Ready for ‘May gray'? SLO County weather forecast calls for partly cloudy skies
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Steve Wilson swilson@star-telegram.com
The windy and cloudy weekend will give way to typical 'May gray' conditions along the coast as winds diminish from Monday through Thursday.
The 2024–25 rain season, measured from July 1, 2024, through June 30, 2025, is rapidly drawing to a close, with little change expected in seasonal rainfall totals.
In a textbook La Niña pattern, most of the Central Coast received only 50% to 60% of normal rainfall. One notable exception was Rocky Butte, in the northwestern corner of San Luis Obispo County, which reached 90% of its seasonal average.
By the end of April:
The Paso Robles Municipal Airport received 7.1 inches of rain — 61% of the average.
The San Luis Obispo County Regional Airport recorded 11.2 inches — 64% of the average.
The Santa Maria Airport measured 7 inches of rain — 58% of average.
The Santa Barbara Municipal Airport also logged 7 inches of rain, but that equated to just 51% of its seasonal norm.
A mostly dry cold front was forecast to pass through the Central Coast on Saturday morning. In its wake, a steep pressure gradient was expected along the California coastline, bringing moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph) northwesterly winds in the coastal regions Saturday afternoon and evening.
These winds will decrease to gale-force levels on Sunday, producing mostly clear to partly cloudy clear skies with a few scattered rain showers in the inland areas.
Santa Lucia (northeasterly) winds will develop Sunday morning and will produce clear skies throughout the Central Coast and warmer air temperatures, followed by strong to gale-force (25 to 32 mph) northwesterly winds Sunday afternoon and evening.
A Catalina Eddy is expected to create gentle to moderate (8 to 18 mph) northwesterly winds and will allow the marine layer with areas of fog and mist (May Gray) to develop in the coastal regions on Monday through Thursday.
Away from the ocean, the inland valleys (Paso Robles) will reach into the low to mid-80s, while the coastal valleys (San Luis Obispo) will remain in the mid-70s. The beaches this afternoon will range between the high 50s to the low 60s.
Strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) northwesterly winds will produce mostly clear skies throughout the Central Coast next Friday and Saturday afternoon.
Long-range numerical models suggest a dry weather pattern through the third week of May. However, forecasting springtime precipitation is notoriously tricky — longer days and increased sunshine add instability to the atmosphere, allowing weather patterns to shift rapidly.
Moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph) northwesterly winds along the California coastline will generate a 12- to 14-foot northwesterly (310-degree deep water) sea and swell (with a 5- to 11-second period) on Saturday, decreasing to 9 to 11 feet on Sunday.
A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly (290-degree deep water) swell (with an 8- to 12-second period) is forecast along our coastline on Monday, decreasing to 3 to 5 feet (with an 8- to 11-second period) on Tuesday into Friday morning.
Increasing northwesterly winds will generate increasing northwesterly sea and swell on Friday afternoon through next week.
Combined with this northwesterly sea and swell will be a 2- to 3-foot Southern Hemisphere (210-degree deep water) swell (with a 14- to 18-second period) on Sunday into Friday.
Surface seawater temperatures will range between 49 and 52 degrees through Sunday, increasing to 52 to 54 degrees on Monday through Friday.
1812: A storm produced snow from Philadelphia to Maine. One foot of snow fell near Keene, New Hampshire, while 9 inches of snow fell on Waltham, Massachusetts, which is located near Boston. (David Ludlum)
2015: Wave heights across south facing beaches in the Southern California Bight reached well over 12-feet-tall. Overall, this was one of the larger Southern Hemisphere swells over the past few years.
LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES
SUN
MON
TUE
WED
THU
FRI
SAT
SUN
43, 70
45, 72
46, 72
47, 77
49, 83
50, 85
51, 85
51, 86
LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS
SUN
MON
TUE
WED
THU
FRI
SAT
SUN
45, 64
48, 65
50, 67
51, 70
52, 74
53, 75
54, 76
54, 77
John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on X @PGE_John.
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