had not been spun off into a separate case. Why should we believe Maxwell now? So why believe what she has to say now, as she sits behind bars in a Florida prison with a projected release date of July 17, 2037? Doesn't it make more sense to wonder if Maxwell is willing to lie to help herself, if that also helps Trump, who was known for hanging around with Epstein, a politician who is again president and now is talking about how he has the power to pardon Maxwell? Trump, who once exploited conspiracy theories about Epstein's 2019 suicide in federal prison – also during his first term – for political benefit, is now trapped in a quagmire of his own making. He and the people he appointed to run the Department of Justice tried to back out of a promise to release documents about Epstein's crimes, infuriating his MAGA base and prompting a bipartisan call from Congress for more transparency. So it's worth a close look at what Trump has said over the years about Maxwell, whom he socialized with in New York and Palm Beach, along with Epstein. Trump, speaking at the White House in July 2020, just 19 days after the horrible allegations were made public in Maxwell's indictment, was asked if she might "turn in powerful men" while seeking leniency in court. Trump pretended that he didn't know much about Maxwell case while twice saying "I wish her well." Opinion: MAGA is realizing Trump lies. How can they trust anything he says on Epstein? Trump's kind regards for an accused child sex trafficker drew bipartisan rebukes from Congress. That didn't stop him from offering the same sentiment two weeks later, again offering good wishes for Maxwell in an HBO interview. Will Trump's administation protect, believe Maxwell? Five years later, Trump is still playing dumb about Maxwell – and hoping his supporters play dumb as well – as he openly floats talk of a pardon while also claiming to be out of loop in a scandal that is consuming his presidency. Trump on July 25 noted that he has the power to pardon Maxwell while also claiming "it's something I have not thought about." Three days later, on a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump repeated that he has the power to pardon Maxwell, while adding that "nobody's approached me with it. Nobody's asked me about it.' Well, check your social media feed, Mr. President, because Maxwell's lawyer, the same guy who sat with her for two full days of interviews by the Department of Justice, filed an appeal of her conviction on July 28 with the U.S. Supreme Court while making a direct appeal in a social media post aimed at you. Attorney David Oscar Markus, posting on X, wrote, "We are appealing not only to the Supreme Court but to the President himself to recognize how profoundly unjust it is to scapegoat Ghislaine Maxwell for Epstein's crimes." The appeal is based on the theory that a 2007 plea agreement that won Epstein a lenient prison sentence for soliciting minors for prostitution should have also protected Maxwell from prosecution. If Maxwell is going to win some kind of protection right now, Trump is her best bet. But this scandal has metastasized for the president, and the very people he wishes to quiet down will certainly raise another ruckus if he pardons her. This is what passes for bipartisanship now: People on the left, right and center of the political spectrum are all wondering at once why anyone would believe anything Maxwell has to say. Follow USA TODAY columnist Chris Brennan on X, formerly known as Twitter: @ByChrisBrennan. Sign up for his weekly newsletter, Translating Politics, here.
