Widening diplomatic space for Taliban 2.0

Express Tribune

15-07-2025

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On July 3, Russia became the first country to formally recognise the Taliban regime as a legitimate government. China welcomed the Russian move but adopted a cautious approach of not going beyond maintaining contacts with Kabul. Other countries like Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and India also possess ties with the Taliban regime short of granting diplomatic legitimacy. So far 17 countries have established embassies in Kabul but except Russia, none has formally granted diplomatic recognition to Taliban 2.0.
For the Afghan Taliban, the Russian diplomatic recognition is a big victory because so far Kabul has no representation in the UN. Recently the UN General Assembly also passed a resolution against the Taliban regime which was supported by Pakistan but not endorsed by India.
From a pariah state and a source of international condemnation because of its repressive policies against women and girls, Taliban 2.0 failed to comply with the Doha Accord of 2020 which called for forming an inclusive government in Kabul. Since seizing power in August 2021, the Taliban regime is able to widen diplomatic space and seeking full control of Afghanistan. The first Taliban regime which ruled from 1996 and 2001 controlled 90% of Afghan territory and its writ was effectively challenged by the Northern Alliance.
Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and its granting of diplomatic recognition to Kabul means that Afghan Taliban will now try to extend their legitimate status. Russia as a successor state of the Soviet Union is however carrying the baggage of 10 years of its military intervention from 1979 and 1989 which devastated Afghanistan.
According to the July 4, 2025 report of Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), "The normalisation of diplomatic ties with the Taliban since their 2021 takeover has come gradually. China became the first country to accredit a Taliban diplomat as an ambassador in December 2023. Beijing was nonetheless quick to claim that this did not amount to diplomatic recognition. Since then, several other countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Türkiye and Pakistan, have upgraded diplomatic relations to ambassadorial level. So far no Western country has granted legitimacy to Taliban regime despite the fact that the Trump administration is in contact with Kabul on security issues."
Facing threats from IS (K), Russia considers Taliban regime as a lesser evil and its natural ally. The ICG report further states, "Although it has been critical of the presence of transnational jihadist groups in Afghanistan, Moscow has found a willing partner in the Taliban in addressing the threat posed by Islamic State's Khorasan Province (IS-KP), which was involved in the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack that killed 145 people. Moscow went on to remove the Taliban from its list of designated terrorist organisations in April 2025. Russian special envoy Zamir Kabulov stated that Afghan authorities will participate as a full member in the upcoming Moscow Format meeting — a regional forum for addressing concerns around the country."
How is the Taliban regime, despite condemnation from human rights organisations, able to widen its diplomatic space? When Taliban rule is highly authoritarian in nature and prevents any dissent, how has it maintained peace in Afghanistan and given the impression to the outside world that it is focusing on development? Certainly, it is the ambition of Kabul to get maximum legitimacy without reforming its mode of governance, but in view of its rigid approach vis-à-vis women and opposition, it may not be able to achieve its objective so easily.
The widening diplomatic space for the Taliban regime needs to be examined from three ways.
First, the Afghan Taliban seem to be confident that after Russia's diplomatic recognition, other countries will follow suit. According to a BBC report of July 4, "Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said he hoped it would serve as an example to other countries, which have been reluctant to recognise a regime which implements a version of Sharia law along with severe restrictions on women and girls. Others have decried the move, with former Afghan politician Fawzia Koofi saying 'any move by any country to normalise relations with the Taliban will not bring peace it will legitimise impunity'."
For those countries which have established diplomatic contacts with the Taliban regime despite legitimacy issue, it doesn't matter who rules Afghanistan. What matters is that Taliban government, despite its repressive policies, is a reality and controls the country. Economic, security and strategic interests in Afghanistan are more important than human rights violations by the Taliban regime and denial of a democratic mode of governance by Kabul. Critics argue that compromising on Taliban's exclusive form of government is a violation of Doha Accord which will further encourage the Islamic Emirate to deny women and opposition parties their legitimate rights.
Second, Russia's diplomatic recognition of the Taliban regime will certainly push other countries to follow suit. In that case, voices of dissent against Taliban's denial of fundamental rights to girls and women will be further suppressed. It will create a bad precedent and deprive the people of Afghanistan of their democratic rights. When political opportunism on the part of some countries leads to diplomatic recognition to the once outlawed Taliban regime, it means political repressive regimes of North Korea and Myanmar will also get diplomatic space.
Finally, so far Taliban rulers have been able to convince the world that they different from those of their leaders who ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. Although, the Taliban regime is trying to argue that it is fighting the terrorist organisation IS-K, it doesn't mean that its links with TTP don't exist. Islamabad has repeatedly blamed the Afghan Taliban rulers for looking the other way as the TTP carries out terrorist activities inside Pakistan with Indian involvement. Henceforth, the Afghan Taliban's contradictory policy vis-à-vis Pakistan must not lead to Islamabad granting formal diplomatic recognition to Kabul.
The only plausible solution to the Afghan predicament is to launch a political process leading to an inclusive mode of governance instead of granting diplomatic space to a regime which has violated Doha Accord and is in no mood to grant girls, women and opposition their legitimate rights.