2025 BMW Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions: Sam Burns loves Caves Valley

USA Today

2 days ago

The FedExCup Playoffs roll on with this week's 2025 BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. The top 50 players in the FedExCup standings will tee it up with the goal of being one of the 30 golfers advancing to the Tour Championship next week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. The first round begins on Thursday and the tournament, which has no cut, will wrap up on Sunday.
Below, we look at BMW Championship odds from BetMGM Sportsbook's odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
The BMW Championship features a 49-player field with Rory McIlroy back after a week off, but Sepp Straka had to withdraw Monday due to a personal matter. Unsurprisingly, Scottie Scheffler (+225) is the favorite to win, with McIlroy (+700) second and Tommy Fleetwood (+1600) also near the top of the board. The last time this event was played at Caves Valley, Patrick Cantlay (+1800) beat out Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff in 2021.
Caves Valley hosted this event in 2021, but has since undergone an extensive renovation project. It's now a par 70 after being played as a par 72, despite the fact that 60 yards were added to the overall length of the course. (7,601 yards) Every green is newly built, as well, so it will present some different challenges for players after the scores were remarkably low 4 years ago; Cantlay was 27-under at the end of the week.
BMW Championship – Expert picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 6:59 p.m. ET.
Aberg has been up and down for most of the year, but he's been trending up as of late. He finished T-8 at the Genesis Scottish Open, T-23 at the Open Championship and T-9 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He now comes to a course that's long and requires accuracy now that there's thicker rough, which suits his game.
Schauffele didn't have a great week the last time the BMW was at Caves Valley, finishing T-49 with rounds of 75 and 71 on the weekend. However, he's now in desperation mode, needing a good week to make the Tour Championship again. Plus, he's finished T-8, T-7 and T-22 in his last 3 starts worldwide, so he's in fairly good form.
BMW Championship picks – Contenders
Burns lit it up on 2 of the days at Caves Valley in 2021, shooting 64 in the opening round and 65 on Saturday. He finished alone in eighth place in what was a great week for Burns, getting him into the Tour Championship. He's cooled off after a scintillating May and June, but now that he's headed to Caves Valley, he could get hot again.
Bhatia jumped out in front last week with an opening round of 8-under, but he was unable to continue that solid play. Still, he finished 10-under in sixth place, only 6 shots off the lead of Justin Rose and J.J. Spaun. His game is coming together at the right time as he tries to keep things going in the playoffs.
Im had a solid week in Memphis, finishing T-17 despite shooting 1-over in the final round. That got him into the next round of the playoffs and he now gets to play a course where he came in third at 23-under in 2021. It won't be quite the birdie fest it was 4 years ago, but Im is positioned to keep his season rolling this week.
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BMW Championship picks – Long shots
With only 49 players in the field, there aren't many true long shots on the board. However, Harman is a worthy pick at +8000. He tied for 29th here 4 years ago and could have another strong week in Maryland despite not being the longest hitter on tour.
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