What happened to Keith Kellogg?
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When President DONALD TRUMP tapped Ret. Gen. KEITH KELLOGG to be his envoy for Russia-Ukraine peace talks in January, there was a huge sigh of relief in Kyiv and other European capitals.
Kellogg, in the eyes of Ukraine's NATO supporters in and outside of Washington, is seen as a staunch Russia hawk with real MAGA bona fides who understood the difficulties and pitfalls of negotiating with VLADIMIR PUTIN's Russia — and the risks of a bad peace deal that could end on favorable terms for Moscow.
Flash forward two months and some administration insiders say Kellogg has largely been shut out as others, including Trump's Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO, national security adviser MIKE WALTZ and and Middle East envoy STEVE WITKOFF, take center stage in talks with the Ukrainians and Russians.
The ongoing negotiations between Americans and Ukrainians in Saudi Arabia today (more on that below) are case in point: Why isn't Trump's own special envoy for Ukraine attending talks with Ukraine?
His absence there underscores how he's been sidelined, according to some Trump administration officials as well as several Republican foreign policy experts informally advising the president's team.
'Kellogg's role is very much in question,' a Trump administration official told NatSec Daily. 'It's not clear why the president won't make a final call on this. There are already too many principals, plus Witkoff, trying to play the hero on ending the war. Kellogg is limping along, adding to the confusion about who does what.' We granted the official, and others, anonymity to speak candidly about internal administration jockeying.
But other officials have contested this. 'President Trump has utilized the talents of multiple senior administration officials to assist in bringing the war in Ukraine to a peaceful resolution. Gen. Kellogg remains a valued part of the team, especially as it relates to talks with our European allies,' White House national security spokesperson JAMES HEWITT said.
White House spokesperson ANNA KELLY added: Accomplishing the president's clear directives to end this war is Gen. Kellogg's only concern.'
It's too early to tell what Kellogg's sidelining would mean for Ukraine's future. Some administration officials and Republicans close to the White House view it as a bellwether that the flank of Trump's administration more skeptical of continued U.S. support for Ukraine — exemplified by figures like Vice President JD VANCE and ELBRIDGE COLBY, a pick for a senior Pentagon role — is on the rise.
Other Republicans both inside and outside the administration have pushed back on this narrative, saying Kellogg plays an integral role in the administration and everyone in the administration knows the president has the final say on any Ukraine deal.
Further, they say Rubio and Waltz — who emerged from talks in Saudi Arabia with a major potential breakthrough on an interim ceasefire plan — are Russia hawks in their own right and retain the full confidence of the president.
A person close to Kellogg said that he frequently speaks directly to the president 'and that's who he works for and he doesn't work for anybody else.' They noted that Kellogg started working for Trump back in 2015 unlike most people involved in the negotiations. The person also argued that Kellogg has the best relationship in the administration with Ukrainian leader VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, noting that the two's relationship goes back a few years.
The person close to Kellogg denied that Kellogg is being pushed out and said it's just 'probably Washington infighting.'
Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations last week, Kellogg said he and Witkoff's team work closely together. 'Steve's a great guy, and we've got a really good relationship. And my deputy, JOHN COALE, and MORGAN ORTAGUS, we're working well together,' Kellogg said. 'My offices in State are on the seventh floor, his is on the fifth floor.'
Witkoff has an established relationship both with Putin's team after helping secure the release of American detainee MARC FOGEL and with Saudi officials who are helping broker Ukraine-Russia peace talks. 'It made a lot of sense strategically to say, 'Okay, Steve, you run this lane really hard, and I'll run this lane really hard.' We're closely aligned, talking about it, comparing notes, and providing that information,' Kellogg said.
The Inbox
THE TALKS IN SAUDI ARABIA: After hours of talks with Trump's team in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine announced it is prepared to agree to an immediate 30-day interim cease-fire, if — the key word — Russia does the same.
In exchange, the United States agreed to lift its pause on intelligence sharing and military assistance. According to the Ukrainian government's readout of the meeting, both sides agreed for their leaders to 'conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement' on opening Ukraine's deposit of rare earth minerals to investment from U.S. companies — a key part of negotiations for the U.S. president.
Trump, speaking from the White House this afternoon, said he would talk to Putin as a next step this week. 'I'll talk to Vladimir Putin,' Trump said. 'It takes two to tango.'
