Is Trump backing Putin's plan for 'peace'?

Australia Broadcast Center

3 hours ago

Sam Hawley: If the Putin-Trump meeting on the weekend brought about anything at all, it was a closer relationship between the two leaders. One, an accused war criminal. The other, a convicted felon. So, with the US president rolling out the red carpet for his Russian counterpart, what will Vladimir Putin do next? Today, Russia expert Matthew Sussex from the Centre for European Studies at the ANU on Putin's ultimate aim and how Trump's helping him achieve it. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal Land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Matt, it's pretty clear there was only one winner from the Trump-Putin summit on the weekend and it wasn't Donald Trump.
Matthew Sussex: Yes, that's absolutely right. Vladimir Putin walked away or jetted off after skipping lunch. He was treated as a respected leader rather than an indicted war criminal.
News report: Vladimir Putin receives a red carpet welcome. The accused war criminal was even invited into the confines of President Trump's personal limousine. A beaming Putin was seen as the beast drove away.
Matthew Sussex: You know, he got to meet Trump as an equal. He got a photo opportunity. He also got Trump to put the onus for accepting what were basically Russian terms for an end to the war back onto Ukraine and Europe by saying, oh, well, it's up to them.
Donald Trump, US President: There were many, many points that we agreed on. Most of them, I would say, a couple of big ones that we haven't quite gotten there, but we've made some headway. So there's no deal until there's a deal. I will call up NATO.
Matthew Sussex: So he got exactly what he could have hoped for.
Vladimir Putin, Russian President: I would like to thank once again my American counterpart when I came out of the plane and I said, good afternoon, dear neighbour. Very good to see you in good health and to see you alive. I think that is very neighbourly.
Sam Hawley: Well, in the wake of the summit, of course, the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, along with European leaders, will be meeting Donald Trump in Washington. We're recording before that meeting, but I'm sure there'll be a lot to say about it in the days ahead. But what I want to do with you, Matt, is to really concentrate on Vladimir Putin, on his motivations, on his tactics. He was obviously pleased with the outcome of the summit. He was pleased with the outcome of the meeting with Donald Trump because he doesn't want a ceasefire, does he? He has no interest in that.
Matthew Sussex: No, that's absolutely right, Sam. He wants to kick the can down the road as long as humanly possible so that he can continue advancing in Ukraine. Now, he only controls about 20% of Ukraine, so he wants to delay because he ultimately thinks that he can convey the message to Trump and to the Europeans and to Ukraine itself. Look, you know, I have an unending stream of expendable cannon fodder that I can throw at this conflict and that inexorably I will continue and I'll get what I want. So you might as well come to the bargaining table. And I think also he's very much reassured that Trump is not going to put any pressure on him at all and that Trump sees really that he wants an end to the conflict only so that he can get the credit for it and it really doesn't matter how it happens. And to get there, he's obviously decided that Zelenskyy is the weaker link and he's the one that should be pressured by the White House.
Sam Hawley: So Putin's ultimate aim remains to take as much of Ukraine as possible. In comments Matt, after the summit, he said he wants a fair balance in the security sphere in Europe.
Vladimir Putin, Russian President: In order to make the settlement lasting and long term, we need to eliminate all the primary roots, the primary causes of that conflict. And we've said it multiple times, to consider all legitimate concerns of Russia and to reinstate a just balance of security in Europe and in the world on the whole.
Sam Hawley: What does he mean by that?
Matthew Sussex: Well, this is a reference to what Russia has long desired, basically since only a few years after the breakup of the USSR, and that is friendly spheres of influence. So being surrounded by buffer states that are naturally predisposed to good relations with Moscow and a sort of insulator, if you like, between Russia and the West. And this has been part of the Russian security policy discourse since even before Vladimir Putin came to office as president, but he's certainly boosted it because he believes that Russia needs to be a great power, that Russia is effectively the third Rome that unites a whole bunch of different civilizations and that if Russia is not powerful, then those groups will fall to fighting amongst one another. And so I think Putin's ultimate goal here is to reshape the European security order that the Soviet collapse brought about by basically taking Ukraine, if he can't get it by subterfuge, then he'll take it by force. And he's proven that in Belarus, he's basically co-opted Alexander Lukashenko, he's vulnerable on his southern flank in Central Asia, but he sees Ukraine as a kind of vital bulwark between himself and the West, and more than that too, a vast supply of coal and minerals that can be used to boost the Russian economy.
Sam Hawley: So since the end of the Cold War, Russia's power has been diminished and Putin wants to restore it. So just explain to me what ultimately he wants. It's not all of Ukraine at this point, is it? What would he be saying to his military chiefs sitting in Moscow?
Matthew Sussex: Well, look, Putin has had the same goal since the start of the conflict, and that is to capture four key regions of Ukraine...
Sam Hawley: Mm-hm.
