How important is a fast start to the season?

BBC News

16 hours ago

The Premier League starts on Friday, with every team dreaming of getting a few early wins under their belt.Champions Liverpool get the campaign under way at home to Bournemouth, with everyone else involved in the following three days.How important is a quick start to the season in the first few games? And do any teams have a particularly difficult or relatively easy start?BBC Sport has a look.
How much can we read into a quick start?
Last season the top eight in the Premier League after five games ended up finishing as the top eight (albeit not all in the same positions).If that repeated itself this season it would mean that with 33 games to go we could rule 12 teams out of qualifying for Europe through the league.Some 12 teams finished within two places of where they were after five games.And 18 finished within four places - with only Everton (20th to 13th) and Tottenham (10th to 17th) moving more.
Do eventual champions start quickly?
Only 36% of teams who are top at the end of September win the title - including Liverpool last season.So how much does a good start indicate who will win the league?The record amount of points after 10 games is 28 (nine wins and a draw). All those four teams - Manchester City (2011-12 and 2017-18), Chelsea (2005-06) and Liverpool (2019-20) went on to win the title.But the two teams who had the next best starts, with 27 points - Newcastle (1995-96) and Arsenal (2022-23) - failed to convert it into silverware after infamous collapses.
Newcastle were top after 10 games in three consecutive seasons and did not win the title in any of them.There are plenty of examples of teams picking up 26 points in their opening 10 games and not going on to win the title.That includes Tottenham, who had a stunning start to life under Ange Postecoglou in 2023-24 before eventually finishing fifth.
However, seven teams have not even been on 20 points after 10 games and still won the title. Manchester City came back to win the title by a clear 12 points in 2020-21. They were sixth, sitting on 18 points and three points off top, after 10 games.That was the first of City's four titles in a row - and they were not top after 10 games in any of them.
How about promoted teams?
For promoted trio Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland, the concern will be much lower down the table in their bid to avoid relegation.Especially after two seasons in a row where the promoted trio went straight back down.For promoted teams, getting 11 points in the first 10 games seems to be the magic mark.No promoted team in the past decade have been relegated from that position - and, going back to the start of the Premier League, only 14% of teams have been.
And yet the 86% survival rate from 11 points drops to an astonishing 25% for teams who secure 10 points from their opening 10 matches.Leicester, last season, were on 10 points after 10 games and went down, while Wolves were bottom on three points and stayed up.
Who has the toughest start?
Which team can be hopeful of a flying start?Statisticians Opta have rated the difficulty of each side's first five games.Manchester United and Arsenal, who meet on the opening day, are judged to have the two most difficult starts.United also play Manchester City and Chelsea in their next four games, while Arsenal take on Liverpool and City.Probably not ideal for United boss Ruben Amorim, who many think needs a good start to the campaign after last season's 15th-placed finish.Aston Villa are deemed to have the easiest start, followed by Crystal Palace and West Ham.Despite playing Tottenham, Manchester United and Liverpool in their opening five games, Burnley are judged to have the fourth best start thanks to an early relegation six-pointer at home against fellow promoted side Sunderland.