'I just can't echo enough — President Trump is the president of peace,' Waltz said after emerging from the talks with his Ukrainian counterparts. 'That's what he's demanding. And he's willing to take tough measures on all sides to drive that home.'
This potential breakthrough follows Ukraine launching the biggest drone strike yet of the war on Moscow overnight on Monday in response to Russian forces escalating their attacks in recent days on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
RUTTE EN ROUTE: White House spokesperson KAROLINE LEAVITT announced today that NATO Secretary General MARK RUTTE will be in Washington on Thursday for a 'working visit and lunch.' The unexpected meeting will come on the heels of the U.S.-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia and follows anxiety on the other side of the Atlantic about Trump's commitment to the multilateral defense pact.
WHAT'S NEXT FOR JAKE: President JOE BIDEN's former national security adviser, JAKE SULLIVAN, is taking up two new university roles now that he's left government, NatSec Daily has learned. Sullivan, a longtime fixture of Democratic foreign policy circles, will be announced as Harvard Kennedy School's inaugural Kissinger professor of the practice of statecraft and world order. He'll also be a faculty affiliate of Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and teach courses in international and global affairs.
Separately, he's taking up a role at the University of New Hampshire as a senior fellow at the Carsey School of Public Policy and the Franklin Pierce School of Law. (Reminder, Sullivan is married to freshman Democratic New Hampshire Rep. MAGGIE GOODLANDER, solidifying his ties to the Granite State.)
(UN)LUCK OF THE IRISH: Irish Taoiseach MICHEAL MARTIN is coming to Washington tomorrow ahead of traditional St. Patrick's Day diplomatic festivities, and Dublin is bracing for the uncertainty of meeting Trump.
As our colleague Shawn Pogatchnik reports, Ireland already has disagreements with the U.S. over Ukraine, Gaza, where it has been critical of the Israeli government's conduct of the war against Hamas, and the Trump team's tirades on tariffs and trade that have already hit other U.S. pals like Canada and Germany.
IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team:@dave_brown24,@HeidiVogt,@jessicameyers,@RosiePerper,@nahaltoosi,@PhelimKine,@ak_mack,@connorobrienNH,@paulmcleary,@reporterjoe,@JackDetsch,@samuelskove,@magmill95,@johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel
Keystrokes
MUSK'S UKRAINE HACK MISSIVES: Tech mogul and Trump adviser ELON MUSK is accusing Ukraine of launching a cyberattack against his social media platform X, but experts aren't sold on the accusation.
As our colleague Sam Clark reports, the attack that throttled access to the social media platform was a a so-called distributed-denial-of-service attack, wherein hackers and malign actors direct an overwhelming amount of traffic at a website to bring it down.
The nature of the hack, per former British cyber chief CIARAN MARTIN, means some of those devices used in the attack could have been located in Ukraine, but 'some of them will be from Russia, some will be from Britain, from the U.S., South America, everywhere. It tells you absolutely nothing.' An industry representative also told Reuters the amount of traffic coming from Ukraine appeared 'insignificant.'
But the accusations from Musk have sparked worries it could embolden critics of Ukraine and be used against Kyiv. It may also cloud efforts by some in the Trump administration to reset the U.S.-Ukraine relationship and overcome the turbulence of last month's frosty Oval Office meeting.
The Complex
MERZ'S BAD NEWS: A new report is casting doubt on Germany's military readiness as the White House ratchets up its pressure against European allies on common defense.
As our colleague Chris Lunday writes, the country's annual report of the state of its armed forces contained grim details about lagging recruitment, aging technology and deteriorating readiness. Germany is struggling to recruit young people to join the armed forces and falling behind in its efforts to have 203,000 troops in active duty by 2031.
'The situation is serious,' EVA HÖGL, the parliamentary commissioner for Germany's armed forces, said today. 'We are still not where we need to be and there is still much to do to improve the conditions for the Bundeswehr.'
The report couldn't come at a worse time for Germany, which is aiming to take on a larger role in common defense as the U.S. alienates European allies and Europe feels pressure to increase its active support for Ukraine. And members of the German left are slow-walking efforts by the incoming German government to increase the country's debt and finance a military buildup.
On the Hill
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DEMS CALL FOR UKRAINE RESET: Democratic members of the Ukraine caucus are urging Ukraine and the U.S. to reset the bilateral relationship and focus on the threats posed by Russia, and offering Trump some rare compliments from the left side of politics in the process.