Matthew Sussex: ..which are Donetsk, Luhansk in the east, often referred to as the Donbas, and also the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in the south. In addition to, of course, what he already has in Crimea. And because he was so ambitious in thinking that the war would end soon, he actually wrote in, he's had it written into Russian law, that those places are part of Russia, and that is Russian territory. But, of course, the slow progress of his military means that he can't occupy or doesn't occupy those territories. In fact, of those four, he only fully occupies one. And so what he's asking for now, demanding, is that the Ukrainians cede Donetsk Oblast, which is a huge amount of territory, and would force them to give up some really vital fortified cities and defence lines, which the Russians have been trying for three and a half years to crack and can't. So here, you know, Putin is basically trying to turn Ukraine into a rump state.
Sam Hawley: And while all these diplomatic discussions are going on, then, Matt, what's actually happening on the battlefield? Is Russia pushing ahead? Is it gaining ground at this point?
Matthew Sussex: Look, it is extremely slowly. The Russians launched a massive push about a week ago to try and grab territory around the town of Pokrovsk, and in doing that, tried to fracture the Ukrainian lines. But the Ukrainians, to their credit again, have managed to cut that off and are now pushing the Russians back again. So it is still ultimately, even though there is very, very fierce fighting, it's still ultimately in terms of where the battle lines start and stop, pretty much a stalemate.
Sam Hawley: Well, Matt, another thing, of course, that Vladimir Putin wants is a change in leadership in Ukraine. He needs a leader there that supports Russia.
Matthew Sussex: Well, he can ask for it, but it's ultimately up to the Ukrainians to decide who their leaders are. I mean, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is still pretty popular as a leader, and there's certainly war weariness in Ukraine, but there's an equal number of people who would be aghast if Zelenskyy agreed to Russia's demands, let alone step down. And so I think, you know, the Russians have tried for many years to have Kremlin-friendly leaders. If there is an end to this conflict, you will see, and Zelensky remains in place, you'll see huge efforts by the Russians to undertake all sorts of political warfare tactics, information operations, to ensure a change of government in Kiev.
Sam Hawley: All right, well, let's look now, Matt, at how Putin is dealing with Donald Trump, playing him, if you like. At this point, Donald Trump has done quite a lot for Putin, hasn't he? Including now giving up on a threat of further sanctions.
Matthew Sussex: Yeah, absolutely. Trump has done an enormous amount of favours for Vladimir Putin, and it really does seem at this point that he is more concerned with friendly relations with the Kremlin than he is really achieving, you know, a fair and lasting peace in Ukraine. He's had numerous opportunities to put pressure on Russia and hasn't, and ultimately he's now indicating that he's backing, effectively, the Russian peace proposal, which is a huge break in terms of his relations with European allies, which, you know, the rest of NATO thinks that this is absolutely abhorrent. And so here Putin is sort of, I think, engineered, for whatever reason, a situation where the White House sees the future of its sort of great power relationships as being very much focused on a good alignment with Russia, which is something, of course, that previously has been absolutely unthinkable and which, you know, large numbers of Trump's own party, the Republicans, don't like either. But, of course, given Trump's dominance of the Republican base as well as Senate and Congress, it means that their voices are very much muted.
Sam Hawley: Mm, and the question always is, though, Matt, isn't it, why, why is Trump treating Vladimir Putin in this way? As you say, he's a war criminal. There are occasionally suggestions that, of course, Putin might have something on Trump that we don't know about because people just can't understand why this is happening in this way.
Matthew Sussex: Yeah, look, I mean, we're unlikely to know anytime soon, if that's the case, but certainly even if you go by the official rationale for reengaging with Russia, it's about trying to split Moscow away from Beijing, which, quite frankly, is an absolute fantasy. The idea that Putin, who has had dozens and dozens of one-on-one meetings with Xi Jinping, who has a no-limits partnership with China and who shares Xi Jinping's view that the West is basically in the dustbin of history, the thought that he would actually pivot to be a friend of the United States, I think is just absolute fabulism. But nonetheless, it's something that Trump has decided that he wants to pursue. And that means, of course, that everybody else, whether it's the Ukrainians or particularly the Europeans, they need to respond accordingly and view the United States as perhaps now more of a friend to Russia and Vladimir Putin than it is to European security interests.
Sam Hawley: What do you think? What will Trump's next move be? Putin has suggested, of course, that they could meet in Moscow.
Matthew Sussex: Yeah, he has. And Trump, to his credit, said, So I think I'd cop a little bit of flack for that.
Donald Trump, US President: Thank you very much, Vladimir.
Vladimir Putin, Russian President: And next time in Moscow.
Donald Trump, US President: Ooh, that's an interesting one. I'll get a little heat on that one, but I could see it possibly happening. Thank you very much, Vladimir. And thank you all. Thank you. Thank you.
Sam Hawley: Do you think he can be convinced that the path he's going down right now is the wrong one, that he needs to come in and back Ukraine?
Matthew Sussex: Look, you know, I'd like to think that that might be the case, but I'm just not sure that there's going to be enough domestic pressure on him to bring that about. I think you judge countries by what they do, not what they say. And, you know, Trump has not put a single direct extra sanction on Russia since he's taken office. He's walked back now even the secondary sanctions on countries like India. And he just seems, for whatever reason, to be absolutely reluctant to do anything to get Putin to change his behaviour.
Sam Hawley: Matthew Sussex is from the Centre for European Studies at the Australian National University. This episode was produced by Cinnamon Nippard and Sydney Pead. Audio production by Sam Dunn.Our supervising producer is David Coady. I’m Sam Hawley. To get in touch with the team, email us on [e-mail]. Thanks for listening.