Open Championship betting: Centuries-old traditions, the 5 stages of Rory McIlroy and more

New York Times

16-07-2025

Imagine the scene: Scotland, 1457. A couple of local lads — let's call 'em Angus and Fergus — have heard about this new game amongst the townspeople. They decide to try it themselves, using a shepherd's crook to hit a feather into a rabbit hole.
Just as Angus is about to swing, though, Fergus decides to increase the stakes.
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'Five pence says I can do it in fewer tries than you,' he boasts.
Spoiler alert: Fergus won, Angus pressed and the ritual of golf betting was born.
Fast forward more than a half-millennium, and here we are, staring down the windswept fairways of Royal Portrush in advance of the 153rd Open Championship, wondering not just which player will lift the Claret Jug, but who will cash a top-10 ticket at 12-to-1 odds.
If this major is all about tradition — and it undoubtedly is, from the links courses featured in the rota to pot bunkers conceived by the most devious of golf gods to thrashing rain coming down sideways, which the locals categorize as 'a wee mist' — then few traditions have persevered like wagering on the outcome.
Even a simple internet search suggests that the initial edition of this event in 1860, despite being a stroke-play endeavor rather than the more gambling-friendly match-play format, included plenty of side action, with eventual winners correctly predicting victory for Willie Park Sr. over Old Tom Morris at Prestwick.
They say the more things change, the more they stay the same — and there are few better examples than this, even if the particulars have evolved dramatically.
There used to be a time when buddies would bet a pint at the local 19th hole on Arnie over Jack at this event. Now, some guy in Des Moines is using an odds boost to bet $51.39 that Nicolai Højgaard will hit more than 11.5 greens in regulation during the opening round.
Those Old Tom backers probably wouldn't recognize modern golf betting — the apps, the analytics, the idea of live-betting a matchup parlay from your couch half a world away. But know this: They'd respect the hustle.
We can now wager on the result of every shot, not to mention uber-specific and 'interesting'-sounding categories like Top Left-handed Amateur and Low Estonian, but the general theme remains: We collectively enjoy a little personal investment with our golf, whether we're watching or playing.
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Those with plans to wake up at 3:45 a.m. this Thursday to sweat a first-round leader bet are already nodding vigorously at the prospect of cashing a ticket before the first coffee even kicks in.
The last time the Open Championship came to Portrush, six years ago, half the locals could have buried their hard-earned cash next to Rory McIlroy's opening tee shot, which sailed forlornly out of bounds and left Irish eyes anything but smiling. The other half, though, celebrated their Shane Lowry winnings long into Sunday evening, proving that betting with your heart can sometimes pay off.
Speaking of McIlroy, who returns to his native Northern Ireland as a Masters champion this week, those backing him very well might again experience the five emotional stages of Rory wagering:
1. Optimism (Thursday 10:10 a.m. ET tee time)
2. Euphoria (Friday night leading by two)
3. Mild Concern (Saturday back-nine bogey train)
4. Existential Crisis (Sunday missed putt from six feet)
5. 'I'm never betting on him again' (until next week)
Bettors will insist they abhor riding that temperamental roller coaster, but the thrill of the chase is often as enthralling as the potential return on investment. It's what'll have us pumping a fist at the TV this week when a Jordan Spieth tee shot appears headed for a gorse bush, only to inexplicably pop out to a playable lie. It's why we'll break a toe kicking a table leg when a contending Tommy Fleetwood invariably leaves a third-straight putt short of the hole.
In a world where everything that happened more than five minutes ago has been long forgotten already, when our next dopamine rush is just a Tik Tok swipe away, it's important to remember that firing a few bucks on Marco Penge to make the cut is essentially a paean to our ancestors, those who had the foresight to invent the game of golf, then immediately start betting on it.
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Back then, it was all about the winner. Today, it's still about finding a winner, but it's also about finding an edge on the total number of birdies in Group H.
As you watch the Open Championship this week and experience the unmitigated joy of seeing your 500-to-1 long-shot bet climb the leaderboard, only to minutes later endure the heartache of his triple-bogey decline, remember one thing: You can always open another bet, as Angus already understood hundreds of years ago.
(Photo of Rory McIlroy: Richard Heathcote / Getty Images)