In a Mar. 5 letter to Trump and Zelenskyy, six House Democrats argued that 'while Friday's Oval Office meeting did not turn out as planned, it is incumbent to move forward, look to the future, and return to exploring how our nations can continue to work together to build peace and security for Ukraine and the world.'
The Democrats told Trump 'you were right in January, President Trump, when you labeled Putin the impediment to peace' and thanked him for his and Zelenskyy's 'work to safeguard freedom for Ukrainians and Americans.'
The letter was led by Rep. JIM COSTA of California and signed by MARCY KAPTUR of Ohio, MIKE QUIGLEY of Illinois, BRENDAN BOYLE of Pennsylvania, BILL KEATING of Massachusetts and DINA TITUS of Nevada.
FOREIGN AID WORLD FIGHTS BACK: USAID staff, foreign aid implementers and supporters will be in the Hart building of Congress Wednesday morning to lobby members of Congress in support of foreign aid following Trump's efforts to dismantle and drastically scale down the aid agency. The action is part of a wider campaign asking members of Congress to maintain support and funding for foreign aid, as our own Carmen Paun writes in.
Broadsides
DUTERTE'S DAY IN COURT: Former Philippines President RODRIGO DUTERTE was arrested after the International Criminal Court indicted him on charges he committeed crimes against humanity as part of his government's vicious crackdown on alleged drug dealers.
The current president, FERDINAND MARCOS JR, told reporters today that the arrest of Duterte was 'proper, correct and followed all necessary legal procedures.' Duterte was placed on a plane bound for the Netherlands, where the International Criminal Court is located. He added Manila 'did not help the International Criminal Court in any way. The arrest was made in compliance with Interpol.'
Duterte, who served in office from 2016 to 2022, was placed under investigation by the international tribunal in 2021 after human rights groups warned about extrajudicial killings and other crimes against humanity allegedly committed under his leadership. The investigation resumed in 2023.
Transitions
— BETHANY STEVENS is now press secretary for NASA. She previously was press secretary for Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) and worked for former Rep. KEVIN BRADY.
— KAREN KORNBLUH is now a visiting fellow at the Center for Democracy & Technology. She most recently was principal deputy White House chief technology officer and director of the National AI Office.
— JAMIE MORGAN is launching Gray Book Consulting and has joined Carnegie Mellon's Institute for Strategy and Technology as a non-resident fellow. She most recently was director for regional affairs in South and Southeast Asia at the Defense Department and previously worked for the Foreign Affairs Committee and Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D-Nev.).
— VINCENT VOCI is now director of global government relations and partnerships at Cloudflare. He previously was vice president of cyber policy and operations at the Chamber of Commerce.
— ETHAN SORCHER is now military legislative assistant for Rep. WESLEY BELL (D-Mo.). He previously was a foreign policy legislative assistant for Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.).
— CATE DILLON is now White House liaison at the State Department. She most recently worked on the 2024 Republican National Convention.
What to Read
— Phelim Kine and Nahal Toosi, POLITICO: USAID official tells remaining staffers: Shred and burn all your documents
— Fatima AbdulKarim, The New York Times: Despair haunts Ramadan for Palestinians displaced in West Bank
— Luis Sevillano Pires, Ignacio Fariza and Carlos Torralba, El Pais: Submarine cables: The weakest link in Europe's strategic infrastructure
— Juan Forero, The Wall Street Journal: Blocked from reaching the U.S., migrants begin the reverse journey south
Tomorrow Today
— House Foreign Affairs Africa Subcommittee, 9 a.m.: Conflict and persecution in Nigeria: The case for a CPC (country of particular concern) designation
— Senate Armed Services Readiness and Management Support Subcommittee, 9:30 a.m.: A hearing on the current readiness of the Joint Force
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: A tech power playbook for the United States' with Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.)
— Heritage Foundation, 10 a.m.:From special relationship to strategic partnership: The future of U.S.-Israel relations
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: A virtual book discussion on 'The Routledge Handbook of Space Policy.'
— Henry L. Stimson Center and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 10 a.m.: Arms transfer trends in an uncertain world
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: 'Why Quantum is a Must-Win Tech' with Rep. RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.)
— Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: 'A New Approach to America's Role in the World' with Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.)
Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose absence is never felt.
Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, without whom we are always aimless.
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